Reason Analogically via Cross-domain Prior Knowledge: An Empirical Study of Cross-domain Knowledge Transfer for In-Context Learning

Despite its success, existing in-context learning (ICL) relies on in-domain expert demonstrations, limiting its applicability when expert annotations are scarce. We posit that different domains may share underlying reasoning structures, enabling source-domain demonstrations to improve target-domain inference despite semantic mismatch. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study of different retrieval methods to validate the feasibility of achieving cross-domain knowledge transfer under the in-context learning setting. Our results demonstrate conditional positive transfer in cross-domain ICL. We identify a clear example absorption threshold: beyond it, positive transfer becomes more likely, and additional demonstrations yield larger gains. Further analysis suggests that these gains stem from reasoning structure repair by retrieved cross-domain examples, rather than semantic cues. Overall, our study validates the feasibility of leveraging cross-domain knowledge transfer to improve cross-domain ICL performance, motivating the community to explore designing more effective retrieval approaches for this novel direction.\footnote{Our implementation is available at https://github.com/littlelaska/ICL-TF4LR}

Towards Effective In-context Cross-domain Knowledge Transfer via Domain-invariant-neurons-based Retrieval

Large language models (LLMs) have made notable progress in logical reasoning, yet still fall short of human-level performance. Current boosting strategies rely on expert-crafted in-domain demonstrations, limiting their applicability in expertise-scarce domains, such as specialized mathematical reasoning, formal logic, or legal analysis. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of leveraging cross-domain demonstrating examples to boost the LLMs' reasoning performance. Despite substantial domain differences, many reusable implicit logical structures are shared across domains. In order to effectively retrieve cross-domain examples for unseen domains under investigation, in this work, we further propose an effective retrieval method, called domain-invariant neurons-based retrieval (\textbf{DIN-Retrieval}). Concisely, DIN-Retrieval first summarizes a hidden representation that is universal across different domains. Then, during the inference stage, we use the DIN vector to retrieve structurally compatible cross-domain demonstrations for the in-context learning. Experimental results in multiple settings for the transfer of mathematical and logical reasoning demonstrate that our method achieves an average improvement of 1.8 over the state-of-the-art methods \footnote{Our implementation is available at https://github.com/Leon221220/DIN-Retrieval}.

FinZero: Launching Multi-modal Financial Time Series Forecast with Large Reasoning Model

Financial time series forecasting is both highly significant and challenging. Previous approaches typically standardized time series data before feeding it into forecasting models, but this encoding process inherently leads to a loss of important information. Moreover, past time series models generally require fixed numbers of variables or lookback window lengths, which further limits the scalability of time series forecasting. Besides, the interpretability and the uncertainty in forecasting remain areas requiring further research, as these factors directly impact the reliability and practical value of predictions. To address these issues, we first construct a diverse financial image-text dataset (FVLDB) and develop the Uncertainty-adjusted Group Relative Policy Optimization (UARPO) method to enable the model not only output predictions but also analyze the uncertainty of those predictions. We then proposed FinZero, a multimodal pre-trained model finetuned by UARPO to perform reasoning, prediction, and analytical understanding on the FVLDB financial time series. Extensive experiments validate that FinZero exhibits strong adaptability and scalability. After fine-tuning with UARPO, FinZero achieves an approximate 13.48\% improvement in prediction accuracy over GPT-4o in the high-confidence group, demonstrating the effectiveness of reinforcement learning fine-tuning in multimodal large model, including in financial time series forecasting tasks.

FinTSBridge: A New Evaluation Suite for Real-world Financial Prediction with Advanced Time Series Models

Despite the growing attention to time series forecasting in recent years, many studies have proposed various solutions to address the challenges encountered in time series prediction, aiming to improve forecasting performance. However, effectively applying these time series forecasting models to the field of financial asset pricing remains a challenging issue. There is still a need for a bridge to connect cutting-edge time series forecasting models with financial asset pricing. To bridge this gap, we have undertaken the following efforts: 1) We constructed three datasets from the financial domain; 2) We selected over ten time series forecasting models from recent studies and validated their performance in financial time series; 3) We developed new metrics, msIC and msIR, in addition to MSE and MAE, to showcase the time series correlation captured by the models; 4) We designed financial-specific tasks for these three datasets and assessed the practical performance and application potential of these forecasting models in important financial problems. We hope the developed new evaluation suite, FinTSBridge, can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness and robustness of advanced forecasting models in finanical domains.

Assessing Uncertainty in Stock Returns: A Gaussian Mixture Distribution-Based Method

This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture distribution to capture the complex, time-varying nature of asset return distributions in the Chinese stock market. By incorporating the Gaussian mixture distribution, our approach effectively characterizes short-term fluctuations and non-traditional features of stock returns, such as skewness and heavy tails, that are often overlooked by traditional models. Compared to GARCH models and their variants, our method demonstrates superior performance in volatility estimation, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility. It provides more accurate volatility forecasts and offers unique risk insights for different assets, thereby deepening the understanding of return uncertainty. Additionally, we propose a novel use of Code embedding which utilizes a bag-of-words approach to train hidden representations of stock codes and transforms the uncertainty attributes of stocks into high-dimensional vectors. These vectors are subsequently reduced to two dimensions, allowing the observation of similarity among different stocks. This visualization facilitates the identification of asset clusters with similar risk profiles, offering valuable insights for portfolio management and risk mitigation. Since we predict the uncertainty of returns by estimating their latent distribution, it is challenging to evaluate the return distribution when the true distribution is unobservable. However, we can measure it through the CRPS to assess how well the predicted distribution matches the true returns, and through MSE and QLIKE metrics to evaluate the error between the volatility level of the predicted distribution and proxy measures of true volatility.

PSformer: Parameter-efficient Transformer with Segment Attention for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting remains a critical challenge across various domains, often complicated by high-dimensional data and long-term dependencies. This paper presents a novel transformer architecture for time series forecasting, incorporating two key innovations: parameter sharing (PS) and Spatial-Temporal Segment Attention (SegAtt). We also define the time series segment as the concatenation of sequence patches from the same positions across different variables. The proposed model, PSformer, reduces the number of training parameters through the parameter sharing mechanism, thereby improving model efficiency and scalability. The introduction of SegAtt could enhance the capability of capturing local spatio-temporal dependencies by computing attention over the segments, and improve global representation by integrating information across segments. The combination of parameter sharing and SegAtt significantly improves the forecasting performance. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that PSformer outperforms popular baselines and other transformer-based approaches in terms of accuracy and scalability, establishing itself as an accurate and scalable tool for time series forecasting.