Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data

Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes in large observational studies is computationally demanding, particularly when outcomes are rare. While g-formula-based methods such as the iterative conditional expectation (ICE) estimator provide a principled framework for longitudinal causal inference, they become computationally expensive, especially when bootstrap-based variance estimation is required. In addition, outcome rarity at each time point induces severe class imbalance, leading to instability and convergence issues in logistic regression and related models. To address these challenges, we propose a principled subsampling and reweighting strategy for longitudinal survival data that can be applied to a range of existing causal effect estimators in this setting, including the ICE estimator. The proposed method substantially reduces computational burden while preserving consistency and improving estimation stability in rare-outcome settings. We evaluate the method through simulations and validate it using a large-scale EHR cohort study on social and behavioral determinants of health (SBDH) and suicide risk, demonstrating its effectiveness for modeling rare outcomes in longitudinal data.

Counterfactual Graph for Multi-Agent LLM Calibration

Multi-agent LLM systems often treat agreement as evidence: when many agents in a panel give the same answer, that answer is assumed to be more reliable. We show that this assumption can fail after agents communicate. Communication can induce correlated failures and false consensus, so the same vote share may reflect reliable agreement in one topology but over-confidence in another. We propose CAGE-CAL, a counterfactual agent-graph calibration framework for multi-agent LLMs. For each query, CAGE-CAL compares an observed post-communication agent graph with a matched counterfactual no-communication graph, capturing both pairwise failure correlations and group-level dependencies. Rather than simply counting how many agents agree, CAGE-CAL estimates the counterfactual shift between observed and no-communication dependence, and calibrates confidence accordingly. Across five benchmarks, CAGE-CAL improves reliability discrimination with competitive ECE, and its calibrated confidence further improves topology selection over the best fixed-topology strategy.

RICE-PO: Turning Retrieval Interactions into Credit Signals for Reasoning Agents

Retrieval is increasingly moving from one-shot matching toward interactive reasoning, where language agents iteratively inspect evidence, reformulate queries, and search again. Training such agents raises a credit-assignment challenge: executable actions such as queries or summaries can be directly evaluated by the retriever, while latent reasoning steps are not directly observable and only affect future executable actions. This asymmetry makes outcome-level reward assignment unreliable, as the same final reward may credit reasoning steps that did not actually shape retrieval success. We propose RICE-PO, a critic-free policy optimization framework that converts retrieval interactions into localized learning signals. RICE-PO selects high-uncertainty executable actions as anchors, evaluates local counterfactual branches using retrieval metrics, and propagates credit to latent reasoning steps only when reasoning-to-action influence is strong and future residual effects are stable. On BRIGHT and BEIR, RICE-PO consistently outperforms prompt-based agents and group-based RL baselines under the same retriever setting. These results show that the structure of agent-environment interaction itself can provide useful supervision for training reasoning-based retrieval agents.

In-Context Optimization for Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Gradient-Descent Perspective

In-context learning has recently been linked to implicit gradient descent in linear self-attention models, suggesting that context can induce a forward-pass update. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) also relies on context, but retrieved documents are usually treated as static evidence rather than signals for adaptation. We study RAG as an in-context optimization process. First, we show that one linear self-attention layer can implement one gradient-descent step on a unified linearized RAG objective covering both projection-based and dot-product retrieval interfaces. This gives an exact regime where retrieval-augmented prediction and in-context optimization coincide. We use this result not as a literal model of LLM computation, but as a guide for adapting the interaction between queries and retrieved evidence. We then test the boundary of this correspondence: it remains stable under controlled linear extensions, but becomes feature-distribution dependent under nonlinear architectures. Finally, we turn this view into a lightweight method for frozen RAG LLMs. The method keeps the retriever and backbone fixed, and predicts a context-conditioned update to a generator-side evidence-use interface. Across seven QA benchmarks, two retrievers, and two frozen LLM backbones, this forward-only update improves a shared-interface baseline, transfers to held-out tasks, and approaches test-time gradient adaptation at much lower per-query cost.

SEP-Attack: A Simple and Effective Paradigm for Transfer-Based Textual Adversarial Attack

Despite the strong performance of deep neural networks in modern Web and language applications, they remain vulnerable to adversarial attacks, especially transferable attacks that generate adversarial examples using surrogate models without accessing the victim model. Transferable attacks in the text domain are still under-explored, with only a few studies addressing this challenging issue, often with suboptimal results due to equal treatment of submodels or inaccurate estimation of importance scores. To address these challenges, we propose a simple yet effective paradigm for transfer-based textual adversarial attack, named SEP-Attack. Specifically, we employ the Determinantal Point Process (DPP) to generate diverse surrogate ensemble weights, representing the transferability of submodels. Using these weights, we introduce a new metric to evaluate prediction confidence scores, which in turn are used to calculate word importance scores and generate adversarial candidates. Finally, we quantify the transferability score for each candidate and select the top ones as the final transferable adversarial examples. Experiments conducted on four datasets and two real-world APIs validate the efficacy of SEP-Attack, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.

Towards a General Intelligence and Interface for Wearable Health Data

While ubiquitous wearable sensors capture a wealth of behavioral and physiological information, effectively transforming these signals into personalized health insights is challenging. Specifically, converting low-level sensor data into representations capable of characterizing higher-level states is difficult due to high phenotypic diversity and variation in individual baseline health, physiology, and lifestyle factors. Moreover, collecting wearable data paired with health outcome annotations is laborious and expensive, and retrospective annotation remains practically unfeasible, contributing to a scarcity of data with high-quality labels. To overcome these limitations, we propose a foundation model for wearable health that is pretrained on more than one trillion minutes of unlabeled sensor signals drawn from a large cohort of five million participants. We demonstrate that the joint scaling of model capacity and pretraining data volume leads to systematic improvements in performance, as evaluated on a diverse set of 35 health prediction tasks, spanning cardiovascular, metabolic, sleep, and mental health, as well as lifestyle choices and demographic factors. We find that this population scale representation unlocks label-efficient few-shot learning and generative capabilities for robust daily metric estimation. To further leverage this learned representation, we deploy a classroom of LLM agents to autonomously search the space of downstream predictive heads built on the model embeddings, showing broad performance improvements that increase with LLM model capacity. Finally, we show how integrating these downstream predictors into a Personal Health Agent can support model responses that are more relevant, contextually aware, and safe, and we validate this via 1,860 ratings from a cohort of clinicians.

From Where Things Are to What They Are For: Benchmarking Spatial-Functional Intelligence in Multimodal LLMs

Human-level agentic intelligence extends beyond low-level geometric perception, evolving from recognizing where things are to understanding what they are for. While existing benchmarks effectively evaluate the geometric perception capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they fall short of probing the higher-order cognitive abilities required for grounded intelligence. To address this gap, we introduce the Spatial-Functional Intelligence Benchmark (SFI-Bench), a video-based benchmark with over 1,500 expert-annotated questions derived from diverse egocentric indoor video scans. SFI-Bench systematically evaluates two complementary dimensions of advanced reasoning: (1) Structured Spatial Reasoning, which requires understanding complex layouts and forming coherent spatial representations, and (2) Functional Reasoning, which involves inferring object affordances and their context-dependent utility. The benchmark includes tasks such as conditional counting, multi-hop relational reasoning, functional pairing, and knowledge-grounded troubleshooting, directly challenging models to integrate perception, memory, and inference. Our experiments reveal that current MLLMs consistently struggle to combine spatial memory with functional reasoning and external knowledge, highlighting a critical bottleneck in achieving grounded intelligence. SFI-Bench therefore provides a diagnostic tool for measuring progress toward more cognitively capable and truly grounded multimodal agents.

CoDaS: AI Co-Data-Scientist for Biomarker Discovery via Wearable Sensors

Scientific discovery in digital health requires converting continuous physiological signals from wearable devices into clinically actionable biomarkers. We introduce CoDaS (AI Co-Data-Scientist), a multi-agent system that structures biomarker discovery as an iterative process combining hypothesis generation, statistical analysis, adversarial validation, and literature-grounded reasoning with human oversight using large-scale wearable datasets. Across three cohorts totaling 9,279 participant-observations, CoDaS identified 41 candidate digital biomarkers for mental health and 25 for metabolic outcomes, each subjected to an internal validation battery spanning replication, stability, robustness, and discriminative power. Across two independent depression cohorts, CoDaS surfaced circadian instability-related features in both datasets, reflected in sleep duration variability (DWB, ρ= 0.252, p < 0.001) and sleep onset variability (GLOBEM, ρ= 0.126, p < 0.001). In a metabolic cohort, CoDaS derived a cardiovascular fitness index (steps/resting heart rate; ρ= -0.374, p < 0.001), and recovered established clinical associations, including the hepatic function ratio (AST/ALT; ρ= -0.375, p < 0.001), a known correlate of insulin resistance. Incorporating CoDaS-derived features alongside demographic variables led to modest but consistent improvements in predictive performance, with cross-validated ΔR^2 increases of 0.040 for depression and 0.021 for insulin resistance. These findings suggest that CoDaS enables systematic and traceable hypothesis generation and prioritization for biomarker discovery from large-scale wearable data.

Rethinking Patient Education as Multi-turn Multi-modal Interaction

Most medical multimodal benchmarks focus on static tasks such as image question answering, report generation, and plain-language rewriting. Patient education is more demanding: systems must identify relevant evidence across images, show patients where to look, explain findings in accessible language, and handle confusion or distress. Yet most patient education work remains text-only, even though combined image-and-text explanations may better support understanding. We introduce MedImageEdu, a benchmark for multi-turn, evidence-grounded radiology patient education. Each case provides a radiology report with report text and case images. A DoctorAgent interacts with a PatientAgent, conditioned on a hidden profile that captures factors such as education level, health literacy, and personality. When a patient question would benefit from visual support, the DoctorAgent can issue drawing instructions grounded in the report, case images, and the current question to a benchmark-provided drawing tool. The tool returns image(s), after which the DoctorAgent produces a final multimodal response consisting of the image(s) and a grounded plain-language explanation. MedImageEdu contains 150 cases from three sources and evaluates both the consultation process and the final multimodal response along five dimensions: Consultation, Safety and Scope, Language Quality, Drawing Quality, and Image-Text Response Quality. Across representative open- and closed-source vision-language model agents, we find three consistent gaps: fluent language often outpaces faithful visual grounding, safety is the weakest dimension across disease categories, and emotionally tense interactions are harder than low education or low health literacy. MedImageEdu provides a controlled testbed for assessing whether multimodal agents can teach from evidence rather than merely answer from text.

SEPTQ: A Simple and Effective Post-Training Quantization Paradigm for Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance in various domains, but they are constrained by massive computational and storage costs. Quantization, an effective technique for compressing models to fit resource-limited devices while preserving generative quality, encompasses two primary methods: quantization aware training (QAT) and post-training quantization (PTQ). QAT involves additional retraining or fine-tuning, thus inevitably resulting in high training cost and making it unsuitable for LLMs. Consequently, PTQ has become the research hotspot in recent quantization methods. However, existing PTQ methods usually rely on various complex computation procedures and suffer from considerable performance degradation under low-bit quantization settings. To alleviate the above issues, we propose a simple and effective post-training quantization paradigm for LLMs, named SEPTQ. Specifically, SEPTQ first calculates the importance score for each element in the weight matrix and determines the quantization locations in a static global manner. Then it utilizes the mask matrix which represents the important locations to quantize and update the associated weights column-by-column until the appropriate quantized weight matrix is obtained. Compared with previous methods, SEPTQ simplifies the post-training quantization procedure into only two steps, and considers the effectiveness and efficiency simultaneously. Experimental results on various datasets across a suite of models ranging from millions to billions in different quantization bit-levels demonstrate that SEPTQ significantly outperforms other strong baselines, especially in low-bit quantization scenarios.