Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scaling

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 will be released to facilitate further research.

BTTackler: A Diagnosis-based Framework for Efficient Deep Learning Hyperparameter Optimization

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is known to be costly in deep learning, especially when leveraging automated approaches. Most of the existing automated HPO methods are accuracy-based, i.e., accuracy metrics are used to guide the trials of different hyperparameter configurations amongst a specific search space. However, many trials may encounter severe training problems, such as vanishing gradients and insufficient convergence, which can hardly be reflected by accuracy metrics in the early stages of the training and often result in poor performance. This leads to an inefficient optimization trajectory because the bad trials occupy considerable computation resources and reduce the probability of finding excellent hyperparameter configurations within a time limitation. In this paper, we propose \textbf{Bad Trial Tackler (BTTackler)}, a novel HPO framework that introduces training diagnosis to identify training problems automatically and hence tackles bad trials. BTTackler diagnoses each trial by calculating a set of carefully designed quantified indicators and triggers early termination if any training problems are detected. Evaluations are performed on representative HPO tasks consisting of three classical deep neural networks (DNN) and four widely used HPO methods. To better quantify the effectiveness of an automated HPO method, we propose two new measurements based on accuracy and time consumption. Results show the advantage of BTTackler on two-fold: (1) it reduces 40.33\% of time consumption to achieve the same accuracy comparable to baseline methods on average and (2) it conducts 44.5\% more top-10 trials than baseline methods on average within a given time budget. We also released an open-source Python library that allows users to easily apply BTTackler to automated HPO processes with minimal code changes.

GeoPT: Scaling Physics Simulation via Lifted Geometric Pre-Training

Neural simulators promise efficient surrogates for physics simulation, but scaling them is bottlenecked by the prohibitive cost of generating high-fidelity training data. Pre-training on abundant off-the-shelf geometries offers a natural alternative, yet faces a fundamental gap: supervision on static geometry alone ignores dynamics and can lead to negative transfer on physics tasks. We present GeoPT, a unified pre-trained model for general physics simulation based on lifted geometric pre-training. The core idea is to augment geometry with synthetic dynamics, enabling dynamics-aware self-supervision without physics labels. Pre-trained on over one million samples, GeoPT consistently improves industrial-fidelity benchmarks spanning fluid mechanics for cars, aircraft, and ships, and solid mechanics in crash simulation, reducing labeled data requirements by 20-60% and accelerating convergence by 2$\times$. These results show that lifting with synthetic dynamics bridges the geometry-physics gap, unlocking a scalable path for neural simulation and potentially beyond. Code is available at https://github.com/Physics-Scaling/GeoPT.

JEPA-VLA: Video Predictive Embedding is Needed for VLA Models

Recent vision-language-action (VLA) models built upon pretrained vision-language models (VLMs) have achieved significant improvements in robotic manipulation. However, current VLAs still suffer from low sample efficiency and limited generalization. This paper argues that these limitations are closely tied to an overlooked component, pretrained visual representation, which offers insufficient knowledge on both aspects of environment understanding and policy prior. Through an in-depth analysis, we find that commonly used visual representations in VLAs, whether pretrained via language-image contrastive learning or image-based self-supervised learning, remain inadequate at capturing crucial, task-relevant environment information and at inducing effective policy priors, i.e., anticipatory knowledge of how the environment evolves under successful task execution. In contrast, we discover that predictive embeddings pretrained on videos, in particular V-JEPA 2, are adept at flexibly discarding unpredictable environment factors and encoding task-relevant temporal dynamics, thereby effectively compensating for key shortcomings of existing visual representations in VLAs. Building on these observations, we introduce JEPA-VLA, a simple yet effective approach that adaptively integrates predictive embeddings into existing VLAs. Our experiments demonstrate that JEPA-VLA yields substantial performance gains across a range of benchmarks, including LIBERO, LIBERO-plus, RoboTwin2.0, and real-robot tasks.

It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a rigorous human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 representative TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

Brep2Shape: Boundary and Shape Representation Alignment via Self-Supervised Transformers

Boundary representation (B-rep) is the industry standard for computer-aided design (CAD). While deep learning shows promise in processing B-rep models, existing methods suffer from a representation gap: continuous approaches offer analytical precision but are visually abstract, whereas discrete methods provide intuitive clarity at the expense of geometric precision. To bridge this gap, we introduce Brep2Shape, a novel self-supervised pre-training method designed to align abstract boundary representations with intuitive shape representations. Our method employs a geometry-aware task where the model learns to predict dense spatial points from parametric Bézier control points, enabling the network to better understand physical manifolds derived from abstract coefficients. To enhance this alignment, we propose a Dual Transformer backbone with parallel streams that independently encode surface and curve tokens to capture their distinct geometric properties. Moreover, the topology attention is integrated to model the interdependencies between surfaces and curves, thereby maintaining topological consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that Brep2Shape offers significant scalability, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy and faster convergence across various downstream tasks.

DiTS: Multimodal Diffusion Transformers Are Time Series Forecasters

While generative modeling on time series facilitates more capable and flexible probabilistic forecasting, existing generative time series models do not address the multi-dimensional properties of time series data well. The prevalent architecture of Diffusion Transformers (DiT), which relies on simplistic conditioning controls and a single-stream Transformer backbone, tends to underutilize cross-variate dependencies in covariate-aware forecasting. Inspired by Multimodal Diffusion Transformers that integrate textual guidance into video generation, we propose Diffusion Transformers for Time Series (DiTS), a general-purpose architecture that frames endogenous and exogenous variates as distinct modalities. To better capture both inter-variate and intra-variate dependencies, we design a dual-stream Transformer block tailored for time-series data, comprising a Time Attention module for autoregressive modeling along the temporal dimension and a Variate Attention module for cross-variate modeling. Unlike the common approach for images, which flattens 2D token grids into 1D sequences, our design leverages the low-rank property inherent in multivariate dependencies, thereby reducing computational costs. Experiments show that DiTS achieves state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks, regardless of the presence of future exogenous variate observations, demonstrating unique generative forecasting strengths over traditional deterministic deep forecasting models.

Transolver-3: Scaling Up Transformer Solvers to Industrial-Scale Geometries

Deep learning has emerged as a transformative tool for the neural surrogate modeling of partial differential equations (PDEs), known as neural PDE solvers. However, scaling these solvers to industrial-scale geometries with over $10^8$ cells remains a fundamental challenge due to the prohibitive memory complexity of processing high-resolution meshes. We present Transolver-3, a new member of the Transolver family as a highly scalable framework designed for high-fidelity physics simulations. To bridge the gap between limited GPU capacity and the resolution requirements of complex engineering tasks, we introduce two key architectural optimizations: faster slice and deslice by exploiting matrix multiplication associative property and geometry slice tiling to partition the computation of physical states. Combined with an amortized training strategy by learning on random subsets of original high-resolution meshes and a physical state caching technique during inference, Transolver-3 enables high-fidelity field prediction on industrial-scale meshes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Transolver-3 is capable of handling meshes with over 160 million cells, achieving impressive performance across three challenging simulation benchmarks, including aircraft and automotive design tasks.

Visual Generation Unlocks Human-Like Reasoning through Multimodal World Models

Humans construct internal world models and reason by manipulating the concepts within these models. Recent advances in AI, particularly chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, approximate such human cognitive abilities, where world models are believed to be embedded within large language models. Expert-level performance in formal and abstract domains such as mathematics and programming has been achieved in current systems by relying predominantly on verbal reasoning. However, they still lag far behind humans in domains like physical and spatial intelligence, which require richer representations and prior knowledge. The emergence of unified multimodal models (UMMs) capable of both verbal and visual generation has therefore sparked interest in more human-like reasoning grounded in complementary multimodal pathways, though their benefits remain unclear. From a world-model perspective, this paper presents the first principled study of when and how visual generation benefits reasoning. Our key position is the visual superiority hypothesis: for certain tasks--particularly those grounded in the physical world--visual generation more naturally serves as world models, whereas purely verbal world models encounter bottlenecks arising from representational limitations or insufficient prior knowledge. Theoretically, we formalize internal world modeling as a core component of CoT reasoning and analyze distinctions among different forms of world models. Empirically, we identify tasks that necessitate interleaved visual-verbal CoT reasoning, constructing a new evaluation suite, VisWorld-Eval. Controlled experiments on a state-of-the-art UMM show that interleaved CoT significantly outperforms purely verbal CoT on tasks that favor visual world modeling, but offers no clear advantage otherwise. Together, this work clarifies the potential of multimodal world modeling for more powerful, human-like multimodal AI.

CoRA: Covariate-Aware Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on large-scale multivariate datasets, most TSFMs are typically pre-trained on univariate time series. This limitation renders them oblivious to crucial information from diverse covariates in real-world forecasting tasks. To further enhance the performance of TSFMs, we propose a general covariate-aware adaptation (CoRA) framework for TSFMs. It leverages pre-trained backbones of foundation models while effectively incorporating exogenous covariates from various modalities, including time series, language, and images, to improve the quality of predictions. Technically, CoRA maintains the equivalence of initialization and parameter consistency during adaptation. With preserved backbones of foundation models as frozen feature extractors, the outcome embeddings from foundation models are empirically demonstrated more informative than raw data. Further, CoRA employs a novel Granger Causality Embedding (GCE) to automatically evaluate covariates regarding their causal predictability with respect to the target variate. We incorporate these weighted embeddings with a zero-initialized condition-injection mechanism, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained foundation models and gradually integrates exogenous information. Extensive experiments show that CoRA of TSFMs surpasses state-of-the-art covariate-aware deep forecasters with full or few-shot training samples, achieving 31.1% MSE reduction on covariate-aware forecasting. Compared to other adaptation methods, CoRA exhibits strong compatibility with various advanced TSFMs and extends the scope of covariates to other modalities, presenting a practical paradigm for the application of TSFMs.