Abstract:When a long-horizon agent execution fails, outcome-level evaluation reveals the unsuccessful result but not where the decisive error entered the trajectory. Developers must then inspect the full execution to identify the responsible role and localize the earliest decisive root-cause step. Existing failure-attribution benchmarks largely focus on shorter traces, leaving diagnosis across hundreds of recorded steps underexplored. We introduce LongRCA Bench, comprising 1,140 failed trajectories across five domains without injected errors. It provides independently scored human labels for the responsible role and earliest decisive root-cause step. The median trajectory contains 145 steps, and the strongest baseline reaches only 13.2% exact root-step accuracy. We further present Root-Cause Trajectory Attribution (RCTA), a training-free method that retrieves candidate error steps from segment summaries and traces them to available earlier handoff instructions. Using the same backbone, benchmark instances, and scoring protocol, RCTA reaches 51.1% responsible-role accuracy and 24.1% exact root-step accuracy. These results highlight the need to evaluate responsible-role attribution and exact root-step localization as separate targets in long-trajectory failure diagnosis.
Abstract:Ultra-High-Resolution (UHR) remote sensing image understanding requires Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to capture both the global scene layout and sparse yet task-critical local details under limited computational budgets. Existing methods mainly follow two paradigms. One is passive perception, which relies on resolution expansion or token compression and may therefore discard fine-grained details. The other is active perception, which depends on multi-round zooming and search, but suffers from high latency, contextual fragmentation, and error accumulation. We argue that a more effective path toward UHR understanding lies not in accessing more, but in organizing better. To this end, we propose WeaveEarth, a training-free framework that reformulates UHR understanding as a problem of structured evidence construction and reasoning under global context constraints. Specifically, WeaveEarth first employs Global-Aware Evidence Construction to select a compact, low-redundancy, and spatially complementary Minimal Support Evidence Set. It then introduces Structured Evidence Reasoning, which weaves local evidence, spatial metadata, and relative topology into a unified reasoning interface, thereby enhancing the VLM's ability to perform global-local joint reasoning. Extensive experiments show that WeaveEarth consistently outperforms strong baselines and existing UHR methods across multiple UHR remote sensing benchmarks and multiple frozen VLM backbones. Code is available at https://github.com/XianZhi-Ma/WeaveEarth.
Abstract:LLM-based agents are reshaping microservice operations into AgentOps, where benchmarks are key to evaluating failure diagnosis over multimodal observability data. However, existing benchmarks remain largely outcome-oriented: they score only the final answer and fail to assess the systematic reasoning process in failure diagnosis. We address this gap by introducing two large-scale datasets (AIOps2025 and RCA100) under a reasoning-process evaluation paradigm that assesses agentic diagnostic capability along three dimensions: Localization (where the fault occurs), Identification (what type of fault it is), and Reason (whether the reasoning trace is grounded in relevant evidence). Together, the two datasets comprise over 500 expert-labeled failure cases across two representative microservice systems (HipsterShop and the OpenTelemetry Demo Store). They cover diverse fault scenarios across resource, network, runtime, middleware/database, and application-logic categories and provide fine-grained causal evidence to support agent learning and reasoning-process evaluation. Beyond scale and coverage, the datasets have been carefully labelled by domain experts and validated through large-scale competitions, supporting more than 6,000 participating teams. This makes them not only expert-labeled diagnostic datasets, but also competition-validated benchmarks for evaluating agentic failure diagnosis in real-world microservice environments. Datasets are available at https://www.aiops.cn/gitlab/aiops-live-benchmark/agenticopseval.
Abstract:Driven by the increasingly complex and decision-oriented demands of time series analysis, we introduce the Semantic-Conditional Time Series Reasoning task, which extends conventional time series analysis beyond purely numerical modeling to incorporate contextual and semantic understanding. To further enhance the mode's reasoning capabilities on complex time series problems, we propose a two-round reinforcement learning framework: the first round strengthens the mode's perception of fundamental temporal primitives, while the second focuses on semantic-conditioned reasoning. The resulting model, KairosVL, achieves competitive performance across both synthetic and real-world tasks. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate that our framework not only boosts performance but also preserves intrinsic reasoning ability and significantly improves generalization to unseen scenarios. To summarize, our work highlights the potential of combining semantic reasoning with temporal modeling and provides a practical framework for real-world time series intelligence, which is in urgent demand.
Abstract:Research in time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has largely focused on developing increasingly sophisticated, hard-to-train, and expensive-to-infer neural architectures. We revisit this paradigm and show that a simple linear autoregressive anomaly score with the closed-form solution provided by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art deep detectors. From a theoretical perspective, we show that linear models capture a broad class of anomaly types, estimating a finite-history Gaussian process conditional density. From a practical side, across extensive univariate and multivariate benchmarks, the proposed approach achieves superior accuracy while requiring orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Thus, future research should consistently include strong linear baselines and, more importantly, develop new benchmarks with richer temporal structures pinpointing the advantages of deep learning models.
Abstract:In the time-series domain, an increasing number of works combine text with temporal data to leverage the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for various downstream time-series understanding tasks. This enables a single model to flexibly perform tasks that previously required specialized models for each domain. However, these methods typically rely on text labels for supervision during training, biasing the model toward textual cues while potentially neglecting the full temporal features. Such a bias can lead to outputs that contradict the underlying time-series context. To address this issue, we construct the EvalTS benchmark, comprising 10 tasks across three difficulty levels, from fundamental temporal pattern recognition to complex real-world reasoning, to evaluate models under more challenging and realistic scenarios. We also propose TimeSense, a multimodal framework that makes LLMs proficient in time-series analysis by balancing textual reasoning with a preserved temporal sense. TimeSense incorporates a Temporal Sense module that reconstructs the input time-series within the model's context, ensuring that textual reasoning is grounded in the time-series dynamics. Moreover, to enhance spatial understanding of time-series data, we explicitly incorporate coordinate-based positional embeddings, which provide each time point with spatial context and enable the model to capture structural dependencies more effectively. Experimental results demonstrate that TimeSense achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple tasks, and it particularly outperforms existing methods on complex multi-dimensional time-series reasoning tasks.




Abstract:Web service administrators must ensure the stability of multiple systems by promptly detecting anomalies in Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Achieving the goal of "train once, infer across scenarios" remains a fundamental challenge for time series anomaly detection models. Beyond improving zero-shot generalization, such models must also flexibly handle sequences of varying lengths during inference, ranging from one hour to one week, without retraining. Conventional approaches rely on sliding-window encoding and self-supervised learning, which restrict inference to fixed-length inputs. Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot capabilities across general domains. However, when applied to time series data, they face inherent limitations due to context length. To address this issue, we propose ViTs, a Vision-Language Model (VLM)-based framework that converts time series curves into visual representations. By rescaling time series images, temporal dependencies are preserved while maintaining a consistent input size, thereby enabling efficient processing of arbitrarily long sequences without context constraints. Training VLMs for this purpose introduces unique challenges, primarily due to the scarcity of aligned time series image-text data. To overcome this, we employ an evolutionary algorithm to automatically generate thousands of high-quality image-text pairs and design a three-stage training pipeline consisting of: (1) time series knowledge injection, (2) anomaly detection enhancement, and (3) anomaly reasoning refinement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ViTs substantially enhance the ability of VLMs to understand and detect anomalies in time series data. All datasets and code will be publicly released at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ViTs-C484/.
Abstract:Recent advances in lightweight time series forecasting models suggest the inherent simplicity of time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we present CMoS, a super-lightweight time series forecasting model. Instead of learning the embedding of the shapes, CMoS directly models the spatial correlations between different time series chunks. Additionally, we introduce a Correlation Mixing technique that enables the model to capture diverse spatial correlations with minimal parameters, and an optional Periodicity Injection technique to ensure faster convergence. Despite utilizing as low as 1% of the lightweight model DLinear's parameters count, experimental results demonstrate that CMoS outperforms existing state-of-the-art models across multiple datasets. Furthermore, the learned weights of CMoS exhibit great interpretability, providing practitioners with valuable insights into temporal structures within specific application scenarios.




Abstract:Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has become an essential component of large-scale cloud services and web systems because it can promptly identify anomalies, providing early warnings to prevent greater losses. Deep learning-based forecasting methods have become very popular in TSAD due to their powerful learning capabilities. However, accurate predictions don't necessarily lead to better anomaly detection. Due to the common occurrence of noise, i.e., local peaks and drops in time series, existing black-box learning methods can easily learn these unintended patterns, significantly affecting anomaly detection performance. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) offers a potential solution by decomposing complex temporal sequences into a combination of multiple univariate functions, making the training process more controllable. However, KAN optimizes univariate functions using spline functions, which are also susceptible to the influence of local anomalies. To address this issue, we present KAN-AD, which leverages the Fourier series to emphasize global temporal patterns, thereby mitigating the influence of local peaks and drops. KAN-AD improves both effectiveness and efficiency by transforming the existing black-box learning approach into learning the weights preceding univariate functions. Experimental results show that, compared to the current state-of-the-art, we achieved an accuracy increase of 15% while boosting inference speed by 55 times.
Abstract:Driven by the proliferation of real-world application scenarios and scales, time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has attracted considerable scholarly and industrial interest. However, existing algorithms exhibit a gap in terms of training paradigm, online detection paradigm, and evaluation criteria when compared to the actual needs of real-world industrial systems. Firstly, current algorithms typically train a specific model for each individual time series. In a large-scale online system with tens of thousands of curves, maintaining such a multitude of models is impractical. The performance of using merely one single unified model to detect anomalies remains unknown. Secondly, most TSAD models are trained on the historical part of a time series and are tested on its future segment. In distributed systems, however, there are frequent system deployments and upgrades, with new, previously unseen time series emerging daily. The performance of testing newly incoming unseen time series on current TSAD algorithms remains unknown. Lastly, although some papers have conducted detailed surveys, the absence of an online evaluation platform prevents answering questions like "Who is the best at anomaly detection at the current stage?" In this paper, we propose TimeSeriesBench, an industrial-grade benchmark that we continuously maintain as a leaderboard. On this leaderboard, we assess the performance of existing algorithms across more than 168 evaluation settings combining different training and testing paradigms, evaluation metrics and datasets. Through our comprehensive analysis of the results, we provide recommendations for the future design of anomaly detection algorithms. To address known issues with existing public datasets, we release an industrial dataset to the public together with TimeSeriesBench. All code, data, and the online leaderboard have been made publicly available.