Deconfounding Duration Bias in Watch-time Prediction for Video Recommendation

Watch-time prediction remains to be a key factor in reinforcing user engagement via video recommendations. It has become increasingly important given the ever-growing popularity of online videos. However, prediction of watch time not only depends on the match between the user and the video but is often mislead by the duration of the video itself. With the goal of improving watch time, recommendation is always biased towards videos with long duration. Models trained on this imbalanced data face the risk of bias amplification, which misguides platforms to over-recommend videos with long duration but overlook the underlying user interests. This paper presents the first work to study duration bias in watch-time prediction for video recommendation. We employ a causal graph illuminating that duration is a confounding factor that concurrently affects video exposure and watch-time prediction -- the first effect on video causes the bias issue and should be eliminated, while the second effect on watch time originates from video intrinsic characteristics and should be preserved. To remove the undesired bias but leverage the natural effect, we propose a Duration Deconfounded Quantile-based (D2Q) watch-time prediction framework, which allows for scalability to perform on industry production systems. Through extensive offline evaluation and live experiments, we showcase the effectiveness of this duration-deconfounding framework by significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art baselines. We have fully launched our approach on Kuaishou App, which has substantially improved real-time video consumption due to more accurate watch-time predictions.

On the representation and embedding of knowledge bases beyond binary relations

The models developed to date for knowledge base embedding are all based on the assumption that the relations contained in knowledge bases are binary. For the training and testing of these embedding models, multi-fold (or n-ary) relational data are converted to triples (e.g., in FB15K dataset) and interpreted as instances of binary relations. This paper presents a canonical representation of knowledge bases containing multi-fold relations. We show that the existing embedding models on the popular FB15K datasets correspond to a sub-optimal modelling framework, resulting in a loss of structural information. We advocate a novel modelling framework, which models multi-fold relations directly using this canonical representation. Using this framework, the existing TransH model is generalized to a new model, m-TransH. We demonstrate experimentally that m-TransH outperforms TransH by a large margin, thereby establishing a new state of the art.