Post-Training in Time Series Foundation Models: A Unifying Framework

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks. In this work, we analyze TSFM post-training methods based on their locus of intervention in the prediction pipeline, yielding five categories: parameter adaptation, context augmentation, model composition, output processing and uncertainty control, and compression and specialization. Within each category, we study main representative methods and discuss their current limitations. We further identify future directions toward controlled adaptation, reliable context construction, uncertainty-aware model composition, calibrated output processing, and deployment-aware specialization. Overall, by providing a unifying framework for the emerging TSFM post-training landscape, this work aims to support future research to navigate the design space between a pretrained TSFM and its reliable downstream deployment.

Variational Quantum Conditional Boltzmann Machines for Time-Series Forecasting: Architectures, Symmetric Hyperparameter Evaluation, and a Nonlinear Benchmark

In this study, we developed and evaluated four conditional energy-based forecasting architectures: a classical Gaussian-Bernoulli CRBM, a hybrid quantum-classical QCRBM, a full-register QQRBM, and a lag-feature QFeatureQRBM with complete derivations of their conditional distributions, Contrastive-Divergence gradients, and hybrid training, bridging the energy-based formulation and the implementation-level quantum computation. Unlike prior comparisons, our evaluation enforces symmetric hyperparameter optimisation: classical and quantum-specific hyperparameters receive an equally thorough grid search across thirteen structured experiments. We test on two data classes, a Gaussian-process dataset (GP) generated with real financial data and the input-driven NARMA-10 nonlinear benchmark. Across both regimes we find no systematic evidence of a quantum advantage at the available sample size: no quantum architecture improves on the best classical baseline. The fully quantum QQRBM and QFeatureQRBM are significantly worse, whereas the hybrid QCRBM is statistically indistinguishable from the strongest classical CRBM on both datasets. A power analysis bounds this null result: at n = 12 only medium-to-large effects are detectable, so small advantages cannot be excluded. An iso-parameter (matched-budget) comparison reaches the same conclusion: the classical CRBM is lowest at three of the four budgets and no CRBM-vs-QCRBM difference is significant at any budget.

Scaling Time Series Classification via XAI-Driven Data Reduction

Explainable AI (XAI) for time series has seen significant algorithmic growth, but its utility in providing measurable performance gains for downstream tasks remains under-explored. This paper bridges this gap by introducing drXAI, a novel methodology that repurposes XAI attribution methods for effective data reduction in Time Series Classification (TSC). The core challenge in modern TSC is scalability; state-of-the-art models, such as Transformers, exhibit quadratic complexity relative to sequence length and linear complexity relative to the number of channels. This renders them computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. drXAI addresses this by using a fast, GPU-accelerated classifier (Hydra) to generate local attributions. We aggregate these into global feature importance scores and employ an automated elbow-cut heuristic to select the most salient features without requiring manual thresholds. We evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world univariate and multivariate datasets. On synthetic benchmarks, drXAI successfully recovers ground-truth features where traditional baselines fail. On real-world data, drXAI achieves between 80% and 90% data reduction while maintaining classification accuracy comparable to models trained on the full dataset. Most importantly, we show that drXAI allows resource-intensive models like ConvTran to scale to datasets that were previously inaccessible due to memory constraints. Our results show the benefits of using XAI not just for interpretability, but as a robust tool for feature selection and scalability in time series analysis. All our code and data are openly available.

Multi-modal transformer for signal classification in nanopore blockade experiments

Nanopore devices have emerged as powerful tools for single-molecule sensing, with potential for rapid, portable diagnostics. They detect changes in ionic current as analytes enter nanometer-scale pores, providing a means of identifying diverse biomarkers from their characteristic signal patterns. However, these signals are highly complex, and reliably assigning them to specific molecules remains a major challenge. Here, we address this by introducing a multi-modal deep learning architecture that jointly processes multiple signal representations, including raw time-series data, wavelet-based images, and static feature vectors. Our approach surpasses existing methods by more than 10 percentage points on a 42-peptide benchmark and transfers to a 20-amino-acid dataset with near-perfect accuracy. The model integrates complementary information from these representations, with attention analysis showing that the time-series and wavelet-image inputs emphasize different features of the same event. Together, these results demonstrate the potential of machine learning to enable robust, high-accuracy molecular identification with nanopore sensors.

In-Context Time Series Classification with Random Convolutional Features

Time series classification is central to domains like medical signal analysis, industrial monitoring, and sensor-based activity recognition, where class information manifests as localized shapes, specific frequencies, temporal shifts, or complex cross-channel interactions. Random convolutional transforms efficiently map these sequences to fixed-dimensional tabular features but are traditionally paired with simple linear classifiers. We investigate whether a pretrained tabular foundation model can more effectively harness these rich representations. We propose MASHT, a pipeline that marries MultiRocket and Hydra features with the power of in-context tabular foundation models. By leveraging a pretrained tabular foundation model, our approach completely bypasses task-specific model training, requiring only feature extraction and direct inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MASHT matches state-of-the-art time series classification baselines on univariate tasks, achieving a lower average rank than HIVE-COTE 2.0. On multivariate datasets, MASHT remains highly competitive with the strongest reference methods.

SurvCF(t): Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Analysis in Predictive Maintenance Multivariate Time Series Data

Predictive maintenance relies on accurate Remaining Useful Life estimation, often formulated using survival analysis over multivariate time-series data. While modern deep survival models achieve strong predictive performance, their black-box nature limits their use in safety-critical settings where actionable insight is required. In this work, we introduce \textit{SurvCF(t)}, the first framework for generating counterfactual explanations for survival models operating on time-series data. \textit{SurvCF(t)} identifies minimal, plausible, and temporally consistent changes to an asset's operational history that increase its predicted life time, framing explanation as a constrained optimization problem combining validity, proximity, sparsity, and plausibility. We evaluate the method on multiple benchmarks, including C-MAPSS, N-CMAPSS, and a real-world case study of the Scania Component\_X dataset, demonstrating its ability to produce actionable and interpretable interventions. Our results show that \textit{SurvCF(t)} bridges the gap between survival prediction and prescriptive maintenance, enabling explainable and decision-oriented AI for maintenance strategies.

Panache: One-Pass Motif Discovery at Every Window Length

Motif discovery, the search for recurring patterns within a time series, is a core primitive of exploratory data analysis. A pattern, however, is defined by its duration, which analysts rarely know in advance. To resolve this unknown duration, an interval of window lengths is defined, and the accepted method is to try every length in that interval. Existing pan matrix profile (PMP) methods compute one z-normalized matrix profile per length, so $L$ lengths cost $L$ quadratic self-joins over the same series. We introduce Panache, to our knowledge the first one-pass streaming algorithm for z-normalized PMP motif discovery. It replaces the repeated self-joins with a single scan whose runtime is near-linear in the series length. The key observation is that mean-centering a subsequence changes only its DC Fourier coefficient, so the non-DC spectrum of every z-normalized subsequence can be maintained online by sliding-DFT recurrences and running statistics. This spectral state is the key under which similar subsequences collide in an occupancy-controlled hash directory and, through Parseval's theorem, yields a lower bound that rejects most colliding pairs before any exact computation. Panache computes every data-dependent parameter itself, leaving only a resource budget to tune. At the default budget, it recovers all top-20 pan-motifs against exact fixed-exclusion ground truth on 17 UCR configurations, and is faster than every CPU and GPU baseline benchmarked in this paper. On Wafer at five million samples over 51 lengths, Panache completes one pass in 2.9 minutes and emits the exact motifs in 6.0 minutes, against 7.95 hours for the fastest exact CPU baseline and 38.3 minutes for SCAMP on an H100 GPU.

Visual Semantic Decoding of Electrocorticography from Video Stimuli using End-to-End Deep Learning

ECoG-based visual semantic decoding enables inference of semantic interpretation of visual perception from complex, noisy brain activity. This study examines the feasibility of visual semantic decoding using an end-to-end deep learning framework using electrocorticography (ECoG). Specifically, the decoding task is to predict visual categories from video stimuli using time-series neural inputs. A previously collected ECoG dataset from participants ($n=17$) with drug-resistant epilepsy is used for analysis. With fewer than 50 training samples per visual category, this study evaluates multiple deep learning approaches, artificial neural network architectures, and frequency-band filtered inputs. The best-performing approach is analyzed to shed light on the discriminative information it relies on across spectral, temporal, and cortical dimensions. The selected decoding system uses mixup augmentation, a Transformer-based encoder, and high-gamma (80-150 Hz) inputs with a 900 ms post-stimulus window. Further analysis shows that early visual cortex (V2-V4), ventral stream visual cortex, MT+ complex with neighbouring visual areas, and lateral temporal cortex contributed substantially to decoding performance. This study demonstrates that an end-to-end deep learning framework can yield promising decoding performance from dynamic visual stimuli without handcrafted features, while the model behavior remains interpretable through spectral, temporal, and cortical dimensions, which are broadly consistent with established neuroscience knowledge.

Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement of Foundation Models: A Case Study in Drought Forecasting

Regional climate prediction presents unique challenges for time series foundation models, which typically process temporal patterns through single-pass inference. Expert climatologists, in contrast, employ multi-scale temporal analysis and iterative refinement based on systematic error diagnosis. We present RGMR (Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement), an inference-time framework that adapts pre-trained foundation models to perform structured coarse-to-fine refinement for climate forecasting without updating backbone parameters. Applied to drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), RGMR is architecture-agnostic across the three TSFM backbones evaluated per site (TimesFM, TimeGPT, TabPFN) and consistently lowers test-set MSE on three South Australian sites and three additional regions outside South Australia. Applied to TimesFM, the wrapper reduces one-month-ahead SPEI MSE by up to 18.9\% across the three South Australian sites (mean reduction $\approx$18.7\%). Overall, RGMR provides a practical route for deploying frozen TSFMs in regional climate forecasting workflows.

Post Hoc Inference for Component Attribution in Multivariate Change-Point Detection

We consider the post-detection analysis of change-points for multivariate time series, with the goal of identifying which coordinates are responsible for a detected change. After a change-point has been located by an offline detection algorithm, we propose post hoc statistical procedures to determine whether the change occurs in either of two predefined blocks of coordinates or in both. Our methods rely on two-sample testing procedures with a particular focus on nonparametric tests; we provide theoretical guarantees for Type I error control. Simulations and a real-data experiment demonstrate the strong performance of the proposed procedures.