EventConnector: Mining Social Event Relations through Temporal Graphs

Understanding and retrieving related real-world events based on their temporal dynamics is a fundamental challenge in time-sensitive applications such as forecasting, information retrieval, and social analysis. Existing methods often rely on semantic similarity or global time-series alignment, which overlook the transient and directional dependencies that frequently underlie real-world correlations. In this work, we introduce \textit{EventConnector}, a framework that constructs a temporal event graph capturing localized co-fluctuations and lead-lag relationships between events through their time-series trajectories. We further propose \textbf{EC-Fusion}, an adaptive retrieval mechanism that fuses EventConnector's graph-based scores with a complementary Granger-causal signal via a graph-quality-aware mixing weight. Across two real-world prediction market benchmarks (Polymarket and Kalshi) and nine forecasting architectures evaluated over three random seeds, EC-Fusion is the best non-oracle retrieval method on $17/18$ model--dataset cells, reducing RMSE by $6.87\%$ on average (up to $10.86\%$) over the strongest comparable retrieval baseline, with statistical significance at $p < 0.01$ after Holm--Bonferroni correction. These results highlight the effectiveness of temporally grounded graph modeling, augmented with causal-signal fusion, in capturing latent event relationships beyond what semantic similarity or traditional alignment techniques can offer.

Time Series Analysis in Machine Learning

Time series analysis is a fundamental component of machine learning, especially in astrophysics and cosmology where temporal data abound. This chapter provides a pedagogical review of time series analysis techniques from a machine learning perspective. We cover the basic concepts of time series (stationarity, autocorrelation, seasonality), classical statistical models (autoregressive, moving average, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state-space models), and modern machine learning approaches. In particular, we discuss how traditional statistical methods lay the groundwork, and then explore machine learning methods for time series, including feature-based regression, tree-based ensemble methods, hidden Markov models, Gaussian processes, and deep learning models (recurrent neural networks, convolutional networks, transformers). Throughout, we illustrate with examples drawn from multiple domains (e.g. astronomy, weather forecasting, finance) to emphasize common principles. The goal is to equip readers with both the theoretical understanding and practical context to apply machine learning techniques for time series analysis in their research.

Beyond Uniform Tokens: Adaptive Compression for Time Series Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled time series (TS) analysis by jointly modeling numerical observations and textual context through a shared token interface. However, TS tokens and prompt tokens exhibit fundamentally different information structures, making uniform token processing inefficient. In this paper, we study token efficiency in TS language modeling from an asymmetric-token perspective. We show that TS tokens have highly uneven spectral contributions, where many tokens share redundant frequency patterns while a small subset preserves critical temporal evidence. We also observe that prompt-token influence attenuates with model depth, suggesting that full prompt retention across all layers is unnecessary. Based on these findings, we develop an adaptive token budgeting framework that compresses TS tokens via frequency-domain structure and progressively reduces prompt tokens across layers. Experiments across forecasting, classification, imputation, and anomaly detection demonstrate up to \textit{\textbf{7.68$\times$}} inference acceleration and performance gains in \textit{\textbf{78\%}} of evaluated settings, showing the effectiveness of asymmetric token compression for scalable TS foundation models.

Representing Time Series as Structured Programs for LLM Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning and instruction-following capabilities, making them potentially powerful tools for time-series analysis. However, time series lie outside their native textual modality, raising a fundamental question: how should time series be represented so that LLMs can reason about them effectively? Existing work typically serializes raw numerical sequences or fine-tunes pre-trained LLMs on time-series data. These approaches place the burden of extracting temporal structure directly on the LLM, creating a modality mismatch that often degrades performance on long sequences and introduces substantial computational overhead. In this work, we introduce Time-Series-to-Structured-Program representation (T2SP), a deterministic, training-free method that represents a time series as a structured symbolic program. T2SP decomposes time series into trends, periods, and salient events, expressing them in a program-friendly format aligned with the textual and code-like modalities on which LLMs are natively trained. By shifting temporal-structure extraction from the model to the representation itself, T2SP enables off-the-shelf LLMs to leverage their existing reasoning capabilities for time-series understanding. We evaluate T2SP on three reasoning tasks -- editing, captioning, and question answering -- where it consistently improves performance, reduces reasoning time, and lowers failure rates compared with raw-string representations. Our results demonstrate that T2SP provides an effective interface between time series and LLMs.

Using Explainability as a Training-Time Reliability Signal for Efficient ECG Classification

Training deep neural networks for clinical time-series analysis is computationally demanding, yet many healthcare settings lack the resources required for repeated model development and deployment. This challenge is particularly evident in electrocardiogram classification, where large datasets and long training schedules make efficiency practically important. Progressive Data Dropout reduces training cost by excluding samples from gradient updates once they are learned, but it relies on model confidence and may retain samples that are difficult due to noise or ambiguity rather than useful signal. In this work, we introduce ERTS, an explainability-based reliability training signal for efficient ECG classification. ERTS uses explanation quality during training to distinguish between informative and unreliable uncertainty. Building on progressive data selection, we compute Grad-CAM attention maps for candidate samples and derive a focus score that measures whether model predictions are supported by coherent and localised patterns. Samples with low focus are filtered out, while those with meaningful attention are prioritised for gradient updates. We evaluate ERTS across three ECG datasets and multiple backbone architectures, showing consistent improvements in macro-F1 alongside reduced effective training cost. These results suggest that explanation quality can serve as a practical signal for improving both efficiency and reliability in clinical time-series learning. Code will be released.

Binary Black Hole Parameter Estimation with Hybrid CNN-Transformer Neural Networks

The detection of gravitational waves has revolutionized our ability to explore fundamental aspects of the Universe. Traditionally, modeled gravitational-wave signals have been identified using template-based matched filtering, followed by coincidence analysis across multiple detectors in the signal-to-noise ratio time series. Recent advances in Machine Learning and Deep Learning have sparked growing interest in their application to both signal detection and parameter estimation. In this study, a hybrid Deep Learning strategy is proposed that leverages the effectiveness of Transformer encoders alongside well-established Convolutional Neural Network architectures in an attempt to estimate the intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of non-precessing binary black hole systems. The primary focus of this work is point estimation, producing single best-fit values for each parameter rather than full posterior distributions. This method is evaluated on both simulated signals embedded in Gaussian noise and real gravitational-wave events, and it demonstrates strong predictive performance and robustness across key astrophysical parameters.

Interpretable and Frugal Learning Systems Employing Multiresolution Pyramids and Volterra Kernels

Deep learning models are widely used to process multidimensional signals such as time series, images, and volumetric medical images, but their learned representations often lack explicit signal structure and are difficult to inspect. This thesis develops model-based, signal-theoretic learning systems guided by data and task objectives. It combines multiresolution analysis, wavelets and filter banks, multirate representations, nonlinear Volterra systems, and neural computation graphs. Scale, directional geometry, memory, and nonlinear input-output interactions are represented as differentiable operator modules trainable by backpropagation. The design keeps intermediate variables tied to kernels, subbands, recursions, and transform-domain coefficients rather than only to opaque feature channels. The thesis formulates fast GPU-compatible D-dimensional convolution layers, multirate sampling layers, Volterra-kernel layers in natural and wavelet coefficient domains, rational polynomial cascade heads, stability-constrained multidimensional IIR filters, wavelet banks, and digital shearlet layers with learnable gains. These modules are composed into task-specific architectures for inverse modeling, classification, and segmentation across atmospheric, audio, texture, and medical-imaging problems. In microwave radiometric inversion, InVeRt retrieves vertical temperature and humidity profiles from microwave brightness temperature observations using learnable Volterra kernels in wavelet bases. Multiresolution filter-bank encoders with Volterra heads are used for efficient classification. WaveletViT and ShearViT serve as subband transformer blocks for WaveNETR and ShearNETR, direction-sensitive segmenters for image and MRI segmentation. MRILong deploys trained 3D T1-weighted brain MRI segmenter checkpoints for automatic segmentation and longitudinal analysis of ischemic stroke MRI volumes.

Machine-learned particle flow as a foundation model for collider physics

The workflow from particle collision to physics analysis passes through a series of reconstruction steps that are traditionally modular and disconnected, with no shared representation linking low-level detector data to high-level analysis tasks. We show that casting event reconstruction as a machine learning problem naturally produces such a shared representation. We repurpose a machine learning model trained for particle-flow reconstruction (MLPF) to perform three distinct analysis tasks: jet flavor identification, jet energy regression, and missing momentum regression. By appending the per-particle latent representations learned during reconstruction as additional input features, we substantially improve over baselines that use kinematic features alone. We further demonstrate that a single linear layer trained using only the latent representations achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art baseline architectures, and outperforms the baseline for missing momentum regression with approximately 35 times fewer parameters. These results demonstrate that the latent representations learned during reconstruction encode essential physics information needed for downstream analysis, establishing MLPF as a foundation model and offering a concrete step toward an end-to-end pipeline from detector data to physics analysis.

ForestBack: Breadcrumb-Based Pedestrian Dead Reckoning for Infrastructure-Free Return Navigation

Reliable return navigation remains an important challenge in GPS-denied environments where external positioning infrastructure may be unavailable or unreliable. This paper presents ForestBack, an infrastructure-free pedestrian return navigation framework based on breadcrumb-based pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR). The system records a user's walking route as a sequence of reversible breadcrumb nodes and generates reverse-path guidance without requiring GPS, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth beacons, or pre-installed infrastructure. ForestBack integrates acceleration-based step detection, adaptive step-length estimation, magnetometer-assisted heading estimation, barometric-altitude correction, and bidirectional breadcrumb path reconstruction. The system was evaluated using an indoor obstacle-avoidance route with five checkpoints, where the user navigated around a central obstacle. A dataset of 36 walking trials and 42,474 time-series samples was used for evaluation, including IMU signals, magnetometer readings, barometric variables, turn-event labels, ground-truth trajectories, baseline PDR outputs, proposed ForestBack outputs, and power-related measurements. Experimental results show that ForestBack reduced the mean RMSE from 1.129 m to 0.965 m compared with traditional PDR, corresponding to a 15.76% improvement. The mean final-position error was reduced from 1.781 m to 1.388 m, while turn-event detection consistency reached approximately 99.90%. These results indicate that ForestBack improves trajectory reconstruction and route-preserving return guidance in obstacle-avoidance scenarios. The released dataset and analysis notebook support reproducibility and future benchmarking of infrastructure-free PDR-based return navigation systems.

Graphical Causal Reasoning for Root Cause Analysis in Cloud Networks

Cloud-computing relies on large-scale networks which are inherently complex systems. In this paper, we present a novel approach to root cause analysis (RCA) of cloud network incidents, leveraging graph-based causal discovery techniques. Our method addresses the limitations of rule-based automation by introducing a spatiotemporal grouping strategy and an automation ontology to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. We construct a causal graph from binary time series data using bivariate Granger causality and conditional independence tests. For inference, we introduce a probabilistic method that assigns edge-specific conditional probabilities as a function of time lag, allowing for interpretable, time-aware root cause scoring via causal graph traversal. We evaluated the system using a labeled dataset of 35 production incidents from a major cloud provider. The model successfully recalled the correct root cause in 85.7% of incidents and produced an exact match in 74.3%. In production, the deployed system has been used in over 800 real-world incidents, with positive qualitative feedback from network engineers. These results highlight the practicality of a data-driven, causal approach to RCA in dynamic and large-scale operational environments.