EXCODER: EXplainable Classification Of DiscretE time series Representations

Deep learning has significantly improved time series classification, yet the lack of explainability in these models remains a major challenge. While Explainable AI (XAI) techniques aim to make model decisions more transparent, their effectiveness is often hindered by the high dimensionality and noise present in raw time series data. In this work, we investigate whether transforming time series into discrete latent representations-using methods such as Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoders (VQ-VAE) and Discrete Variational Autoencoders (DVAE)-not only preserves but enhances explainability by reducing redundancy and focusing on the most informative patterns. We show that applying XAI methods to these compressed representations leads to concise and structured explanations that maintain faithfulness without sacrificing classification performance. Additionally, we propose Similar Subsequence Accuracy (SSA), a novel metric that quantitatively assesses the alignment between XAI-identified salient subsequences and the label distribution in the training data. SSA provides a systematic way to validate whether the features highlighted by XAI methods are truly representative of the learned classification patterns. Our findings demonstrate that discrete latent representations not only retain the essential characteristics needed for classification but also offer a pathway to more compact, interpretable, and computationally efficient explanations in time series analysis.

Rethinking the Role of LLMs in Time Series Forecasting

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting comparable performance without LLMs. We show that such conclusions stem from limited evaluation settings and do not hold at scale. We conduct a large-scale study of LLM-based TSF (LLM4TSF) across 8 billion observations, 17 forecasting scenarios, 4 horizons, multiple alignment strategies, and both in-domain and out-of-domain settings. Our results demonstrate that \emph{LLM4TS indeed improves forecasting performance}, with especially large gains in cross-domain generalization. Pre-alignment outperforming post-alignment in over 90\% of tasks. Both pretrained knowledge and model architecture of LLMs contribute and play complementary roles: pretraining is critical under distribution shifts, while architecture excels at modeling complex temporal dynamics. Moreover, under large-scale mixed distributions, a fully intact LLM becomes indispensable, as confirmed by token-level routing analysis and prompt-based improvements. Overall, Our findings overturn prior negative assessments, establish clear conditions under which LLMs are not only useful, and provide practical guidance for effective model design. We release our code at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/LLM4TSF.

Pupillometry and Brain Dynamics for Cognitive Load in Working Memory

Cognitive load, the mental effort required during working memory, is central to neuroscience, psychology, and human-computer interaction. Accurate assessment is vital for adaptive learning, clinical monitoring, and brain-computer interfaces. Physiological signals such as pupillometry and electroencephalography are established biomarkers of cognitive load, but their comparative utility and practical integration as lightweight, wearable monitoring solutions remain underexplored. EEG provides high temporal resolution of neural activity. Although non-invasive, it is technologically demanding and limited in wearability and cost due to its resource-intensive nature, whereas pupillometry is non-invasive, portable, and scalable. Existing studies often rely on deep learning models with limited interpretability and substantial computational expense. This study integrates feature-based and model-driven approaches to advance time-series analysis. Using the OpenNeuro 'Digit Span Task' dataset, this study investigates cognitive load classification from EEG and pupillometry. Feature-based approaches using Catch-22 features and classical machine learning models outperform deep learning in both binary and multiclass tasks. The findings demonstrate that pupillometry alone can compete with EEG, serving as a portable and practical proxy for real-world applications. These results challenge the assumption that EEG is necessary for load detection, showing that pupil dynamics combined with interpretable models and SHAP based feature analysis provide physiologically meaningful insights. This work supports the development of wearable, affordable cognitive monitoring systems for neuropsychiatry, education, and healthcare.

Power Interpretable Causal ODE Networks: A Unified Model for Explainable Anomaly Detection and Root Cause Analysis in Power Systems

Anomaly detection and root cause analysis (RCA) are critical for ensuring the safety and resilience of cyber-physical systems such as power grids. However, existing machine learning models for time series anomaly detection often operate as black boxes, offering only binary outputs without any explanation, such as identifying anomaly type and origin. To address this challenge, we propose Power Interpretable Causality Ordinary Differential Equation (PICODE) Networks, a unified, causality-informed architecture that jointly performs anomaly detection along with the explanation why it is detected as an anomaly, including root cause localization, anomaly type classification, and anomaly shape characterization. Experimental results in power systems demonstrate that PICODE achieves competitive detection performance while offering improved interpretability and reduced reliance on labeled data or external causal graphs. We provide theoretical results demonstrating the alignment between the shape of anomaly functions and the changes in the weights of the extracted causal graphs.

AnomaMind: Agentic Time Series Anomaly Detection with Tool-Augmented Reasoning

Time series anomaly detection is critical in many real-world applications, where effective solutions must localize anomalous regions and support reliable decision-making under complex settings. However, most existing methods frame anomaly detection as a purely discriminative prediction task with fixed feature inputs, rather than an evidence-driven diagnostic process. As a result, they often struggle when anomalies exhibit strong context dependence or diverse patterns. We argue that these limitations stem from the lack of adaptive feature preparation, reasoning-aware detection, and iterative refinement during inference. To address these challenges, we propose AnomaMind, an agentic time series anomaly detection framework that reformulates anomaly detection as a sequential decision-making process. AnomaMind operates through a structured workflow that progressively localizes anomalous intervals in a coarse-to-fine manner, augments detection through multi-turn tool interactions for adaptive feature preparation, and refines anomaly decisions via self-reflection. The workflow is supported by a set of reusable tool engines, enabling context-aware diagnostic analysis. A key design of AnomaMind is an explicitly designed hybrid inference mechanism for tool-augmented anomaly detection. In this mechanism, general-purpose models are responsible for autonomous tool interaction and self-reflective refinement, while core anomaly detection decisions are learned through reinforcement learning under verifiable workflow-level feedback, enabling task-specific optimization within a flexible reasoning framework. Extensive experiments across diverse settings demonstrate that AnomaMind consistently improves anomaly detection performance. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/AnomaMind.

Locally Private Parametric Methods for Change-Point Detection

We study parametric change-point detection, where the goal is to identify distributional changes in time series, under local differential privacy. In the non-private setting, we derive improved finite-sample accuracy guarantees for a change-point detection algorithm based on the generalized log-likelihood ratio test, via martingale methods. In the private setting, we propose two locally differentially private algorithms based on randomized response and binary mechanisms, and analyze their theoretical performance. We derive bounds on detection accuracy and validate our results through empirical evaluation. Our results characterize the statistical cost of local differential privacy in change-point detection and show how privacy degrades performance relative to a non-private benchmark. As part of this analysis, we establish a structural result for strong data processing inequalities (SDPI), proving that SDPI coefficients for Rényi divergences and their symmetric variants (Jeffreys-Rényi divergences) are achieved by binary input distributions. These results on SDPI coefficients are also of independent interest, with applications to statistical estimation, data compression, and Markov chain mixing.

NeuroMambaLLM: Dynamic Graph Learning of fMRI Functional Connectivity in Autistic Brains Using Mamba and Language Model Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong semantic reasoning across multimodal domains. However, their integration with graph-based models of brain connectivity remains limited. In addition, most existing fMRI analysis methods rely on static Functional Connectivity (FC) representations, which obscure transient neural dynamics critical for neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism. Recent state-space approaches, including Mamba, model temporal structure efficiently, but are typically used as standalone feature extractors without explicit high-level reasoning. We propose NeuroMambaLLM, an end-to-end framework that integrates dynamic latent graph learning and selective state-space temporal modelling with LLMs. The proposed method learns the functional connectivity dynamically from raw Blood-Oxygen-Level-Dependent (BOLD) time series, replacing fixed correlation graphs with adaptive latent connectivity while suppressing motion-related artifacts and capturing long-range temporal dependencies. The resulting dynamic brain representations are projected into the embedding space of an LLM model, where the base language model remains frozen and lightweight low-rank adaptation (LoRA) modules are trained for parameter-efficient alignment. This design enables the LLM to perform both diagnostic classification and language-based reasoning, allowing it to analyze dynamic fMRI patterns and generate clinically meaningful textual reports.

It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a rigorous human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 representative TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

Adaptive Structured Pruning of Convolutional Neural Networks for Time Series Classification

Deep learning models for Time Series Classification (TSC) have achieved strong predictive performance but their high computational and memory requirements often limit deployment on resource-constrained devices. While structured pruning can address these issues by removing redundant filters, existing methods typically rely on manually tuned hyperparameters such as pruning ratios which limit scalability and generalization across datasets. In this work, we propose Dynamic Structured Pruning (DSP), a fully automatic, structured pruning framework for convolution-based TSC models. DSP introduces an instance-wise sparsity loss during training to induce channel-level sparsity, followed by a global activation analysis to identify and prune redundant filters without needing any predefined pruning ratio. This work tackles computational bottlenecks of deep TSC models for deployment on resource-constrained devices. We validate DSP on 128 UCR datasets using two different deep state-of-the-art architectures: LITETime and InceptionTime. Our approach achieves an average compression of 58% for LITETime and 75% for InceptionTime architectures while maintaining classification accuracy. Redundancy analyses confirm that DSP produces compact and informative representations, offering a practical path for scalable and efficient deep TSC deployment.

Policy4OOD: A Knowledge-Guided World Model for Policy Intervention Simulation against the Opioid Overdose Crisis

The opioid epidemic remains one of the most severe public health crises in the United States, yet evaluating policy interventions before implementation is difficult: multiple policies interact within a dynamic system where targeting one risk pathway may inadvertently amplify another. We argue that effective opioid policy evaluation requires three capabilities -- forecasting future outcomes under current policies, counterfactual reasoning about alternative past decisions, and optimization over candidate interventions -- and propose to unify them through world modeling. We introduce Policy4OOD, a knowledge-guided spatio-temporal world model that addresses three core challenges: what policies prescribe, where effects manifest, and when effects unfold.Policy4OOD jointly encodes policy knowledge graphs, state-level spatial dependencies, and socioeconomic time series into a policy-conditioned Transformer that forecasts future opioid outcomes.Once trained, the world model serves as a simulator: forecasting requires only a forward pass, counterfactual analysis substitutes alternative policy encodings in the historical sequence, and policy optimization employs Monte Carlo Tree Search over the learned simulator. To support this framework, we construct a state-level monthly dataset (2019--2024) integrating opioid mortality, socioeconomic indicators, and structured policy encodings. Experiments demonstrate that spatial dependencies and structured policy knowledge significantly improve forecasting accuracy, validating each architectural component and the potential of world modeling for data-driven public health decision support.