TGFormer: Towards Temporal Graph Transformer with Auto-Correlation Mechanism

The growing interest in Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) stems from their ability to model complex dynamics and deliver superior performance. However, TGNNs encounter fundamental challenges in capturing long-term dependencies and identifying periodic patterns. To address these limitations, we propose TGFormer, a novel Transformer architecture specifically designed for temporal graphs. Our model redefines temporal graph learning by establishing a trajectory framework that aligns with time series analysis principles. This approach allows TGFormer to derive node representations through systematic analysis of historical interactions, enabling granular examination of node relationships across sequential timestamps. Building upon stochastic process theory, we develop an auto-correlation mechanism that systematically uncovers periodic dependencies in node interactions. This innovation empowers TGFormer to perform dependency discovery and representation aggregation at sub-interaction levels, demonstrating superior efficiency and accuracy compared to conventional attention mechanisms. Experimental validation across six public benchmarks confirms the effectiveness of our approach, with TGFormer at most achieving 9.35\% precision improvement compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Cycle-Space Informed Detection of Autoencoded Blind False Data Injection Attacks on Power Systems

The rapid growth of AI-driven data centers and large-scale energy storage systems is increasing the reliance of power system operation on real-time measurement data and automated decision-making. However, many existing detection methods rely on statistical or data-driven analysis of measurements and can fail when attackers exploit the same data structure to craft stealthy perturbations. To illustrate this limitation, we demonstrate a blind False Data Injection Attack (FDIA) in which an Autoencoder learns the measurement manifold and generates perturbations aligned with the Jacobian null space, thereby allowing the attack to evade both residual-based baddata detectors and time-series anomaly detectors. To mitigate data-driven FDIAs which exploit the null space, we propose a topology-informed Cycle-Space Detector (CSD) that leverages the Cycle-Space of the network to impose structural constraints that enhance null space estimation. In addition, we prove that by using the Minimum Cycle Basis (MCB), the proposed CSD achieves the optimal generalization error for attack detection. By exploiting topology-derived cycle constraints rather than relying solely on numerical null space estimation, the proposed method does not require precise line parameters and improves the separation between normal and attacked measurements. Simulation results on IEEE 14-, 30-, 57-, and 118-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method effectively detects data-driven FDIAs under realistic measurement noise.

On the Role of Inductive Bias in Time-Series Pretraining: A Case Study in Learning Generalizable Representations for Clinical Time Series

Clinical time-series learning is routinely constrained by small, heterogeneous cohorts and protocol drift, while its downstream use spans both classification (e.g., pathology diagnosis) and regression (e.g., temporal forecasting). These constraints make foundation-model pretraining appealing, but raises an important question of which inductive biases should the pretraining objective impose so that representations transfer across task types and subjects. We study this question in pathological gait analysis for spinal cord injury (SCI) via PathoFM, an encoder-centric transformer pretrained on multivariate gait windows with three complementary objectives: Local Completion (reconstruct contiguous masked spans to enforce local structure), Temporal Continuity (predict a masked mid-horizon continuation from an observed prefix to enforce smoothness and causal consistency), and Unsupervised In-Context Dynamics (support-query reconstruction conditioned on subject exemplar windows via attention). Empirically comparing objective families (grouping/contrastive, dynamics-based, and generative reconstruction), we find that dynamics-centric mixtures produce the most balanced transfer: grouping objectives favor discriminative margins but can degrade magnitude fidelity needed for continuous targets, whereas reconstruction-only objectives preserve waveform structure but may underperform on classification. Overall, combining local reconstruction with temporal continuity, and adding in-context conditioning when exemplar access is realistic, yields robust subject-generalizing representations.

Uncertainty-DTW for Sequences and Visual Tokens

Aligning structured data is a fundamental problem in computer vision and machine learning, underlying tasks such as time series analysis, human action recognition, and visual representation learning. Existing alignment methods, including Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and its differentiable variants, rely on deterministic similarity measures and are therefore sensitive to heterogeneous and noisy features. In this work, we introduce uncertainty-aware alignment, a probabilistic framework that models pairwise correspondences with heteroscedastic uncertainty and performs structured matching along alignment paths. Our formulation, uncertainty-DTW (uDTW), assigns each correspondence a Normal distribution and parametrizes each alignment path by a Maximum Likelihood Estimate objective consisting of (i) a precision-weighted matching term that suppresses unreliable features, and (ii) a log-variance regularization that prevents degenerate solutions. This yields a probabilistic alignment mechanism that is robust to noise and interpretable, as uncertainty directly reflects the reliability of matches. We further generalize this framework from temporal sequences to tokenized visual representations, enabling structured matching over sets of visual tokens. The learned uncertainty can be interpreted as a reverse-attention: semantically relevant regions exhibit low uncertainty and dominate the alignment, while ambiguous/noisy regions have high uncertainty. This provides a connection between alignment, attention, and uncertainty modeling. We evaluate the proposed framework across diverse domains. The results demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art methods and show that learned uncertainty correlates with semantic importance. These findings establish uncertainty-aware alignment as a general, robust, and interpretable framework for learning from structured data.

Continuity and Ordinality Matter: Constraining Time Series Tokens for Effective Time Series Analysis with Large Language Models

Token-based time series large language models (TS-LLMs) have emerged as a promising direction for time series analysis and reasoning. However, prior studies largely overlook the inherent continuity and ordinality of time series tokens, which substantially limits model performance. In this paper, we argue that preserving these properties in time series token embeddings is crucial for the effectiveness of token-based TS-LLMs. To this end, we propose COM (Continuity and Ordinality Matter), a continuity- and ordinality-aware strategy that integrates geometric constraints into both the initialization and training stages. Empirical results on multiple time series analysis benchmarks demonstrate that COM consistently improves the performance of token-based TS-LLMs, achieving competitive results and strong generalizability. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/COM .

Function-Valued Causal Influence in Nonlinear Time Series

Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true object learned by nonlinear autoregressive models: a state-dependent function whose effect varies across regimes, magnitudes, and contexts. We formalize function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures and show that scalar causal scores constitute a severe information bottleneck, conflating between-state variation with within-state residual noise. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a representative architecture, we introduce a practical framework based on Individual Conditional Expectation for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models. Through controlled synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors, including monotonic, thresholded, saturating, and sign-changing effects. An applied case study on democratic development further shows that function-valued analysis reveals regime-specific and asymmetric causal structure systematically missed by score-centric approaches.

MULTISEISMO: A Multimodal Seismic Dataset and Model for Cross-Modal Seismic Understanding

The application of generalist multimodal models (GMMs) to specialized scientific domains remains limited due to the scarcity of comprehensive domain-specific datasets that integrate multiple data modalities beyond text and images. In seismology, understanding earthquake phenomena requires the synthesis of timeseries waveform data, geographical imagery, and contextual metadata, a multimodal integration absent in existing seismic datasets. We present MultiSeismo, a large scale structured multimodal seismic dataset, comprising over 16K seismic events spanning 13 years (2010 to 2023) across diverse geographical regions. Each event data integrates waveform recordings from global station networks, intensity maps, population exposure visualizations, and a comprehensive textual description within a standardized JSON format. We additionally develop MISCE, a multimodal instruction set on top of raw data to enable supervised training and evaluation of GMMs on seismic reasoning tasks ranging from basic information retrieval to complex cross modal analysis. We leverage MISCE to finetune an existing multimodal model (Unified IO 2) enhanced with a specialized timeseries encoder, which yields SeisModal, the first domain specific multimodal model for comprehensive seismic analysis. Evaluation of state of the art multimodal models on MultiSeismo reveals significant challenges, particularly with time-series data processing for general purpose models, while demonstrating SeisModal's superior performance on seismic multimodal reasoning tasks. These results prove that MultiSeismo provides a rigorous benchmark for future multimodal research in seismology and validate the success of our domain specific architectural adaptations.

Comparative Analysis of Liquid Neural Networks and LSTM for Sequential Pattern Recognition: Robustness, Efficiency, and Clinical Utility

Traditional Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units operate on discrete time steps, often failing to capture the fluid temporal dynamics of real-world physical processes. Liquid Neural Networks (LNNs), specifically Closed-form Continuous-time (CfC) networks, address this by modeling the hidden state evolution as a continuous differential equation. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study across four distinct sequential modalities: neuromorphic event-based data (N-MNIST), stroke-based drawing (QuickDraw), visual handwriting (IAM), and physiological time-series (PhysioNet Sepsis-3). Furthermore, we perform a rigorous stress test using temporal dropout to evaluate model robustness against missing data. Our findings reveal that LNNs consistently provide superior parameter efficiency and significantly higher robustness in natively temporal domains and clinical environments where data sparsity is prevalent. This extended preprint provides additional background on related datasets and the LNN theoretical lineage, supplemented with a detailed appendix documenting our full implementation and experimental settings.

Electricity Consumption Forecasting: An Approach Using Cooperative Ensemble Learning with SHapley Additive exPlanations

Electricity expense management presents significant challenges, as this resource is susceptible to various influencing factors. In universities, the demand for this resource is rapidly growing with institutional expansion and has a significant environmental impact. In this study, the machine learning models long short-term memory (LSTM), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were trained with historical consumption data from the Federal Institute of Paraná (IFPR) over the last seven years and climatic variables to forecast electricity consumption 12 months ahead. Datasets from two campuses were adopted. To improve model performance, feature selection was performed using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and hyperparameter optimization was carried out using genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results indicate that the proposed cooperative ensemble learning approach named Weaker Separator Booster (WSB) exhibited the best performance for datasets. Specifically, it achieved an sMAPE of 13.90% and MAE of 1990.87 kWh for the IFPR-Palmas Campus and an sMAPE of 18.72% and MAE of 465.02 kWh for the Coronel Vivida Campus. The SHAP analysis revealed distinct feature importance patterns across the two IFPR campuses. A commonality that emerged was the strong influence of lagged time-series values and a minimal influence of climatic variables.

Factorize to Generalize: Retrieval-Guided Invariant-Dynamic Decomposition for Time Series Forecasting

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved strong zero-shot forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining and retrieval-augmented prediction. However, our empirical analysis reveals a non-trivial limitation of retrieval-based forecasting: retrieval tends to induce more oscillatory predictions, improving performance on highly fluctuating series while degrading accuracy on smoother, trend-dominated ones. This suggests that retrieved information may be fused into prediction without explicitly distinguishing stable temporal structure from instance-specific variations, which can reduce robustness under distribution shifts. We propose a Retrieval-guided Invariant-Dynamic DEcomposition framework for time series forecasting. Rather than using retrieval as auxiliary predictive context, we leverage retrieved sequences as implicit samples from related environments to guide representation decomposition. Specifically, we first construct a retrieval-aware representation via attention-based aggregation, and then introduce a retrieval-guided routing mechanism to decompose it into an invariant component capturing stable shared structure and a dynamic component modeling context-dependent variations. These two components are forecast separately and fused for final prediction, enabling the model to preserve transferable patterns while remaining adaptive to evolving dynamics. We further design training objectives that encourage invariant learning and disentanglement, and provide theoretical insight showing that retrieval aggregation reduces variance and approximates invariant representation learning without explicit environment supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method consistently improves robustness under distribution shifts and outperforms existing TSFMs and retrieval-based baselines in zero-shot forecasting settings.