The Few Govern the Many:Unveiling Few-Layer Dominance for Time Series Models

Large-scale models are at the forefront of time series (TS) forecasting, dominated by two paradigms: fine-tuning text-based Large Language Models (LLM4TS) and training Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch. Both approaches share a foundational assumption that scaling up model capacity and data volume leads to improved performance. However, we observe a \textit{\textbf{scaling paradox}} in TS models, revealing a puzzling phenomenon that larger models do \emph{NOT} achieve better performance. Through extensive experiments on two model families across four scales (100M to 1.7B parameters) and diverse data (up to 6B observations), we rigorously confirm that the scaling paradox is a pervasive issue. We then diagnose its root cause by analyzing internal representations, identifying a phenomenon we call \textit{few-layer dominance}: only a small subset of layers are functionally important, while the majority are redundant, under-utilized, and can even distract training. Based on this discovery, we propose a practical method to automatically identify and retain only these dominant layers. In our models, retaining only 21\% of the parameters achieves up to a 12\% accuracy improvement and a 2.7$\times$ inference speedup. We validate the universality of our method on 8 prominent SOTA models (LLM4TS and TSFMs, 90M to 6B), showing that retaining less than 30\% of layers achieves comparable or superior accuracy in over 95\% of tasks.

SkipGPT: Dynamic Layer Pruning Reinvented with Token Awareness and Module Decoupling

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance across tasks but incur substantial computational costs due to their deep, multi-layered architectures. Layer pruning has emerged as a strategy to alleviate these inefficiencies, but conventional static pruning methods overlook two critical dynamics inherent to LLM inference: (1) horizontal dynamics, where token-level heterogeneity demands context-aware pruning decisions, and (2) vertical dynamics, where the distinct functional roles of MLP and self-attention layers necessitate component-specific pruning policies. We introduce SkipGPT, a dynamic layer pruning framework designed to optimize computational resource allocation through two core innovations: (1) global token-aware routing to prioritize critical tokens, and (2) decoupled pruning policies for MLP and self-attention components. To mitigate training instability, we propose a two-stage optimization paradigm: first, a disentangled training phase that learns routing strategies via soft parameterization to avoid premature pruning decisions, followed by parameter-efficient LoRA fine-tuning to restore performance impacted by layer removal. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SkipGPT reduces over 40% of model parameters while matching or exceeding the performance of the original dense model across benchmarks. By harmonizing dynamic efficiency with preserved expressivity, SkipGPT advances the practical deployment of scalable, resource-aware LLMs. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/EIT-NLP/SkipGPT.

LLM as Effective Streaming Processor: Bridging Streaming-Batch Mismatches with Group Position Encoding

Large Language Models (LLMs) are primarily designed for batch processing. Existing methods for adapting LLMs to streaming rely either on expensive re-encoding or specialized architectures with limited scalability. This work identifies three key mismatches in adapting batch-oriented LLMs to streaming: (1) input-attention, (2) output-attention, and (3) position-ID mismatches. While it is commonly assumed that the latter two mismatches require frequent re-encoding, our analysis reveals that only the input-attention mismatch significantly impacts performance, indicating re-encoding outputs is largely unnecessary. To better understand this discrepancy with the common assumption, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of position encoding on LLMs in streaming, showing that preserving relative positions within source and target contexts is more critical than maintaining absolute order. Motivated by the above analysis, we introduce a group position encoding paradigm built on batch architectures to enhance consistency between streaming and batch modes. Extensive experiments on cross-lingual and cross-modal tasks demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches. Our method requires no architectural modifications, exhibits strong generalization in both streaming and batch modes. The code is available at repository https://github.com/EIT-NLP/StreamingLLM.

Probabilistic Decomposition Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is crucial for many fields, such as disaster warning, weather prediction, and energy consumption. The Transformer-based models are considered to have revolutionized the field of sequence modeling. However, the complex temporal patterns of the time series hinder the model from mining reliable temporal dependencies. Furthermore, the autoregressive form of the Transformer introduces cumulative errors in the inference step. In this paper, we propose the probabilistic decomposition Transformer model that combines the Transformer with a conditional generative model, which provides hierarchical and interpretable probabilistic forecasts for intricate time series. The Transformer is employed to learn temporal patterns and implement primary probabilistic forecasts, while the conditional generative model is used to achieve non-autoregressive hierarchical probabilistic forecasts by introducing latent space feature representations. In addition, the conditional generative model reconstructs typical features of the series, such as seasonality and trend terms, from probability distributions in the latent space to enable complex pattern separation and provide interpretable forecasts. Extensive experiments on several datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model, indicating that it compares favorably with the state of the art.