FDF: Flexible Decoupled Framework for Time Series Forecasting with Conditional Denoising and Polynomial Modeling

Time series forecasting is vital in numerous web applications, influencing critical decision-making across industries. While diffusion models have recently gained increasing popularity for this task, we argue they suffer from a significant drawback: indiscriminate noise addition to the original time series followed by denoising, which can obscure underlying dynamic evolving trend and complicate forecasting. To address this limitation, we propose a novel flexible decoupled framework (FDF) that learns high-quality time series representations for enhanced forecasting performance. A key characteristic of our approach leverages the inherent inductive bias of time series data by decomposing it into trend and seasonal components, each modeled separately to enable decoupled analysis and modeling. Specifically, we propose an innovative Conditional Denoising Seasonal Module (CDSM) within the diffusion model, which leverages statistical information from the historical window to conditionally model the complex seasonal component. Notably, we incorporate a Polynomial Trend Module (PTM) to effectively capture the smooth trend component, thereby enhancing the model's ability to represent temporal dependencies. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our framework, demonstrating superior performance over existing methods and higlighting its flexibility in time series forecasting. We hope our work can bring a new perspective for time series forecasting. We intend to make our code publicly available as open-source in the future.

Learning Recommender Systems with Soft Target: A Decoupled Perspective

Learning recommender systems with multi-class optimization objective is a prevalent setting in recommendation. However, as observed user feedback often accounts for a tiny fraction of the entire item pool, the standard Softmax loss tends to ignore the difference between potential positive feedback and truly negative feedback. To address this challenge, we propose a novel decoupled soft label optimization framework to consider the objectives as two aspects by leveraging soft labels, including target confidence and the latent interest distribution of non-target items. Futhermore, based on our carefully theoretical analysis, we design a decoupled loss function to flexibly adjust the importance of these two aspects. To maximize the performance of the proposed method, we additionally present a sensible soft-label generation algorithm that models a label propagation algorithm to explore users' latent interests in unobserved feedback via neighbors. We conduct extensive experiments on various recommendation system models and public datasets, the results demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of the proposed method.

Diffusion Auto-regressive Transformer for Effective Self-supervised Time Series Forecasting

Self-supervised learning has become a popular and effective approach for enhancing time series forecasting, enabling models to learn universal representations from unlabeled data. However, effectively capturing both the global sequence dependence and local detail features within time series data remains challenging. To address this, we propose a novel generative self-supervised method called TimeDART, denoting Diffusion Auto-regressive Transformer for Time series forecasting. In TimeDART, we treat time series patches as basic modeling units. Specifically, we employ an self-attention based Transformer encoder to model the dependencies of inter-patches. Additionally, we introduce diffusion and denoising mechanisms to capture the detail locality features of intra-patch. Notably, we design a cross-attention-based denoising decoder that allows for adjustable optimization difficulty in the self-supervised task, facilitating more effective self-supervised pre-training. Furthermore, the entire model is optimized in an auto-regressive manner to obtain transferable representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TimeDART achieves state-of-the-art fine-tuning performance compared to the most advanced competitive methods in forecasting tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART.

HMF: A Hybrid Multi-Factor Framework for Dynamic Intraoperative Hypotension Prediction

Intraoperative hypotension (IOH) prediction using Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) is a critical research area with significant implications for patient outcomes during surgery. However, existing approaches predominantly employ static modeling paradigms that overlook the dynamic nature of physiological signals. In this paper, we introduce a novel Hybrid Multi-Factor (HMF) framework that reformulates IOH prediction as a blood pressure forecasting task. Our framework leverages a Transformer encoder, specifically designed to effectively capture the temporal evolution of MAP series through a patch-based input representation, which segments the input physiological series into informative patches for accurate analysis. To address the challenges of distribution shift in physiological series, our approach incorporates two key innovations: (1) Symmetric normalization and de-normalization processes help mitigate distributional drift in statistical properties, thereby ensuring the model's robustness across varying conditions, and (2) Sequence decomposition, which disaggregates the input series into trend and seasonal components, allowing for a more precise modeling of inherent sequence dependencies. Extensive experiments conducted on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to competitive baselines, particularly in capturing the nuanced variations in input series that are crucial for accurate IOH prediction.

DV-FSR: A Dual-View Target Attack Framework for Federated Sequential Recommendation

Federated recommendation (FedRec) preserves user privacy by enabling decentralized training of personalized models, but this architecture is inherently vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Significant research has been conducted on targeted attacks in FedRec systems, motivated by commercial and social influence considerations. However, much of this work has largely overlooked the differential robustness of recommendation models. Moreover, our empirical findings indicate that existing targeted attack methods achieve only limited effectiveness in Federated Sequential Recommendation (FSR) tasks. Driven by these observations, we focus on investigating targeted attacks in FSR and propose a novel dualview attack framework, named DV-FSR. This attack method uniquely combines a sampling-based explicit strategy with a contrastive learning-based implicit gradient strategy to orchestrate a coordinated attack. Additionally, we introduce a specific defense mechanism tailored for targeted attacks in FSR, aiming to evaluate the mitigation effects of the attack method we proposed. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our proposed approach on representative sequential models.

Advancing Time Series Classification with Multimodal Language Modeling

For the advancements of time series classification, scrutinizing previous studies, most existing methods adopt a common learning-to-classify paradigm - a time series classifier model tries to learn the relation between sequence inputs and target label encoded by one-hot distribution. Although effective, this paradigm conceals two inherent limitations: (1) encoding target categories with one-hot distribution fails to reflect the comparability and similarity between labels, and (2) it is very difficult to learn transferable model across domains, which greatly hinder the development of universal serving paradigm. In this work, we propose InstructTime, a novel attempt to reshape time series classification as a learning-to-generate paradigm. Relying on the powerful generative capacity of the pre-trained language model, the core idea is to formulate the classification of time series as a multimodal understanding task, in which both task-specific instructions and raw time series are treated as multimodal inputs while the label information is represented by texts. To accomplish this goal, three distinct designs are developed in the InstructTime. Firstly, a time series discretization module is designed to convert continuous time series into a sequence of hard tokens to solve the inconsistency issue across modal inputs. To solve the modality representation gap issue, for one thing, we introduce an alignment projected layer before feeding the transformed token of time series into language models. For another, we highlight the necessity of auto-regressive pre-training across domains, which can facilitate the transferability of the language model and boost the generalization performance. Extensive experiments are conducted over benchmark datasets, whose results uncover the superior performance of InstructTime and the potential for a universal foundation model in time series classification.

Learning Transferable Time Series Classifier with Cross-Domain Pre-training from Language Model

Advancements in self-supervised pre-training (SSL) have significantly advanced the field of learning transferable time series representations, which can be very useful in enhancing the downstream task. Despite being effective, most existing works struggle to achieve cross-domain SSL pre-training, missing valuable opportunities to integrate patterns and features from different domains. The main challenge lies in the significant differences in the characteristics of time-series data across different domains, such as variations in the number of channels and temporal resolution scales. To address this challenge, we propose CrossTimeNet, a novel cross-domain SSL learning framework to learn transferable knowledge from various domains to largely benefit the target downstream task. One of the key characteristics of CrossTimeNet is the newly designed time series tokenization module, which could effectively convert the raw time series into a sequence of discrete tokens based on a reconstruction optimization process. Besides, we highlight that predicting a high proportion of corrupted tokens can be very helpful for extracting informative patterns across different domains during SSL pre-training, which has been largely overlooked in past years. Furthermore, unlike previous works, our work treats the pre-training language model (PLM) as the initialization of the encoder network, investigating the feasibility of transferring the knowledge learned by the PLM to the time series area. Through these efforts, the path to cross-domain pre-training of a generic time series model can be effectively paved. We conduct extensive experiments in a real-world scenario across various time series classification domains. The experimental results clearly confirm CrossTimeNet's superior performance.

Towards Personalized Evaluation of Large Language Models with An Anonymous Crowd-Sourcing Platform

Large language model evaluation plays a pivotal role in the enhancement of its capacity. Previously, numerous methods for evaluating large language models have been proposed in this area. Despite their effectiveness, these existing works mainly focus on assessing objective questions, overlooking the capability to evaluate subjective questions which is extremely common for large language models. Additionally, these methods predominantly utilize centralized datasets for evaluation, with question banks concentrated within the evaluation platforms themselves. Moreover, the evaluation processes employed by these platforms often overlook personalized factors, neglecting to consider the individual characteristics of both the evaluators and the models being evaluated. To address these limitations, we propose a novel anonymous crowd-sourcing evaluation platform, BingJian, for large language models that employs a competitive scoring mechanism where users participate in ranking models based on their performance. This platform stands out not only for its support of centralized evaluations to assess the general capabilities of models but also for offering an open evaluation gateway. Through this gateway, users have the opportunity to submit their questions, testing the models on a personalized and potentially broader range of capabilities. Furthermore, our platform introduces personalized evaluation scenarios, leveraging various forms of human-computer interaction to assess large language models in a manner that accounts for individual user preferences and contexts. The demonstration of BingJian can be accessed at https://github.com/Mingyue-Cheng/Bingjian.

Empowering Sequential Recommendation from Collaborative Signals and Semantic Relatedness

Sequential recommender systems (SRS) could capture dynamic user preferences by modeling historical behaviors ordered in time. Despite effectiveness, focusing only on the \textit{collaborative signals} from behaviors does not fully grasp user interests. It is also significant to model the \textit{semantic relatedness} reflected in content features, e.g., images and text. Towards that end, in this paper, we aim to enhance the SRS tasks by effectively unifying collaborative signals and semantic relatedness together. Notably, we empirically point out that it is nontrivial to achieve such a goal due to semantic gap issues. Thus, we propose an end-to-end two-stream architecture for sequential recommendation, named TSSR, to learn user preferences from ID-based and content-based sequence. Specifically, we first present novel hierarchical contrasting module, including coarse user-grained and fine item-grained terms, to align the representations of inter-modality. Furthermore, we also design a two-stream architecture to learn the dependence of intra-modality sequence and the complex interactions of inter-modality sequence, which can yield more expressive capacity in understanding user interests. We conduct extensive experiments on five public datasets. The experimental results show that the TSSR could yield superior performance than competitive baselines. We also make our experimental codes publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TSSR-2A27/.

ConvTimeNet: A Deep Hierarchical Fully Convolutional Model for Multivariate Time Series Analysis

This paper introduces ConvTimeNet, a novel deep hierarchical fully convolutional network designed to serve as a general-purpose model for time series analysis. The key design of this network is twofold, designed to overcome the limitations of traditional convolutional networks. Firstly, we propose an adaptive segmentation of time series into sub-series level patches, treating these as fundamental modeling units. This setting avoids the sparsity semantics associated with raw point-level time steps. Secondly, we design a fully convolutional block by skillfully integrating deepwise and pointwise convolution operations, following the advanced building block style employed in Transformer encoders. This backbone network allows for the effective capture of both global sequence and cross-variable dependence, as it not only incorporates the advancements of Transformer architecture but also inherits the inherent properties of convolution. Furthermore, multi-scale representations of given time series instances can be learned by controlling the kernel size flexibly. Extensive experiments are conducted on both time series forecasting and classification tasks. The results consistently outperformed strong baselines in most situations in terms of effectiveness.The code is publicly available.