From Sequence to Structure: Relational Uncertainty Propagation for LLM Agents

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language model (LLM) agents in complex interactive environments. Existing UQ methods largely rely on local signals, such as token probabilities, predictive entropy, or per-step confidence, and therefore overlook the long-range dependencies through which errors accumulate across an execution trajectory. As a result, they may fail to identify agent failures whose causes originate several reasoning or interaction steps before the final answer. We propose RUPA (Relational Uncertainty Propagation for Agents), a trajectory-level UQ framework for LLM agents. RUPA represents an execution history as a directed trajectory graph in which reasoning states, tool interactions, and environment feedback are nodes connected by temporal and semantic dependency edges. It then propagates uncertainty over this graph to capture how execution risk accumulates and transfers across interaction steps. The propagated signal is combined with trajectory-level behavioral features and goal-alignment information to produce a confidence estimate for the full agent trajectory. We evaluate RUPA on representative agent benchmarks, including $τ$-2, Terminal-Bench-2, and GAIA, using 6 open-source LLMs spanning multiple model families. Experimental results show that RUPA consistently outperforms existing UQ methods by providing more accurate uncertainty estimates, enabling earlier failure detection, and improving uncertainty-guided agent execution across diverse agent tasks. These results demonstrate that explicitly modeling relational dependency is crucial to reliable UQ for long-horizon LLM agents, providing a practical foundation for trustworthy agent execution.

Knowing When to Quit: Diagnosing and Training LLMs to Abort Futile Reasoning

Large language models generate computationally expensive yet semantically void reasoning on beyond-capability tasks, creating risks where plausible-sounding but incorrect derivations mislead users. We characterize this \textit{futile reasoning} phenomenon through systematic analysis, revealing universal capability overreach and systematic miscalibration between capability and behavior. The dominant failure mode is specious reasoning, which outputs look superficially valid but contain subtle errors, escalating with task difficulty. To address this, we introduce \textbf{CaRL} (\textbf{Ca}pability-\textbf{a}ligned \textbf{R}einforcement \textbf{L}earning), which aligns model behavior with capability boundaries through reward shaping that incentivizes refusal over futile reasoning and hindsight refusal augmentation that converts failures into refusal supervision. Experiments demonstrate a substantial reduction in futile reasoning while preserving performance across task difficulties, effectively achieving capability-aligned behavior without sacrificing utility. \footnote{https://github.com/icip-cas/Knowing-When-to-Quit}

DocOps: A Verifiable Benchmark for Autonomous Agents in Complex Document Operations

As autonomous agents rapidly evolve, their ability to reliably manipulate ubiquitous digital documents has become critical for enabling general-purpose AI assistants and automating complex workspace workflows. In this paper, we introduce DocOps, a deterministically verifiable evaluation framework underpinned by a hierarchical taxonomy that deconstructs document operations inspired by real-world practices into atomic dimensions and escalating workflow complexities. Based on DocOps, we systematically evaluate representative closed- and open-source models across various agentic harnesses, revealing that even the most advanced frontier configurations still exhibit profound limitations when handling highly coupled, long-range tasks. Furthermore, a fine-grained analysis of existing agents' manipulation behaviors uncovers 3 key failure modes: long-term state tracking collapse, shallow semantic verification, and destructive editing of structural metadata. Ultimately, our work exposes the capability boundaries of agents in maintaining global document consistency, shedding light on the future design of robust, non-destructive agents for complex digital ecosystems.

Before the Action: Benchmarking LLMs on Prospective Hypothesis Discovery

Large language models (LLMs) excel at answering pre-specified questions, yet their ability to navigate the open-ended, pre-conclusion stage of discovery remains largely unmeasured. We introduce Prospective Hypothesis Discovery (PHD), which asks models to autonomously construct grounded, discriminative, and testable hypothesis spaces from inconclusive evidence, including anomalous observations and fragmented records, to guide subsequent investigation. To evaluate this capability, we introduce HypoArena, comprising HypoData, a benchmark of 988 cases across six scientific and analytical domains, and HypoEval, an evaluation framework for open-ended hypothesis sets. To construct HypoData at scale, we propose Retrospective Context Regression, a Forge--Audit pipeline that reconstructs pre-conclusion contexts from completed expert documents by removing explicit conclusions, target hypotheses, and retrospective causal attributions while preserving the factual substrate. Because PHD admits multiple valid outputs, HypoEval combines bidirectional pairwise judgments with Bradley--Terry--Davidson aggregation for ranking and six-dimensional rubric scoring for diagnosis. Experiments on 15 frontier LLMs reveal clear capability stratification and model-dependent effects of structured analytical skills, with gains for several lower-performing models on HypoArena but regressions for other systems, including a top-performing model. Compared with absolute rubric scoring, arena evaluation resolves finer-grained differences among models, with aggregated rankings showing strong agreement with human experts and an independent judge. Together, these results support treating PHD as a distinct target for evaluating how LLMs formulate investigative directions when final conclusions are withheld. Our code and data are publicly available at github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena and github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena.

ShortOPD: Recovering Pruned LLMs with Short-to-Long On-Policy Distillation

Structured pruning is a hardware-friendly way to compress LLMs, but it is mostly validated on multiple-choice recognition tasks, while the same compressed checkpoints can collapse on the free-form generation that deployment actually requires. Two observations trace this gap. First, greedy \textsc{pass}@$1$ nearly vanishes after compression, yet \textsc{pass}@$k$ recovers substantially under repeated sampling: useful generations are demoted, not erased. Second, the recoverable regime fails mainly through suffix repetition. Recovery should therefore train on the compressed model's own on-policy states with dense token-level supervision, which On-Policy Distillation (OPD) provides by reusing the pre-compression model as a frozen teacher. However, long on-policy rollouts spend early recovery budget on low-information repetitive suffixes, delaying loss descent. To mitigate this waste, we propose \textbf{\shortopd}, a short-to-long OPD schedule that detects teacher-confirmed repetitive suffixes, treats the surviving prefix as each rollout's effective length, and allocates future rollout budgets to the effective lengths the policy can currently use. Across math, code, and open-ended generation, \shortopd\ raises the compressed model's score to about $9\times$ its unrecovered value and $1.6$--$4.4\times$ standard recovery recipes (SFT w/o KD, KD, and SeqKD), and it matches a fixed $8192$-token rollout horizon within two points using a quarter of the training time ($8.5$ vs.\ $35.9$ hours) and $71\%$ fewer rollout tokens. We hope this recipe helps move structured pruning beyond marginal gains on perplexity and multiple-choice benchmarks, a step closer to deployment-ready generation quality.

OmniFocus: Query-Guided Modality-Balanced Token Compression for Omni-Modal Large Language Models

Omni modal large language models (OmniLLMs) have attracted wide attention for their ability to jointly process audio and video, but they generate large token sequences under audio-visual inputs, leading to substantial inference cost. Existing audio-visual token compression methods often rely on unimodal guidance, overlooking the temporal locality of query-relevant evidence in audio-visual inputs and implicitly assuming that the two modalities share a temporally aligned information density distribution. We propose \textbf{OmniFocus}, a training-free query-guided token compression method for OmniLLMs that performs independent importance estimation for video and audio, enabling a modality-symmetric compression design that preserves modality-specific salient evidence while maintaining audio-visual alignment, thereby mitigating the modality bias issue that can arise from unimodal-guided compression. Experiments on the Qwen2.5-Omni model family across four audio-visual benchmarks show that OmniFocus maintains strong compressed performance at low token retention ratios and outperforms existing baselines on several major benchmark scores at 25\% token retention. On DailyOmni with Qwen2.5-Omni-7B at 25\% token retention, OmniFocus maintains 59.40 accuracy while delivering up to 1.38$\times$ prefill speedup relative to the full-token baseline, highlighting a favorable practical accuracy-efficiency trade-off.

PraMem: Practice-derived Experiential Memory for Long-horizon Behavior Prediction

Long-horizon behavior prediction aims to infer a user's next action based on a lengthy historical sequence, playing a crucial role in artificial intelligence field. The rise of large language models (LLMs) offers a promising direction for sequential behavior prediction, yet LLMs struggle with latent behavioral pattern induction and model-intrinsic cognitive biases when tackling long-horizon behavior prediction. Prior memory management methods follow a context-compression paradigm that attempts to address this task by alleviating the historical sequence burden, yet fail to resolve the core challenges. In this paper, we advocate a paradigm shift that reframes the lengthy historical sequence from a burden into a valuable resource to be exploited, and accordingly propose PraMem, which conducts beforehand practice over the lengthy historical sequence to build an experiential memory, thereby serving as the assisted input for accurate long-horizon behavior prediction. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks demonstrate that PraMem achieves superior performance than prior methods, and more in-depth analyses provide valuable insights into the mechanism and evolution of the experiential memory. Code: https://github.com/icip-cas/PraMem.

ReasoningLens: Hierarchical Visualization and Diagnostic Auditing for Large Reasoning Models

The emergence of Large Reasoning Models has introduced exceptionally long Chain-of-Thought traces, creating a transparency burden where critical logic is often buried under massive procedural text. To address this, we present ReasoningLens, an open-source framework designed for the hierarchical visualization and diagnostic auditing of complex reasoning chains. ReasoningLens addresses information necropsy by: (1) structuring traces into interactive hierarchies that separate high-level strategy from low-level execution; (2) leveraging an agentic auditor for automated error detection and tool-augmented verification; and (3) synthesizing systemic reasoning profiles to reveal model-specific blind spots. By transforming unstructured walls of text into actionable insights, ReasoningLens provides a modular foundation for interpreting, debugging, and optimizing the next generation of reasoning-centric AI.

Verifiable Environments Are LEGO Bricks: Recursive Composition for Reasoning Generalization

Reinforcement Learning (RL) with verifiable environments has emerged as a powerful approach for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). While prior research demonstrates that scaling environment quantity improves RL performance, existing manual or individual construction methods suffer from linear scaling limits, thereby hindering scalable reasoning generalization. This paper introduces RACES (\textbf{R}ecursive \textbf{A}utomated \textbf{C}omposition for \textbf{E}nvironment \textbf{S}caling), a framework that conceptualizes verifiable environments as composable building blocks that can be recursively assembled. The key insight is that when the codomain (output type) of one environment matches the domain (input type) of another, they can be automatically fused into a new verifiable environment, enabling recursive composition. RACES is implemented with 300 individual environments and defines a set of composition operators (\textsc{SEQUENTIAL}, \textsc{PARALLEL}, \textsc{SORT}, and \textsc{SELECT}) that induce diverse reasoning patterns. Extensive experiments show that RL training on these composite environments consistently enhances reasoning generalization. Specifically, RACES improves DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-14B by an average of 3.1 points (from 48.2 to 51.3) and boosts Qwen3-14B performance from 58.8 to 61.1 on six benchmarks, which are unseen during the construction of training environments. Moreover, RACES achieves performance comparable to training on 300 individual environments using only 50 base environments, demonstrating significant efficiency in environment utilization.

The Meta-Agent Challenge: Are Current Agents Capable of Autonomous Agent Development?

Current AI benchmarks evaluate agents on task execution within human-designed workflows. These evaluations fundamentally fail to measure a critical next-level capability: whether models can autonomously develop agent systems. We introduce the Meta-Agent Challenge (MAC), an evaluation framework designed to test the capacity of frontier models for autonomous agent development. Specifically, a code agent (the meta-agent) is given a sandboxed environment, an evaluation API, and a time limitation to iteratively program an agent artifact that maximizes performance on a held-out test set across five domains. To ensure evaluation integrity, this framework is secured by multi-layer defenses against reward hacking. Leveraging this framework, we demonstrate that meta-agents rarely match human-engineered baseline policies, and the few that do are dominated by proprietary frontier models. Moreover, the design process exhibits high variance, and high optimization pressure surfaces emergent adversarial behaviors like ground-truth exfiltration-highlighting critical deficits in both robustness and model alignment. Ultimately, MAC provides a rigorous, open-source benchmark for autonomous AI research and development, offering an empirical proxy for evaluating recursive self-improvement. Benchmark is publicly available at: https://github.com/ant-research/meta-agent-challenge.