Do Reasoning Models Show Better Verbalized Calibration?

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have recently shown impressive capabilities in complex reasoning by leveraging increased test-time computation and exhibiting behaviors akin to human-like deliberation. Despite these advances, it remains an open question whether LRMs are better calibrated - particularly in their verbalized confidence - compared to instruction-tuned counterparts. In this paper, we investigate the calibration properties of LRMs trained via supervised fine-tuning distillation on long reasoning traces (henceforth SFT reasoning models) and outcome-based reinforcement learning for reasoning (henceforth RL reasoning models) across diverse domains. Our findings reveal that LRMs significantly outperform instruction-tuned models on complex reasoning tasks in both accuracy and confidence calibration. In contrast, we find surprising trends in the domain of factuality in particular. On factuality tasks, while Deepseek-R1 shows strong calibration behavior, smaller QwQ-32B shows no improvement over instruct models; moreover, SFT reasoning models display worse calibration (greater overconfidence) compared to instruct models. Our results provide evidence for a potentially critical role of reasoning-oriented RL training in improving LLMs' capacity for generating trustworthy, self-aware outputs.

MMLU-ProX: A Multilingual Benchmark for Advanced Large Language Model Evaluation

Traditional benchmarks struggle to evaluate increasingly sophisticated language models in multilingual and culturally diverse contexts. To address this gap, we introduce MMLU-ProX, a comprehensive multilingual benchmark covering 13 typologically diverse languages with approximately 11,829 questions per language. Building on the challenging reasoning-focused design of MMLU-Pro, our framework employs a semi-automatic translation process: translations generated by state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) are rigorously evaluated by expert annotators to ensure conceptual accuracy, terminological consistency, and cultural relevance. We comprehensively evaluate 25 state-of-the-art LLMs using 5-shot chain-of-thought (CoT) and zero-shot prompting strategies, analyzing their performance across linguistic and cultural boundaries. Our experiments reveal consistent performance degradation from high-resource languages to lower-resource ones, with the best models achieving over 70% accuracy on English but dropping to around 40% for languages like Swahili, highlighting persistent gaps in multilingual capabilities despite recent advances. MMLU-ProX is an ongoing project; we are expanding our benchmark by incorporating additional languages and evaluating more language models to provide a more comprehensive assessment of multilingual capabilities.

SCORE: Saturated Consensus Relocalization in Semantic Line Maps

This is the arxiv version for our paper submitted to IEEE/RSJ IROS 2025. We propose a scene-agnostic and light-weight visual relocalization framework that leverages semantically labeled 3D lines as a compact map representation. In our framework, the robot localizes itself by capturing a single image, extracting 2D lines, associating them with semantically similar 3D lines in the map, and solving a robust perspective-n-line problem. To address the extremely high outlier ratios~(exceeding 99.5\%) caused by one-to-many ambiguities in semantic matching, we introduce the Saturated Consensus Maximization~(Sat-CM) formulation, which enables accurate pose estimation when the classic Consensus Maximization framework fails. We further propose a fast global solver to the formulated Sat-CM problems, leveraging rigorous interval analysis results to ensure both accuracy and computational efficiency. Additionally, we develop a pipeline for constructing semantic 3D line maps using posed depth images. To validate the effectiveness of our framework, which integrates our innovations in robust estimation and practical engineering insights, we conduct extensive experiments on the ScanNet++ dataset.

ThinkBench: Dynamic Out-of-Distribution Evaluation for Robust LLM Reasoning

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) poses significant challenges, particularly due to issues of data contamination and the leakage of correct answers. To address these challenges, we introduce ThinkBench, a novel evaluation framework designed to evaluate LLMs' reasoning capability robustly. ThinkBench proposes a dynamic data generation method for constructing out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets and offers an OOD dataset that contains 2,912 samples drawn from reasoning tasks. ThinkBench unifies the evaluation of reasoning models and non-reasoning models. We evaluate 16 LLMs and 4 PRMs under identical experimental conditions and show that most of the LLMs' performance are far from robust and they face a certain level of data leakage. By dynamically generating OOD datasets, ThinkBench effectively provides a reliable evaluation of LLMs and reduces the impact of data contamination.

Sympathy over Polarization: A Computational Discourse Analysis of Social Media Posts about the July 2024 Trump Assassination Attempt

On July 13, 2024, at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania, someone attempted to assassinate Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump. This attempt sparked a large-scale discussion on social media. We collected posts from X (formerly known as Twitter) one week before and after the assassination attempt and aimed to model the short-term effects of such a ``shock'' on public opinions and discussion topics. Specifically, our study addresses three key questions: first, we investigate how public sentiment toward Donald Trump shifts over time and across regions (RQ1) and examine whether the assassination attempt itself significantly affects public attitudes, independent of the existing political alignments (RQ2). Finally, we explore the major themes in online conversations before and after the crisis, illustrating how discussion topics evolved in response to this politically charged event (RQ3). By integrating large language model-based sentiment analysis, difference-in-differences modeling, and topic modeling techniques, we find that following the attempt the public response was broadly sympathetic to Trump rather than polarizing, despite baseline ideological and regional disparities.

Causal Micro-Narratives

We present a novel approach to classify causal micro-narratives from text. These narratives are sentence-level explanations of the cause(s) and/or effect(s) of a target subject. The approach requires only a subject-specific ontology of causes and effects, and we demonstrate it with an application to inflation narratives. Using a human-annotated dataset spanning historical and contemporary US news articles for training, we evaluate several large language models (LLMs) on this multi-label classification task. The best-performing model--a fine-tuned Llama 3.1 8B--achieves F1 scores of 0.87 on narrative detection and 0.71 on narrative classification. Comprehensive error analysis reveals challenges arising from linguistic ambiguity and highlights how model errors often mirror human annotator disagreements. This research establishes a framework for extracting causal micro-narratives from real-world data, with wide-ranging applications to social science research.

Exploring Multilingual Probing in Large Language Models: A Cross-Language Analysis

Probing techniques for large language models (LLMs) have primarily focused on English, overlooking the vast majority of the world's languages. In this paper, we extend these probing methods to a multilingual context, investigating the behaviors of LLMs across diverse languages. We conduct experiments on several open-source LLM models, analyzing probing accuracy, trends across layers, and similarities between probing vectors for multiple languages. Our key findings reveal: (1) a consistent performance gap between high-resource and low-resource languages, with high-resource languages achieving significantly higher probing accuracy; (2) divergent layer-wise accuracy trends, where high-resource languages show substantial improvement in deeper layers similar to English; and (3) higher representational similarities among high-resource languages, with low-resource languages demonstrating lower similarities both among themselves and with high-resource languages. These results highlight significant disparities in LLMs' multilingual capabilities and emphasize the need for improved modeling of low-resource languages.

Optimal camera-robot pose estimation in linear time from points and lines

Camera pose estimation is a fundamental problem in robotics. This paper focuses on two issues of interest: First, point and line features have complementary advantages, and it is of great value to design a uniform algorithm that can fuse them effectively; Second, with the development of modern front-end techniques, a large number of features can exist in a single image, which presents a potential for highly accurate robot pose estimation. With these observations, we propose AOPnP(L), an optimal linear-time camera-robot pose estimation algorithm from points and lines. Specifically, we represent a line with two distinct points on it and unify the noise model for point and line measurements where noises are added to 2D points in the image. By utilizing Plucker coordinates for line parameterization, we formulate a maximum likelihood (ML) problem for combined point and line measurements. To optimally solve the ML problem, AOPnP(L) adopts a two-step estimation scheme. In the first step, a consistent estimate that can converge to the true pose is devised by virtue of bias elimination. In the second step, a single Gauss-Newton iteration is executed to refine the initial estimate. AOPnP(L) features theoretical optimality in the sense that its mean squared error converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Moreover, it owns a linear time complexity. These properties make it well-suited for precision-demanding and real-time robot pose estimation. Extensive experiments are conducted to validate our theoretical developments and demonstrate the superiority of AOPnP(L) in both static localization and dynamic odometry systems.

Uncertainty is Fragile: Manipulating Uncertainty in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges the likelihood of their answers being correct. While many studies focus on improving the accuracy of uncertainty estimations for LLMs, our research investigates the fragility of uncertainty estimation and explores potential attacks. We demonstrate that an attacker can embed a backdoor in LLMs, which, when activated by a specific trigger in the input, manipulates the model's uncertainty without affecting the final output. Specifically, the proposed backdoor attack method can alter an LLM's output probability distribution, causing the probability distribution to converge towards an attacker-predefined distribution while ensuring that the top-1 prediction remains unchanged. Our experimental results demonstrate that this attack effectively undermines the model's self-evaluation reliability in multiple-choice questions. For instance, we achieved a 100 attack success rate (ASR) across three different triggering strategies in four models. Further, we investigate whether this manipulation generalizes across different prompts and domains. This work highlights a significant threat to the reliability of LLMs and underscores the need for future defenses against such attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/qcznlp/uncertainty_attack.

Exploring Concept Depth: How Large Language Models Acquire Knowledge at Different Layers?

This paper studies the phenomenon that different concepts are learned in different layers of large language models, i.e. more difficult concepts are fully acquired with deeper layers. We define the difficulty of concepts by the level of abstraction, and here it is crudely categorized by factual, emotional, and inferential. Each category contains a spectrum of tasks, arranged from simple to complex. For example, within the factual dimension, tasks range from lie detection to categorizing mathematical problems. We employ a probing technique to extract representations from different layers of the model and apply these to classification tasks. Our findings reveal that models tend to efficiently classify simpler tasks, indicating that these concepts are learned in shallower layers. Conversely, more complex tasks may only be discernible at deeper layers, if at all. This paper explores the implications of these findings for our understanding of model learning processes and internal representations. Our implementation is available at \url{https://github.com/Luckfort/CD}.