Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loop

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototype-based time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multi-modal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow -- prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement -- continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9\% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

SAUP: Situation Awareness Uncertainty Propagation on LLM Agent

Large language models (LLMs) integrated into multistep agent systems enable complex decision-making processes across various applications. However, their outputs often lack reliability, making uncertainty estimation crucial. Existing uncertainty estimation methods primarily focus on final-step outputs, which fail to account for cumulative uncertainty over the multistep decision-making process and the dynamic interactions between agents and their environments. To address these limitations, we propose SAUP (Situation Awareness Uncertainty Propagation), a novel framework that propagates uncertainty through each step of an LLM-based agent's reasoning process. SAUP incorporates situational awareness by assigning situational weights to each step's uncertainty during the propagation. Our method, compatible with various one-step uncertainty estimation techniques, provides a comprehensive and accurate uncertainty measure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that SAUP significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, achieving up to 20% improvement in AUROC.

Decoding Time Series with LLMs: A Multi-Agent Framework for Cross-Domain Annotation

Time series data is ubiquitous across various domains, including manufacturing, finance, and healthcare. High-quality annotations are essential for effectively understanding time series and facilitating downstream tasks; however, obtaining such annotations is challenging, particularly in mission-critical domains. In this paper, we propose TESSA, a multi-agent system designed to automatically generate both general and domain-specific annotations for time series data. TESSA introduces two agents: a general annotation agent and a domain-specific annotation agent. The general agent captures common patterns and knowledge across multiple source domains, leveraging both time-series-wise and text-wise features to generate general annotations. Meanwhile, the domain-specific agent utilizes limited annotations from the target domain to learn domain-specific terminology and generate targeted annotations. Extensive experiments on multiple synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that TESSA effectively generates high-quality annotations, outperforming existing methods.

Pruning as a Domain-specific LLM Extractor

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable proficiency across a wide array of NLP tasks. However, the escalation in model size also engenders substantial deployment costs. While few efforts have explored model pruning techniques to reduce the size of LLMs, they mainly center on general or task-specific weights. This leads to suboptimal performance due to lacking specificity on the target domain or generality on different tasks when applied to domain-specific challenges. This work introduces an innovative unstructured dual-pruning methodology, D-Pruner, for domain-specific compression on LLM. It extracts a compressed, domain-specific, and task-agnostic LLM by identifying LLM weights that are pivotal for general capabilities, like linguistic capability and multi-task solving, and domain-specific knowledge. More specifically, we first assess general weight importance by quantifying the error incurred upon their removal with the help of an open-domain calibration dataset. Then, we utilize this general weight importance to refine the training loss, so that it preserves generality when fitting into a specific domain. Moreover, by efficiently approximating weight importance with the refined training loss on a domain-specific calibration dataset, we obtain a pruned model emphasizing generality and specificity. Our comprehensive experiments across various tasks in healthcare and legal domains show the effectiveness of D-Pruner in domain-specific compression. Our code is available at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/D-Pruner.

InfuserKI: Enhancing Large Language Models with Knowledge Graphs via Infuser-Guided Knowledge Integration

Though Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable open-generation capabilities across diverse domains, they struggle with knowledge-intensive tasks. To alleviate this issue, knowledge integration methods have been proposed to enhance LLMs with domain-specific knowledge graphs using external modules. However, they suffer from data inefficiency as they require both known and unknown knowledge for fine-tuning. Thus, we study a novel problem of integrating unknown knowledge into LLMs efficiently without unnecessary overlap of known knowledge. Injecting new knowledge poses the risk of forgetting previously acquired knowledge. To tackle this, we propose a novel Infuser-Guided Knowledge Integration (InfuserKI) framework that utilizes transformer internal states to determine whether to enhance the original LLM output with additional information, thereby effectively mitigating knowledge forgetting. Evaluations on the UMLS-2.5k and MetaQA domain knowledge graphs demonstrate that InfuserKI can effectively acquire new knowledge and outperform state-of-the-art baselines by 9% and 6%, respectively, in reducing knowledge forgetting.

Uncertainty Decomposition and Quantification for In-Context Learning of Large Language Models

In-context learning has emerged as a groundbreaking ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) and revolutionized various fields by providing a few task-relevant demonstrations in the prompt. However, trustworthy issues with LLM's response, such as hallucination, have also been actively discussed. Existing works have been devoted to quantifying the uncertainty in LLM's response, but they often overlook the complex nature of LLMs and the uniqueness of in-context learning. In this work, we delve into the predictive uncertainty of LLMs associated with in-context learning, highlighting that such uncertainties may stem from both the provided demonstrations (aleatoric uncertainty) and ambiguities tied to the model's configurations (epistemic uncertainty). We propose a novel formulation and corresponding estimation method to quantify both types of uncertainties. The proposed method offers an unsupervised way to understand the prediction of in-context learning in a plug-and-play fashion. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the decomposition. The code and data are available at: \url{https://github.com/lingchen0331/UQ_ICL}.

Open-ended Commonsense Reasoning with Unrestricted Answer Scope

Open-ended Commonsense Reasoning is defined as solving a commonsense question without providing 1) a short list of answer candidates and 2) a pre-defined answer scope. Conventional ways of formulating the commonsense question into a question-answering form or utilizing external knowledge to learn retrieval-based methods are less applicable in the open-ended setting due to an inherent challenge. Without pre-defining an answer scope or a few candidates, open-ended commonsense reasoning entails predicting answers by searching over an extremely large searching space. Moreover, most questions require implicit multi-hop reasoning, which presents even more challenges to our problem. In this work, we leverage pre-trained language models to iteratively retrieve reasoning paths on the external knowledge base, which does not require task-specific supervision. The reasoning paths can help to identify the most precise answer to the commonsense question. We conduct experiments on two commonsense benchmark datasets. Compared to other approaches, our proposed method achieves better performance both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Dynamic DAG Discovery for Interpretable Imitation Learning

Imitation learning, which learns agent policy by mimicking expert demonstration, has shown promising results in many applications such as medical treatment regimes and self-driving vehicles. However, it remains a difficult task to interpret control policies learned by the agent. Difficulties mainly come from two aspects: 1) agents in imitation learning are usually implemented as deep neural networks, which are black-box models and lack interpretability; 2) the latent causal mechanism behind agents' decisions may vary along the trajectory, rather than staying static throughout time steps. To increase transparency and offer better interpretability of the neural agent, we propose to expose its captured knowledge in the form of a directed acyclic causal graph, with nodes being action and state variables and edges denoting the causal relations behind predictions. Furthermore, we design this causal discovery process to be state-dependent, enabling it to model the dynamics in latent causal graphs. Concretely, we conduct causal discovery from the perspective of Granger causality and propose a self-explainable imitation learning framework, {\method}. The proposed framework is composed of three parts: a dynamic causal discovery module, a causality encoding module, and a prediction module, and is trained in an end-to-end manner. After the model is learned, we can obtain causal relations among states and action variables behind its decisions, exposing policies learned by it. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed {\method} in learning the dynamic causal graphs for understanding the decision-making of imitation learning meanwhile maintaining high prediction accuracy.

Distantly-Supervised Joint Entity and Relation Extraction with Noise-Robust Learning

Joint entity and relation extraction is a process that identifies entity pairs and their relations using a single model. We focus on the problem of training these models on distantly-labeled data, which is generated by aligning entity mentions in a text corpus with their corresponding entity and relation types in a knowledge base. One key challenge here is the presence of noisy labels, which arises from both entity and relation annotations, and significantly impair the effectiveness of supervised learning applications. However, existing research primarily addresses only one type of noise, thereby limiting the effectiveness of noise reduction. To fill this gap, we introduce a new noise-robust approach, that 1)~incorporates a pre-trained GPT-2 into a sequence tagging scheme for simultaneous entity and relation detection, and 2)~employs a noise-robust learning framework which includes a new loss function that penalizes inconsistency with both significant relation patterns and entity-relation dependencies, as well as a self-adaptive learning step that iteratively selects and trains on high-quality instances. Experiments on two datasets show that our method outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods in both joint extraction performance and noise reduction effect.

Large Language Models Can Be Good Privacy Protection Learners

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) has driven considerable interest in fine-tuning them with domain-specific data to create specialized language models. Nevertheless, such domain-specific fine-tuning data often contains sensitive personally identifiable information (PII). Direct fine-tuning LLMs on this data without privacy protection poses a risk of leakage. To address this challenge, we introduce Privacy Protection Language Models (PPLM), a novel paradigm for fine-tuning LLMs that effectively injects domain-specific knowledge while safeguarding data privacy. Our work offers a theoretical analysis for model design and delves into various techniques such as corpus curation, penalty-based unlikelihood in training loss, and instruction-based tuning, etc. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of our approaches. In particular, instruction tuning with both positive and negative examples, stands out as a promising method, effectively protecting private data while enhancing the model's knowledge. Our work underscores the potential for Large Language Models as robust privacy protection learners.