PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Prediction

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) provides a practical and effective approach for equipping deep learning models with uncertainty estimates in the form of set-valued predictions which are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with high probability. Despite the appeal of this coverage guarantee, these sets may not be efficient: the size and contents of the prediction sets are not directly controlled, and instead depend on the underlying model and choice of score function. To remedy this, recent work has proposed learning model and score function parameters using data to directly optimize the efficiency of the ICP prediction sets. While appealing, the generalization theory for such an approach is lacking: direct optimization of empirical efficiency may yield prediction sets that are either no longer efficient on test data, or no longer obtain the required coverage on test data. In this work, we use PAC-Bayes theory to obtain generalization bounds on both the coverage and the efficiency of set-valued predictors which can be directly optimized to maximize efficiency while satisfying a desired test coverage. In contrast to prior work, our framework allows us to utilize the entire calibration dataset to learn the parameters of the model and score function, instead of requiring a separate hold-out set for obtaining test-time coverage guarantees. We leverage these theoretical results to provide a practical algorithm for using calibration data to simultaneously fine-tune the parameters of a model and score function while guaranteeing test-time coverage and efficiency of the resulting prediction sets. We evaluate the approach on regression and classification tasks, and outperform baselines calibrated using a Hoeffding bound-based PAC guarantee on ICP, especially in the low-data regime.

Dolphins: Multimodal Language Model for Driving

The quest for fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) capable of navigating complex real-world scenarios with human-like understanding and responsiveness. In this paper, we introduce Dolphins, a novel vision-language model architected to imbibe human-like abilities as a conversational driving assistant. Dolphins is adept at processing multimodal inputs comprising video (or image) data, text instructions, and historical control signals to generate informed outputs corresponding to the provided instructions. Building upon the open-sourced pretrained Vision-Language Model, OpenFlamingo, we first enhance Dolphins's reasoning capabilities through an innovative Grounded Chain of Thought (GCoT) process. Then we tailored Dolphins to the driving domain by constructing driving-specific instruction data and conducting instruction tuning. Through the utilization of the BDD-X dataset, we designed and consolidated four distinct AV tasks into Dolphins to foster a holistic understanding of intricate driving scenarios. As a result, the distinctive features of Dolphins are characterized into two dimensions: (1) the ability to provide a comprehensive understanding of complex and long-tailed open-world driving scenarios and solve a spectrum of AV tasks, and (2) the emergence of human-like capabilities including gradient-free instant adaptation via in-context learning and error recovery via reflection.

Categorical Traffic Transformer: Interpretable and Diverse Behavior Prediction with Tokenized Latent

Adept traffic models are critical to both planning and closed-loop simulation for autonomous vehicles (AV), and key design objectives include accuracy, diverse multimodal behaviors, interpretability, and downstream compatibility. Recently, with the advent of large language models (LLMs), an additional desirable feature for traffic models is LLM compatibility. We present Categorical Traffic Transformer (CTT), a traffic model that outputs both continuous trajectory predictions and tokenized categorical predictions (lane modes, homotopies, etc.). The most outstanding feature of CTT is its fully interpretable latent space, which enables direct supervision of the latent variable from the ground truth during training and avoids mode collapse completely. As a result, CTT can generate diverse behaviors conditioned on different latent modes with semantic meanings while beating SOTA on prediction accuracy. In addition, CTT's ability to input and output tokens enables integration with LLMs for common-sense reasoning and zero-shot generalization.

A Language Agent for Autonomous Driving

Human-level driving is an ultimate goal of autonomous driving. Conventional approaches formulate autonomous driving as a perception-prediction-planning framework, yet their systems do not capitalize on the inherent reasoning ability and experiential knowledge of humans. In this paper, we propose a fundamental paradigm shift from current pipelines, exploiting Large Language Models (LLMs) as a cognitive agent to integrate human-like intelligence into autonomous driving systems. Our approach, termed Agent-Driver, transforms the traditional autonomous driving pipeline by introducing a versatile tool library accessible via function calls, a cognitive memory of common sense and experiential knowledge for decision-making, and a reasoning engine capable of chain-of-thought reasoning, task planning, motion planning, and self-reflection. Powered by LLMs, our Agent-Driver is endowed with intuitive common sense and robust reasoning capabilities, thus enabling a more nuanced, human-like approach to autonomous driving. We evaluate our approach on the large-scale nuScenes benchmark, and extensive experiments substantiate that our Agent-Driver significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art driving methods by a large margin. Our approach also demonstrates superior interpretability and few-shot learning ability to these methods. Code will be released.

Real-time Control of Electric Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand Systems via Graph Reinforcement Learning

Operators of Electric Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (E-AMoD) fleets need to make several real-time decisions such as matching available cars to ride requests, rebalancing idle cars to areas of high demand, and charging vehicles to ensure sufficient range. While this problem can be posed as a linear program that optimizes flows over a space-charge-time graph, the size of the resulting optimization problem does not allow for real-time implementation in realistic settings. In this work, we present the E-AMoD control problem through the lens of reinforcement learning and propose a graph network-based framework to achieve drastically improved scalability and superior performance over heuristics. Specifically, we adopt a bi-level formulation where we (1) leverage a graph network-based RL agent to specify a desired next state in the space-charge graph, and (2) solve more tractable linear programs to best achieve the desired state while ensuring feasibility. Experiments using real-world data from San Francisco and New York City show that our approach achieves up to 89% of the profits of the theoretically-optimal solution while achieving more than a 100x speedup in computational time. Furthermore, our approach outperforms the best domain-specific heuristics with comparable runtimes, with an increase in profits by up to 3x. Finally, we highlight promising zero-shot transfer capabilities of our learned policy on tasks such as inter-city generalization and service area expansion, thus showing the utility, scalability, and flexibility of our framework.

Augmenting Lane Perception and Topology Understanding with Standard Definition Navigation Maps

Autonomous driving has traditionally relied heavily on costly and labor-intensive High Definition (HD) maps, hindering scalability. In contrast, Standard Definition (SD) maps are more affordable and have worldwide coverage, offering a scalable alternative. In this work, we systematically explore the effect of SD maps for real-time lane-topology understanding. We propose a novel framework to integrate SD maps into online map prediction and propose a Transformer-based encoder, SD Map Encoder Representations from transFormers, to leverage priors in SD maps for the lane-topology prediction task. This enhancement consistently and significantly boosts (by up to 60%) lane detection and topology prediction on current state-of-the-art online map prediction methods without bells and whistles and can be immediately incorporated into any Transformer-based lane-topology method. Code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/SMERF.

EmerNeRF: Emergent Spatial-Temporal Scene Decomposition via Self-Supervision

We present EmerNeRF, a simple yet powerful approach for learning spatial-temporal representations of dynamic driving scenes. Grounded in neural fields, EmerNeRF simultaneously captures scene geometry, appearance, motion, and semantics via self-bootstrapping. EmerNeRF hinges upon two core components: First, it stratifies scenes into static and dynamic fields. This decomposition emerges purely from self-supervision, enabling our model to learn from general, in-the-wild data sources. Second, EmerNeRF parameterizes an induced flow field from the dynamic field and uses this flow field to further aggregate multi-frame features, amplifying the rendering precision of dynamic objects. Coupling these three fields (static, dynamic, and flow) enables EmerNeRF to represent highly-dynamic scenes self-sufficiently, without relying on ground truth object annotations or pre-trained models for dynamic object segmentation or optical flow estimation. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in sensor simulation, significantly outperforming previous methods when reconstructing static (+2.93 PSNR) and dynamic (+3.70 PSNR) scenes. In addition, to bolster EmerNeRF's semantic generalization, we lift 2D visual foundation model features into 4D space-time and address a general positional bias in modern Transformers, significantly boosting 3D perception performance (e.g., 37.50% relative improvement in occupancy prediction accuracy on average). Finally, we construct a diverse and challenging 120-sequence dataset to benchmark neural fields under extreme and highly-dynamic settings.

Interactive Motion Planning for Autonomous Vehicles with Joint Optimization

In highly interactive driving scenarios, the actions of one agent greatly influences those of its neighbors. Planning safe motions for autonomous vehicles in such interactive environments, therefore, requires reasoning about the impact of the ego's intended motion plan on nearby agents' behavior. Deep-learning-based models have recently achieved great success in trajectory prediction and many models in the literature allow for ego-conditioned prediction. However, leveraging ego-conditioned prediction remains challenging in downstream planning due to the complex nature of neural networks, limiting the planner structure to simple ones, e.g., sampling-based planner. Despite their ability to generate fine-grained high-quality motion plans, it is difficult for gradient-based planning algorithms, such as model predictive control (MPC), to leverage ego-conditioned prediction due to their iterative nature and need for gradient. We present Interactive Joint Planning (IJP) that bridges MPC with learned prediction models in a computationally scalable manner to provide us the best of both the worlds. In particular, IJP jointly optimizes over the behavior of the ego and the surrounding agents and leverages deep-learned prediction models as prediction priors that the join trajectory optimization tries to stay close to. Furthermore, by leveraging homotopy classes, our joint optimizer searches over diverse motion plans to avoid getting stuck at local minima. Closed-loop simulation result shows that IJP significantly outperforms the baselines that are either without joint optimization or running sampling-based planning.

Transformers for Trajectory Optimization with Application to Spacecraft Rendezvous

Reliable and efficient trajectory optimization methods are a fundamental need for autonomous dynamical systems, effectively enabling applications including rocket landing, hypersonic reentry, spacecraft rendezvous, and docking. Within such safety-critical application areas, the complexity of the emerging trajectory optimization problems has motivated the application of AI-based techniques to enhance the performance of traditional approaches. However, current AI-based methods either attempt to fully replace traditional control algorithms, thus lacking constraint satisfaction guarantees and incurring in expensive simulation, or aim to solely imitate the behavior of traditional methods via supervised learning. To address these limitations, this paper proposes the Autonomous Rendezvous Transformer (ART) and assesses the capability of modern generative models to solve complex trajectory optimization problems, both from a forecasting and control standpoint. Specifically, this work assesses the capabilities of Transformers to (i) learn near-optimal policies from previously collected data, and (ii) warm-start a sequential optimizer for the solution of non-convex optimal control problems, thus guaranteeing hard constraint satisfaction. From a forecasting perspective, results highlight how ART outperforms other learning-based architectures at predicting known fuel-optimal trajectories. From a control perspective, empirical analyses show how policies learned through Transformers are able to generate near-optimal warm-starts, achieving trajectories that are (i) more fuel-efficient, (ii) obtained in fewer sequential optimizer iterations, and (iii) computed with an overall runtime comparable to benchmarks based on convex optimization.

DTPP: Differentiable Joint Conditional Prediction and Cost Evaluation for Tree Policy Planning in Autonomous Driving

Motion prediction and cost evaluation are vital components in the decision-making system of autonomous vehicles. However, existing methods often ignore the importance of cost learning and treat them as separate modules. In this study, we employ a tree-structured policy planner and propose a differentiable joint training framework for both ego-conditioned prediction and cost models, resulting in a direct improvement of the final planning performance. For conditional prediction, we introduce a query-centric Transformer model that performs efficient ego-conditioned motion prediction. For planning cost, we propose a learnable context-aware cost function with latent interaction features, facilitating differentiable joint learning. We validate our proposed approach using the real-world nuPlan dataset and its associated planning test platform. Our framework not only matches state-of-the-art planning methods but outperforms other learning-based methods in planning quality, while operating more efficiently in terms of runtime. We show that joint training delivers significantly better performance than separate training of the two modules. Additionally, we find that tree-structured policy planning outperforms the conventional single-stage planning approach.