IMM: An Imitative Reinforcement Learning Approach with Predictive Representation Learning for Automatic Market Making

Market making (MM) has attracted significant attention in financial trading owing to its essential function in ensuring market liquidity. With strong capabilities in sequential decision-making, Reinforcement Learning (RL) technology has achieved remarkable success in quantitative trading. Nonetheless, most existing RL-based MM methods focus on optimizing single-price level strategies which fail at frequent order cancellations and loss of queue priority. Strategies involving multiple price levels align better with actual trading scenarios. However, given the complexity that multi-price level strategies involves a comprehensive trading action space, the challenge of effectively training profitable RL agents for MM persists. Inspired by the efficient workflow of professional human market makers, we propose Imitative Market Maker (IMM), a novel RL framework leveraging both knowledge from suboptimal signal-based experts and direct policy interactions to develop multi-price level MM strategies efficiently. The framework start with introducing effective state and action representations adept at encoding information about multi-price level orders. Furthermore, IMM integrates a representation learning unit capable of capturing both short- and long-term market trends to mitigate adverse selection risk. Subsequently, IMM formulates an expert strategy based on signals and trains the agent through the integration of RL and imitation learning techniques, leading to efficient learning. Extensive experimental results on four real-world market datasets demonstrate that IMM outperforms current RL-based market making strategies in terms of several financial criteria. The findings of the ablation study substantiate the effectiveness of the model components.

Alpha-GPT: Human-AI Interactive Alpha Mining for Quantitative Investment

One of the most important tasks in quantitative investment research is mining new alphas (effective trading signals or factors). Traditional alpha mining methods, either hand-crafted factor synthesizing or algorithmic factor mining (e.g., search with genetic programming), have inherent limitations, especially in implementing the ideas of quants. In this work, we propose a new alpha mining paradigm by introducing human-AI interaction, and a novel prompt engineering algorithmic framework to implement this paradigm by leveraging the power of large language models. Moreover, we develop Alpha-GPT, a new interactive alpha mining system framework that provides a heuristic way to ``understand'' the ideas of quant researchers and outputs creative, insightful, and effective alphas. We demonstrate the effectiveness and advantage of Alpha-GPT via a number of alpha mining experiments.

Think-on-Graph: Deep and Responsible Reasoning of Large Language Model with Knowledge Graph

Large language models (LLMs) have made significant strides in various tasks, yet they often struggle with complex reasoning and exhibit poor performance in scenarios where knowledge traceability, timeliness, and accuracy are crucial. To address these limitations, we present Think-on-Graph (ToG), a novel framework that leverages knowledge graphs to enhance LLMs' ability for deep and responsible reasoning. By employing ToG, we can identify entities relevant to a given question and conduct exploration and reasoning to retrieve related triples from an external knowledge database. This iterative procedure generates multiple reasoning pathways consisting of sequentially connected triplets until sufficient information is gathered to answer the question or the maximum depth is reached. Through experiments on complex multi-hop reasoning question-answering tasks, we demonstrate that ToG outperforms existing methods, effectively addressing the aforementioned limitations of LLMs without incurring additional training costs.

Unveiling the Potential of Sentiment: Can Large Language Models Predict Chinese Stock Price Movements?

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to extensive discourse regarding their potential to boost the return of quantitative stock trading strategies. This discourse primarily revolves around harnessing the remarkable comprehension capabilities of LLMs to extract sentiment factors which facilitate informed and high-frequency investment portfolio adjustments. To ensure successful implementations of these LLMs into the analysis of Chinese financial texts and the subsequent trading strategy development within the Chinese stock market, we provide a rigorous and encompassing benchmark as well as a standardized back-testing framework aiming at objectively assessing the efficacy of various types of LLMs in the specialized domain of sentiment factor extraction from Chinese news text data. To illustrate how our benchmark works, we reference three distinctive models: 1) the generative LLM (ChatGPT), 2) the Chinese language-specific pre-trained LLM (Erlangshen-RoBERTa), and 3) the financial domain-specific fine-tuned LLM classifier(Chinese FinBERT). We apply them directly to the task of sentiment factor extraction from large volumes of Chinese news summary texts. We then proceed to building quantitative trading strategies and running back-tests under realistic trading scenarios based on the derived sentiment factors and evaluate their performances with our benchmark. By constructing such a comparative analysis, we invoke the question of what constitutes the most important element for improving a LLM's performance on extracting sentiment factors. And by ensuring that the LLMs are evaluated on the same benchmark, following the same standardized experimental procedures that are designed with sufficient expertise in quantitative trading, we make the first stride toward answering such a question.

AR-Diffusion: Auto-Regressive Diffusion Model for Text Generation

Diffusion models have gained significant attention in the realm of image generation due to their exceptional performance. Their success has been recently expanded to text generation via generating all tokens within a sequence concurrently. However, natural language exhibits a far more pronounced sequential dependency in comparison to images, and the majority of existing language models are trained with a left-to-right auto-regressive approach. To account for the inherent sequential characteristic of natural language, we introduce Auto-Regressive Diffusion (AR-Diffusion). AR-Diffusion ensures that the generation of tokens on the right depends on the generated ones on the left, a mechanism achieved through employing a dynamic number of denoising steps that vary based on token position. This results in tokens on the left undergoing fewer denoising steps than those on the right, thereby enabling them to generate earlier and subsequently influence the generation of tokens on the right. In a series of experiments on various text generation tasks, including text summarization, machine translation, and common sense generation, AR-Diffusion clearly demonstrated its superiority over existing diffusion language models and that it can be $100\times\sim600\times$ faster when achieving comparable results. Our code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/ProphetNet/tree/master/AR-diffusion.

Dynamic Datasets and Market Environments for Financial Reinforcement Learning

The financial market is a particularly challenging playground for deep reinforcement learning due to its unique feature of dynamic datasets. Building high-quality market environments for training financial reinforcement learning (FinRL) agents is difficult due to major factors such as the low signal-to-noise ratio of financial data, survivorship bias of historical data, and model overfitting. In this paper, we present FinRL-Meta, a data-centric and openly accessible library that processes dynamic datasets from real-world markets into gym-style market environments and has been actively maintained by the AI4Finance community. First, following a DataOps paradigm, we provide hundreds of market environments through an automatic data curation pipeline. Second, we provide homegrown examples and reproduce popular research papers as stepping stones for users to design new trading strategies. We also deploy the library on cloud platforms so that users can visualize their own results and assess the relative performance via community-wise competitions. Third, we provide dozens of Jupyter/Python demos organized into a curriculum and a documentation website to serve the rapidly growing community. The open-source codes for the data curation pipeline are available at https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRL-Meta

Enhancing Chain-of-Thoughts Prompting with Iterative Bootstrapping in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) can achieve highly effective performance on various reasoning tasks by incorporating step-by-step chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting as demonstrations. However, the reasoning chains of demonstrations generated by LLMs are prone to errors, which can subsequently lead to incorrect reasoning during inference. Furthermore, inappropriate exemplars (overly simplistic or complex), can affect overall performance among varying levels of difficulty. We introduce Iter-CoT (Iterative bootstrapping in Chain-of-Thoughts Prompting), an iterative bootstrapping approach for selecting exemplars and generating reasoning chains. By utilizing iterative bootstrapping, our approach enables LLMs to autonomously rectify errors, resulting in more precise and comprehensive reasoning chains. Simultaneously, our approach selects challenging yet answerable questions accompanied by reasoning chains as exemplars with a moderate level of difficulty, which enhances the LLMs' generalizability across varying levels of difficulty. Experimental results indicate that Iter-CoT exhibits superiority, achieving competitive performance across three distinct reasoning tasks on eleven datasets.

APOLLO: An Optimized Training Approach for Long-form Numerical Reasoning

Long-form numerical reasoning in financial analysis aims to generate a reasoning program to calculate the correct answer for a given question. Previous work followed a retriever-generator framework, where the retriever selects key facts from a long-form document, and the generator generates a reasoning program based on retrieved facts. However, they treated all facts equally without considering the different contributions of facts with and without numbers. Meanwhile, the program consistency were ignored under supervised training, resulting in lower training accuracy and diversity. To solve these problems, we proposed APOLLO to improve the long-form numerical reasoning framework. For the retriever, we adopt a number-aware negative sampling strategy to enable the retriever to be more discriminative on key numerical facts. For the generator, we design consistency-based reinforcement learning and target program augmentation strategy based on the consistency of program execution results. Experimental results on the FinQA and ConvFinQA leaderboard verify the effectiveness of our proposed method, achieving the new state-of-the-art.

Sentiment-Aware Word and Sentence Level Pre-training for Sentiment Analysis

Most existing pre-trained language representation models (PLMs) are sub-optimal in sentiment analysis tasks, as they capture the sentiment information from word-level while under-considering sentence-level information. In this paper, we propose SentiWSP, a novel Sentiment-aware pre-trained language model with combined Word-level and Sentence-level Pre-training tasks. The word level pre-training task detects replaced sentiment words, via a generator-discriminator framework, to enhance the PLM's knowledge about sentiment words. The sentence level pre-training task further strengthens the discriminator via a contrastive learning framework, with similar sentences as negative samples, to encode sentiments in a sentence. Extensive experimental results show that SentiWSP achieves new state-of-the-art performance on various sentence-level and aspect-level sentiment classification benchmarks. We have made our code and model publicly available at https://github.com/XMUDM/SentiWSP.

Exploiting Reward Shifting in Value-Based Deep RL

In this work, we study the simple yet universally applicable case of reward shaping in value-based Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). We show that reward shifting in the form of the linear transformation is equivalent to changing the initialization of the $Q$-function in function approximation. Based on such an equivalence, we bring the key insight that a positive reward shifting leads to conservative exploitation, while a negative reward shifting leads to curiosity-driven exploration. Accordingly, conservative exploitation improves offline RL value estimation, and optimistic value estimation improves exploration for online RL. We validate our insight on a range of RL tasks and show its improvement over baselines: (1) In offline RL, the conservative exploitation leads to improved performance based on off-the-shelf algorithms; (2) In online continuous control, multiple value functions with different shifting constants can be used to tackle the exploration-exploitation dilemma for better sample efficiency; (3) In discrete control tasks, a negative reward shifting yields an improvement over the curiosity-based exploration method.