Time series analysis is a vital task with broad applications in various domains. However, effectively capturing cross-dimension and cross-time dependencies in non-stationary time series poses significant challenges, particularly in the context of environmental factors. The spurious correlation induced by the environment confounds the causal relationships between cross-dimension and cross-time dependencies. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework called Caformer (\underline{\textbf{Ca}}usal Trans\underline{\textbf{former}}) for time series analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, our framework comprises three components: Dynamic Learner, Environment Learner, and Dependency Learner. The Dynamic Learner unveils dynamic interactions among dimensions, the Environment Learner mitigates spurious correlations caused by environment with a back-door adjustment, and the Dependency Learner aims to infer robust interactions across both time and dimensions. Our Caformer demonstrates consistent state-of-the-art performance across five mainstream time series analysis tasks, including long- and short-term forecasting, imputation, classification, and anomaly detection, with proper interpretability.
The field of general time series analysis has recently begun to explore unified modeling, where a common architectural backbone can be retrained on a specific task for a specific dataset. In this work, we approach unification from a complementary vantage point: unification across tasks and domains. To this end, we explore the impact of discrete, learnt, time series data representations that enable generalist, cross-domain training. Our method, TOTEM, or TOkenized Time Series EMbeddings, proposes a simple tokenizer architecture that embeds time series data from varying domains using a discrete vectorized representation learned in a self-supervised manner. TOTEM works across multiple tasks and domains with minimal to no tuning. We study the efficacy of TOTEM with an extensive evaluation on 17 real world time series datasets across 3 tasks. We evaluate both the specialist (i.e., training a model on each domain) and generalist (i.e., training a single model on many domains) settings, and show that TOTEM matches or outperforms previous best methods on several popular benchmarks. The code can be found at: https://github.com/SaberaTalukder/TOTEM.
This paper introduces ConvTimeNet, a novel deep hierarchical fully convolutional network designed to serve as a general-purpose model for time series analysis. The key design of this network is twofold, designed to overcome the limitations of traditional convolutional networks. Firstly, we propose an adaptive segmentation of time series into sub-series level patches, treating these as fundamental modeling units. This setting avoids the sparsity semantics associated with raw point-level time steps. Secondly, we design a fully convolutional block by skillfully integrating deepwise and pointwise convolution operations, following the advanced building block style employed in Transformer encoders. This backbone network allows for the effective capture of both global sequence and cross-variable dependence, as it not only incorporates the advancements of Transformer architecture but also inherits the inherent properties of convolution. Furthermore, multi-scale representations of given time series instances can be learned by controlling the kernel size flexibly. Extensive experiments are conducted on both time series forecasting and classification tasks. The results consistently outperformed strong baselines in most situations in terms of effectiveness.The code is publicly available.
Recently, remarkable progress has been made over large language models (LLMs), demonstrating their unprecedented capability in varieties of natural language tasks. However, completely training a large general-purpose model from the scratch is challenging for time series analysis, due to the large volumes and varieties of time series data, as well as the non-stationarity that leads to concept drift impeding continuous model adaptation and re-training. Recent advances have shown that pre-trained LLMs can be exploited to capture complex dependencies in time series data and facilitate various applications. In this survey, we provide a systematic overview of existing methods that leverage LLMs for time series analysis. Specifically, we first state the challenges and motivations of applying language models in the context of time series as well as brief preliminaries of LLMs. Next, we summarize the general pipeline for LLM-based time series analysis, categorize existing methods into different groups (i.e., direct query, tokenization, prompt design, fine-tune, and model integration), and highlight the key ideas within each group. We also discuss the applications of LLMs for both general and spatial-temporal time series data, tailored to specific domains. Finally, we thoroughly discuss future research opportunities to empower time series analysis with LLMs.
Time series analysis is essential for comprehending the complexities inherent in various real-world systems and applications. Although large language models (LLMs) have recently made significant strides, the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) equipped with time series analysis capabilities remains in its nascent phase. Most existing time series models heavily rely on domain knowledge and extensive model tuning, predominantly focusing on prediction tasks. In this paper, we argue that current LLMs have the potential to revolutionize time series analysis, thereby promoting efficient decision-making and advancing towards a more universal form of time series analytical intelligence. Such advancement could unlock a wide range of possibilities, including modality switching and time series question answering. We encourage researchers and practitioners to recognize the potential of LLMs in advancing time series analysis and emphasize the need for trust in these related efforts. Furthermore, we detail the seamless integration of time series analysis with existing LLM technologies and outline promising avenues for future research.
Time series analysis and modelling constitute a crucial research area. Traditional artificial neural networks struggle with complex, non-stationary time series data due to high computational complexity, limited ability to capture temporal information, and difficulty in handling event-driven data. To address these challenges, we propose a Multi-modal Time Series Analysis Model Based on Spiking Neural Network (MTSA-SNN). The Pulse Encoder unifies the encoding of temporal images and sequential information in a common pulse-based representation. The Joint Learning Module employs a joint learning function and weight allocation mechanism to fuse information from multi-modal pulse signals complementary. Additionally, we incorporate wavelet transform operations to enhance the model's ability to analyze and evaluate temporal information. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieved superior performance on three complex time-series tasks. This work provides an effective event-driven approach to overcome the challenges associated with analyzing intricate temporal information. Access to the source code is available at https://github.com/Chenngzz/MTSA-SNN}{https://github.com/Chenngzz/MTSA-SNN
Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.
Social media platforms hold valuable insights, yet extracting essential information can be challenging. Traditional top-down approaches often struggle to capture critical signals in rapidly changing events. As global events evolve swiftly, social media narratives, including instances of disinformation, become significant sources of insights. To address the need for an inductive strategy, we explore a niche social media platform GAB and an established messaging service Telegram, to develop methodologies applicable on a broader scale. This study investigates narrative evolution on these platforms using quantitative corpus-based discourse analysis techniques. Our approach is a novel mode to study multiple social media domains to distil key information which may be obscured otherwise, allowing for useful and actionable insights. The paper details the technical and methodological aspects of gathering and preprocessing GAB and Telegram data for a keyness (Log Ratio) metric analysis, identifying crucial nouns and verbs for deeper exploration. Empirically, this approach is applied to a case study of a well defined event that had global impact: the 2023 Wagner mutiny. The main findings are: (1) the time line can be deconstructed to provide useful data features allowing for improved interpretation; (2) a methodology is applied which provides a basis for generalization. The key contribution is an approach, that in some cases, provides the ability to capture the dynamic narrative shifts over time with elevated confidence. The approach can augment near-real-time assessment of key social movements, allowing for informed governance choices. This research is important because it lays out a useful methodology for time series relevant info-culling, which can enable proactive modes for positive social engagement.
Capsule Neural Networks utilize capsules, which bind neurons into a single vector and learn position equivariant features, which makes them more robust than original Convolutional Neural Networks. CapsNets employ an affine transformation matrix and dynamic routing with coupling coefficients to learn robustly. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of CapsNets in analyzing highly sensitive and noisy time series sensor data. To demonstrate CapsNets robustness, we compare their performance with original CNNs on electrocardiogram data, a medical time series sensor data with complex patterns and noise. Our study provides empirical evidence that CapsNets function as noise stabilizers, as investigated by manual and adversarial attack experiments using the fast gradient sign method and three manual attacks, including offset shifting, gradual drift, and temporal lagging. In summary, CapsNets outperform CNNs in both manual and adversarial attacked data. Our findings suggest that CapsNets can be effectively applied to various sensor systems to improve their resilience to noise attacks. These results have significant implications for designing and implementing robust machine learning models in real world applications. Additionally, this study contributes to the effectiveness of CapsNet models in handling noisy data and highlights their potential for addressing the challenges of noise data in time series analysis.
In this study, we leverage SCADA data from diverse wind turbines to predict power output, employing advanced time series methods, specifically Functional Neural Networks (FNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. A key innovation lies in the ensemble of FNN and LSTM models, capitalizing on their collective learning. This ensemble approach outperforms individual models, ensuring stable and accurate power output predictions. Additionally, machine learning techniques are applied to detect wind turbine performance deterioration, enabling proactive maintenance strategies and health assessment. Crucially, our analysis reveals the uniqueness of each wind turbine, necessitating tailored models for optimal predictions. These insight underscores the importance of providing automatized customization for different turbines to keep human modeling effort low. Importantly, the methodologies developed in this analysis are not limited to wind turbines; they can be extended to predict and optimize performance in various machinery, highlighting the versatility and applicability of our research across diverse industrial contexts.