Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting: An Experimental Comparison of Machine Learning Methods

With the growing popularity of electric vehicles as a means of addressing climate change, concerns have emerged regarding their impact on electric grid management. As a result, predicting EV charging demand has become a timely and important research problem. While substantial research has addressed energy load forecasting in transportation, relatively few studies systematically compare multiple forecasting methods across different temporal horizons and spatial aggregation levels in diverse urban settings. This work investigates the effectiveness of five time series forecasting models, ranging from traditional statistical approaches to machine learning and deep learning methods. Forecasting performance is evaluated for short-, mid-, and long-term horizons (on the order of minutes, hours, and days, respectively), and across spatial scales ranging from individual charging stations to regional and city-level aggregations. The analysis is conducted on four publicly available real-world datasets, with results reported independently for each dataset. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to systematically evaluate EV charging demand forecasting across such a wide range of temporal horizons and spatial aggregation levels using multiple real-world datasets.

MotionTeller: Multi-modal Integration of Wearable Time-Series with LLMs for Health and Behavioral Understanding

As wearable sensing becomes increasingly pervasive, a key challenge remains: how can we generate natural language summaries from raw physiological signals such as actigraphy - minute-level movement data collected via accelerometers? In this work, we introduce MotionTeller, a generative framework that natively integrates minute-level wearable activity data with large language models (LLMs). MotionTeller combines a pretrained actigraphy encoder with a lightweight projection module that maps behavioral embeddings into the token space of a frozen decoder-only LLM, enabling free-text, autoregressive generation of daily behavioral summaries. We construct a novel dataset of 54383 (actigraphy, text) pairs derived from real-world NHANES recordings, and train the model using cross-entropy loss with supervision only on the language tokens. MotionTeller achieves high semantic fidelity (BERTScore-F1 = 0.924) and lexical accuracy (ROUGE-1 = 0.722), outperforming prompt-based baselines by 7 percent in ROUGE-1. The average training loss converges to 0.38 by epoch 15, indicating stable optimization. Qualitative analysis confirms that MotionTeller captures circadian structure and behavioral transitions, while PCA plots reveal enhanced cluster alignment in embedding space post-training. Together, these results position MotionTeller as a scalable, interpretable system for transforming wearable sensor data into fluent, human-centered descriptions, introducing new pathways for behavioral monitoring, clinical review, and personalized health interventions.

Pattern-Guided Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have shown promise in forecasting future data from multivariate time series. However, few existing methods account for recurring structures, or patterns, that appear within the data. We present Pattern-Guided Diffusion Models (PGDM), which leverage inherent patterns within temporal data for forecasting future time steps. PGDM first extracts patterns using archetypal analysis and estimates the most likely next pattern in the sequence. By guiding predictions with this pattern estimate, PGDM makes more realistic predictions that fit within the set of known patterns. We additionally introduce a novel uncertainty quantification technique based on archetypal analysis, and we dynamically scale the guidance level based on the pattern estimate uncertainty. We apply our method to two well-motivated forecasting applications, predicting visual field measurements and motion capture frames. On both, we show that pattern guidance improves PGDM's performance (MAE / CRPS) by up to 40.67% / 56.26% and 14.12% / 14.10%, respectively. PGDM also outperforms baselines by up to 65.58% / 84.83% and 93.64% / 92.55%.

Discovering Operational Patterns Using Image-Based Convolutional Clustering and Composite Evaluation: A Case Study in Foundry Melting Processes

Industrial process monitoring increasingly relies on sensor-generated time-series data, yet the lack of labels, high variability, and operational noise make it difficult to extract meaningful patterns using conventional methods. Existing clustering techniques either rely on fixed distance metrics or deep models designed for static data, limiting their ability to handle dynamic, unstructured industrial sequences. Addressing this gap, this paper proposes a novel framework for unsupervised discovery of operational modes in univariate time-series data using image-based convolutional clustering with composite internal evaluation. The proposed framework improves upon existing approaches in three ways: (1) raw time-series sequences are transformed into grayscale matrix representations via overlapping sliding windows, allowing effective feature extraction using a deep convolutional autoencoder; (2) the framework integrates both soft and hard clustering outputs and refines the selection through a two-stage strategy; and (3) clustering performance is objectively evaluated by a newly developed composite score, S_eva, which combines normalized Silhouette, Calinski-Harabasz, and Davies-Bouldin indices. Applied to over 3900 furnace melting operations from a Nordic foundry, the method identifies seven explainable operational patterns, revealing significant differences in energy consumption, thermal dynamics, and production duration. Compared to classical and deep clustering baselines, the proposed approach achieves superior overall performance, greater robustness, and domain-aligned explainability. The framework addresses key challenges in unsupervised time-series analysis, such as sequence irregularity, overlapping modes, and metric inconsistency, and provides a generalizable solution for data-driven diagnostics and energy optimization in industrial systems.

Semiconductor Industry Trend Prediction with Event Intervention Based on LSTM Model in Sentiment-Enhanced Time Series Data

The innovation of the study is that the deep learning method and sentiment analysis are integrated in traditional business model analysis and forecasting, and the research subject is TSMC for industry trend prediction of semiconductor industry in Taiwan. For the rapid market changes and development of wafer technologies of semiconductor industry, traditional data analysis methods not perform well in the high variety and time series data. Textual data and time series data were collected from seasonal reports of TSMC including financial information. Textual data through sentiment analysis by considering the event intervention both from internal events of the company and the external global events. Using the sentiment-enhanced time series data, the LSTM model was adopted for predicting industry trend of TSMC. The prediction results reveal significant development of wafer technology of TSMC and the potential threatens in the global market, and matches the product released news of TSMC and the international news. The contribution of the work performed accurately in industry trend prediction of the semiconductor industry by considering both the internal and external event intervention, and the prediction results provide valuable information of semiconductor industry both in research and business aspects.

SigTime: Learning and Visually Explaining Time Series Signatures

Understanding and distinguishing temporal patterns in time series data is essential for scientific discovery and decision-making. For example, in biomedical research, uncovering meaningful patterns in physiological signals can improve diagnosis, risk assessment, and patient outcomes. However, existing methods for time series pattern discovery face major challenges, including high computational complexity, limited interpretability, and difficulty in capturing meaningful temporal structures. To address these gaps, we introduce a novel learning framework that jointly trains two Transformer models using complementary time series representations: shapelet-based representations to capture localized temporal structures and traditional feature engineering to encode statistical properties. The learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures that differentiate time series across classification labels. Additionally, we develop a visual analytics system -- SigTIme -- with coordinated views to facilitate exploration of time series signatures from multiple perspectives, aiding in useful insights generation. We quantitatively evaluate our learning framework on eight publicly available datasets and one proprietary clinical dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through two usage scenarios along with the domain experts: one involving public ECG data and the other focused on preterm labor analysis.

TimeLens: Rethinking Video Temporal Grounding with Multimodal LLMs

This paper does not introduce a novel method but instead establishes a straightforward, incremental, yet essential baseline for video temporal grounding (VTG), a core capability in video understanding. While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) excel at various video understanding tasks, the recipes for optimizing them for VTG remain under-explored. In this paper, we present TimeLens, a systematic investigation into building MLLMs with strong VTG ability, along two primary dimensions: data quality and algorithmic design. We first expose critical quality issues in existing VTG benchmarks and introduce TimeLens-Bench, comprising meticulously re-annotated versions of three popular benchmarks with strict quality criteria. Our analysis reveals dramatic model re-rankings compared to legacy benchmarks, confirming the unreliability of prior evaluation standards. We also address noisy training data through an automated re-annotation pipeline, yielding TimeLens-100K, a large-scale, high-quality training dataset. Building on our data foundation, we conduct in-depth explorations of algorithmic design principles, yielding a series of meaningful insights and effective yet efficient practices. These include interleaved textual encoding for time representation, a thinking-free reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) approach as the training paradigm, and carefully designed recipes for RLVR training. These efforts culminate in TimeLens models, a family of MLLMs with state-of-the-art VTG performance among open-source models and even surpass proprietary models such as GPT-5 and Gemini-2.5-Flash. All codes, data, and models will be released to facilitate future research.

A Multivariate Statistical Framework for Detection, Classification and Pre-localization of Anomalies in Water Distribution Networks

This paper presents a unified framework, for the detection, classification, and preliminary localization of anomalies in water distribution networks using multivariate statistical analysis. The approach, termed SICAMS (Statistical Identification and Classification of Anomalies in Mahalanobis Space), processes heterogeneous pressure and flow sensor data through a whitening transformation to eliminate spatial correlations among measurements. Based on the transformed data, the Hotelling's $T^2$ statistic is constructed, enabling the formulation of anomaly detection as a statistical hypothesis test of network conformity to normal operating conditions. It is shown that Hotelling's $T^2$ statistic can serve as an integral indicator of the overall "health" of the system, exhibiting correlation with total leakage volume, and thereby enabling approximate estimation of water losses via a regression model. A heuristic algorithm is developed to analyze the $T^2$ time series and classify detected anomalies into abrupt leaks, incipient leaks, and sensor malfunctions. Furthermore, a coarse leak localization method is proposed, which ranks sensors according to their statistical contribution and employs Laplacian interpolation to approximate the affected region within the network. Application of the proposed framework to the BattLeDIM L-Town benchmark dataset demonstrates high sensitivity and reliability in leak detection, maintaining robust performance even under multiple leaks. These capabilities make the method applicable to real-world operational environments without the need for a calibrated hydraulic model.

A Regime-Aware Fusion Framework for Time Series Classification

Kernel-based methods such as Rocket are among the most effective default approaches for univariate time series classification (TSC), yet they do not perform equally well across all datasets. We revisit the long-standing intuition that different representations capture complementary structure and show that selectively fusing them can yield consistent improvements over Rocket on specific, systematically identifiable kinds of datasets. We introduce Fusion-3 (F3), a lightweight framework that adaptively fuses Rocket, Sax, and Sfa representations. To understand when fusion helps, we cluster UCR datasets into six groups using meta-features capturing series length, spectral structure, roughness, and class imbalance, and treat these clusters as interpretable data-structure regimes. Our analysis shows that fusion typically outperforms strong baselines in regimes with structured variability or rich frequency content, while offering diminishing returns in highly irregular or outlier-heavy settings. To support these findings, we combine three complementary analyses: non-parametric paired statistics across datasets, ablation studies isolating the roles of individual representations, and attribution via SHAP to identify which dataset properties predict fusion gains. Sample-level case studies further reveal the underlying mechanism: fusion primarily improves performance by rescuing specific errors, with adaptive increases in frequency-domain weighting precisely where corrections occur. Using 5-fold cross-validation on the 113 UCR datasets, F3 yields small but consistent average improvements over Rocket, supported by frequentist and Bayesian evidence and accompanied by clearly identifiable failure cases. Our results show that selectively applied fusion provides dependable and interpretable extension to strong kernel-based methods, correcting their weaknesses precisely where the data support it.

Near-real time fires detection using satellite imagery in Sudan conflict

The challenges of ongoing war in Sudan highlight the need for rapid monitoring and analysis of such conflicts. Advances in deep learning and readily available satellite remote sensing imagery allow for near real-time monitoring. This paper uses 4-band imagery from Planet Labs with a deep learning model to show that fire damage in armed conflicts can be monitored with minimal delay. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using five case studies in Sudan. We show that, compared to a baseline, the automated method captures the active fires and charred areas more accurately. Our results indicate that using 8-band imagery or time series of such imagery only result in marginal gains.