Near-real time fires detection using satellite imagery in Sudan conflict

The challenges of ongoing war in Sudan highlight the need for rapid monitoring and analysis of such conflicts. Advances in deep learning and readily available satellite remote sensing imagery allow for near real-time monitoring. This paper uses 4-band imagery from Planet Labs with a deep learning model to show that fire damage in armed conflicts can be monitored with minimal delay. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using five case studies in Sudan. We show that, compared to a baseline, the automated method captures the active fires and charred areas more accurately. Our results indicate that using 8-band imagery or time series of such imagery only result in marginal gains.

Investigating ECG Diagnosis with Ambiguous Labels using Partial Label Learning

Label ambiguity is an inherent problem in real-world electrocardiogram (ECG) diagnosis, arising from overlapping conditions and diagnostic disagreement. However, current ECG models are trained under the assumption of clean and non-ambiguous annotations, which limits both the development and the meaningful evaluation of models under real-world conditions. Although Partial Label Learning (PLL) frameworks are designed to learn from ambiguous labels, their effectiveness in medical time-series domains, ECG in particular, remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the first systematic study of PLL methods for ECG diagnosis. We adapt nine PLL algorithms to multi-label ECG diagnosis and evaluate them using a diverse set of clinically motivated ambiguity generation strategies, capturing both unstructured (e.g., random) and structured ambiguities (e.g., cardiologist-derived similarities, treatment relationships, and diagnostic taxonomies). Our experiments on the PTB-XL and Chapman datasets demonstrate that PLL methods vary substantially in their robustness to different types and degrees of ambiguity. Through extensive analysis, we identify key limitations of current PLL approaches in clinical settings and outline future directions for developing robust and clinically aligned ambiguity-aware learning frameworks for ECG diagnosis.

STAMP: Spatial-Temporal Adapter with Multi-Head Pooling

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) pretrained on data from multiple domains have shown strong performance on diverse modeling tasks. Various efforts have been made to develop foundation models specific to electroencephalography (EEG) data, which records brain electrical activity as time series. However, no comparative analysis of EEG-specific foundation models (EEGFMs) versus general TSFMs has been performed on EEG-specific tasks. We introduce a novel Spatial-Temporal Adapter with Multi-Head Pooling (STAMP), which leverages univariate embeddings produced by a general TSFM, implicitly models spatial-temporal characteristics of EEG data, and achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art EEGFMs. A comprehensive analysis is performed on 8 benchmark datasets of clinical tasks using EEG for classification, along with ablation studies. Our proposed adapter is lightweight in trainable parameters and flexible in the inputs it can accommodate, supporting easy modeling of EEG data using TSFMs.

A Theoretical Analysis of Detecting Large Model-Generated Time Series

Motivated by the increasing risks of data misuse and fabrication, we investigate the problem of identifying synthetic time series generated by Time-Series Large Models (TSLMs) in this work. While there are extensive researches on detecting model generated text, we find that these existing methods are not applicable to time series data due to the fundamental modality difference, as time series usually have lower information density and smoother probability distributions than text data, which limit the discriminative power of token-based detectors. To address this issue, we examine the subtle distributional differences between real and model-generated time series and propose the contraction hypothesis, which states that model-generated time series, unlike real ones, exhibit progressively decreasing uncertainty under recursive forecasting. We formally prove this hypothesis under theoretical assumptions on model behavior and time series structure. Model-generated time series exhibit progressively concentrated distributions under recursive forecasting, leading to uncertainty contraction. We provide empirical validation of the hypothesis across diverse datasets. Building on this insight, we introduce the Uncertainty Contraction Estimator (UCE), a white-box detector that aggregates uncertainty metrics over successive prefixes to identify TSLM-generated time series. Extensive experiments on 32 datasets show that UCE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, offering a reliable and generalizable solution for detecting model-generated time series.

HAROOD: A Benchmark for Out-of-distribution Generalization in Sensor-based Human Activity Recognition

Sensor-based human activity recognition (HAR) mines activity patterns from the time-series sensory data. In realistic scenarios, variations across individuals, devices, environments, and time introduce significant distributional shifts for the same activities. Recent efforts attempt to solve this challenge by applying or adapting existing out-of-distribution (OOD) algorithms, but only in certain distribution shift scenarios (e.g., cross-device or cross-position), lacking comprehensive insights on the effectiveness of these algorithms. For instance, is OOD necessary to HAR? Which OOD algorithm performs the best? In this paper, we fill this gap by proposing HAROOD, a comprehensive benchmark for HAR in OOD settings. We define 4 OOD scenarios: cross-person, cross-position, cross-dataset, and cross-time, and build a testbed covering 6 datasets, 16 comparative methods (implemented with CNN-based and Transformer-based architectures), and two model selection protocols. Then, we conduct extensive experiments and present several findings for future research, e.g., no single method consistently outperforms others, highlighting substantial opportunity for advancement. Our codebase is highly modular and easy to extend for new datasets, algorithms, comparisons, and analysis, with the hope to facilitate the research in OOD-based HAR. Our implementation is released and can be found at https://github.com/AIFrontierLab/HAROOD.

Spectral Predictability as a Fast Reliability Indicator for Time Series Forecasting Model Selection

Practitioners deploying time series forecasting models face a dilemma: exhaustively validating dozens of models is computationally prohibitive, yet choosing the wrong model risks poor performance. We show that spectral predictability~$Ω$ -- a simple signal processing metric -- systematically stratifies model family performance, enabling fast model selection. We conduct controlled experiments in four different domains, then further expand our analysis to 51 models and 28 datasets from the GIFT-Eval benchmark. We find that large time series foundation models (TSFMs) systematically outperform lightweight task-trained baselines when $Ω$ is high, while their advantage vanishes as $Ω$ drops. Computing $Ω$ takes seconds per dataset, enabling practitioners to quickly assess whether their data suits TSFM approaches or whether simpler, cheaper models suffice. We demonstrate that $Ω$ stratifies model performance predictably, offering a practical first-pass filter that reduces validation costs while highlighting the need for models that excel on genuinely difficult (low-$Ω$) problems rather than merely optimizing easy ones.

Multivariate Time series Anomaly Detection:A Framework of Hidden Markov Models

In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering and fuzzy integral are studied. In the sequel, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), one of the commonly encountered statistical methods, is engaged here to detect anomalies in multivariate time series. We construct HMM-based anomaly detectors and in this context compare several transformation methods. A suite of experimental studies along with some comparative analysis is reported.

Optimal Look-back Horizon for Time Series Forecasting in Federated Learning

Selecting an appropriate look-back horizon remains a fundamental challenge in time series forecasting (TSF), particularly in the federated learning scenarios where data is decentralized, heterogeneous, and often non-independent. While recent work has explored horizon selection by preserving forecasting-relevant information in an intrinsic space, these approaches are primarily restricted to centralized and independently distributed settings. This paper presents a principled framework for adaptive horizon selection in federated time series forecasting through an intrinsic space formulation. We introduce a synthetic data generator (SDG) that captures essential temporal structures in client data, including autoregressive dependencies, seasonality, and trend, while incorporating client-specific heterogeneity. Building on this model, we define a transformation that maps time series windows into an intrinsic representation space with well-defined geometric and statistical properties. We then derive a decomposition of the forecasting loss into a Bayesian term, which reflects irreducible uncertainty, and an approximation term, which accounts for finite-sample effects and limited model capacity. Our analysis shows that while increasing the look-back horizon improves the identifiability of deterministic patterns, it also increases approximation error due to higher model complexity and reduced sample efficiency. We prove that the total forecasting loss is minimized at the smallest horizon where the irreducible loss starts to saturate, while the approximation loss continues to rise. This work provides a rigorous theoretical foundation for adaptive horizon selection for time series forecasting in federated learning.

MedFuse: Multiplicative Embedding Fusion For Irregular Clinical Time Series

Clinical time series derived from electronic health records (EHRs) are inherently irregular, with asynchronous sampling, missing values, and heterogeneous feature dynamics. While numerical laboratory measurements are highly informative, existing embedding strategies usually combine feature identity and value embeddings through additive operations, which constrains their ability to capture value-dependent feature interactions. We propose MedFuse, a framework for irregular clinical time series centered on the MuFuse (Multiplicative Embedding Fusion) module. MuFuse fuses value and feature embeddings through multiplicative modulation, preserving feature-specific information while modeling higher-order dependencies across features. Experiments on three real-world datasets covering both intensive and chronic care show that MedFuse consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on key predictive tasks. Analysis of the learned representations further demonstrates that multiplicative fusion enhances expressiveness and supports cross-dataset pretraining. These results establish MedFuse as a generalizable approach for modeling irregular clinical time series.

SurvBench: A Standardised Preprocessing Pipeline for Multi-Modal Electronic Health Record Survival Analysis

Electronic health record (EHR) data present tremendous opportunities for advancing survival analysis through deep learning, yet reproducibility remains severely constrained by inconsistent preprocessing methodologies. We present SurvBench, a comprehensive, open-source preprocessing pipeline that transforms raw PhysioNet datasets into standardised, model-ready tensors for multi-modal survival analysis. SurvBench provides data loaders for three major critical care databases, MIMIC-IV, eICU, and MC-MED, supporting diverse modalities including time-series vitals, static demographics, ICD diagnosis codes, and radiology reports. The pipeline implements rigorous data quality controls, patient-level splitting to prevent data leakage, explicit missingness tracking, and standardised temporal aggregation. SurvBench handles both single-risk (e.g., in-hospital mortality) and competing-risks scenarios (e.g., multiple discharge outcomes). The outputs are compatible with pycox library packages and implementations of standard statistical and deep learning models. By providing reproducible, configuration-driven preprocessing with comprehensive documentation, SurvBench addresses the "preprocessing gap" that has hindered fair comparison of deep learning survival models, enabling researchers to focus on methodological innovation rather than data engineering.