The monotonicity of the Franz-Parisi potential is equivalent with Low-degree MMSE lower bounds

Over the last decades, two distinct approaches have been instrumental to our understanding of the computational complexity of statistical estimation. The statistical physics literature predicts algorithmic hardness through local stability and monotonicity properties of the Franz--Parisi (FP) potential \cite{franz1995recipes,franz1997phase}, while the mathematically rigorous literature characterizes hardness via the limitations of restricted algorithmic classes, most notably low-degree polynomial estimators \cite{hopkins2017efficient}. For many inference models, these two perspectives yield strikingly consistent predictions, giving rise to a long-standing open problem of establishing a precise mathematical relationship between them. In this work, we show that for estimation problems the power of low-degree polynomials is equivalent to the monotonicity of the annealed FP potential for a broad family of Gaussian additive models (GAMs) with signal-to-noise ratio $λ$. In particular, subject to a low-degree conjecture for GAMs, our results imply that the polynomial-time limits of these models are directly implied by the monotonicity of the annealed FP potential, in conceptual agreement with predictions from the physics literature dating back to the 1990s.

Almost-Optimal Local-Search Methods for Sparse Tensor PCA

Local-search methods are widely employed in statistical applications, yet interestingly, their theoretical foundations remain rather underexplored, compared to other classes of estimators such as low-degree polynomials and spectral methods. Of note, among the few existing results recent studies have revealed a significant "local-computational" gap in the context of a well-studied sparse tensor principal component analysis (PCA), where a broad class of local Markov chain methods exhibits a notable underperformance relative to other polynomial-time algorithms. In this work, we propose a series of local-search methods that provably "close" this gap to the best known polynomial-time procedures in multiple regimes of the model, including and going beyond the previously studied regimes in which the broad family of local Markov chain methods underperforms. Our framework includes: (1) standard greedy and randomized greedy algorithms applied to the (regularized) posterior of the model; and (2) novel random-threshold variants, in which the randomized greedy algorithm accepts a proposed transition if and only if the corresponding change in the Hamiltonian exceeds a random Gaussian threshold-rather that if and only if it is positive, as is customary. The introduction of the random thresholds enables a tight mathematical analysis of the randomized greedy algorithm's trajectory by crucially breaking the dependencies between the iterations, and could be of independent interest to the community.