On Subjective Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration in Natural Language Generation

Applications of large language models often involve the generation of free-form responses, in which case uncertainty quantification becomes challenging. This is due to the need to identify task-specific uncertainties (e.g., about the semantics) which appears difficult to define in general cases. This work addresses these challenges from a perspective of Bayesian decision theory, starting from the assumption that our utility is characterized by a similarity measure that compares a generated response with a hypothetical true response. We discuss how this assumption enables principled quantification of the model's subjective uncertainty and its calibration. We further derive a measure for epistemic uncertainty, based on a missing data perspective and its characterization as an excess risk. The proposed measures can be applied to black-box language models. We demonstrate the proposed methods on question answering and machine translation tasks, where they extract broadly meaningful uncertainty estimates from GPT and Gemini models and quantify their calibration.

Is In-Context Learning in Large Language Models Bayesian? A Martingale Perspective

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a particularly remarkable characteristic of Large Language Models (LLM): given a pretrained LLM and an observed dataset, LLMs can make predictions for new data points from the same distribution without fine-tuning. Numerous works have postulated ICL as approximately Bayesian inference, rendering this a natural hypothesis. In this work, we analyse this hypothesis from a new angle through the martingale property, a fundamental requirement of a Bayesian learning system for exchangeable data. We show that the martingale property is a necessary condition for unambiguous predictions in such scenarios, and enables a principled, decomposed notion of uncertainty vital in trustworthy, safety-critical systems. We derive actionable checks with corresponding theory and test statistics which must hold if the martingale property is satisfied. We also examine if uncertainty in LLMs decreases as expected in Bayesian learning when more data is observed. In three experiments, we provide evidence for violations of the martingale property, and deviations from a Bayesian scaling behaviour of uncertainty, falsifying the hypothesis that ICL is Bayesian.

CLAY: A Controllable Large-scale Generative Model for Creating High-quality 3D Assets

In the realm of digital creativity, our potential to craft intricate 3D worlds from imagination is often hampered by the limitations of existing digital tools, which demand extensive expertise and efforts. To narrow this disparity, we introduce CLAY, a 3D geometry and material generator designed to effortlessly transform human imagination into intricate 3D digital structures. CLAY supports classic text or image inputs as well as 3D-aware controls from diverse primitives (multi-view images, voxels, bounding boxes, point clouds, implicit representations, etc). At its core is a large-scale generative model composed of a multi-resolution Variational Autoencoder (VAE) and a minimalistic latent Diffusion Transformer (DiT), to extract rich 3D priors directly from a diverse range of 3D geometries. Specifically, it adopts neural fields to represent continuous and complete surfaces and uses a geometry generative module with pure transformer blocks in latent space. We present a progressive training scheme to train CLAY on an ultra large 3D model dataset obtained through a carefully designed processing pipeline, resulting in a 3D native geometry generator with 1.5 billion parameters. For appearance generation, CLAY sets out to produce physically-based rendering (PBR) textures by employing a multi-view material diffusion model that can generate 2K resolution textures with diffuse, roughness, and metallic modalities. We demonstrate using CLAY for a range of controllable 3D asset creations, from sketchy conceptual designs to production ready assets with intricate details. Even first time users can easily use CLAY to bring their vivid 3D imaginations to life, unleashing unlimited creativity.

Flow Snapshot Neurons in Action: Deep Neural Networks Generalize to Biological Motion Perception

Biological motion perception (BMP) refers to humans' ability to perceive and recognize the actions of living beings solely from their motion patterns, sometimes as minimal as those depicted on point-light displays. While humans excel at these tasks without any prior training, current AI models struggle with poor generalization performance. To close this research gap, we propose the Motion Perceiver (MP). MP solely relies on patch-level optical flows from video clips as inputs. During training, it learns prototypical flow snapshots through a competitive binding mechanism and integrates invariant motion representations to predict action labels for the given video. During inference, we evaluate the generalization ability of all AI models and humans on 62,656 video stimuli spanning 24 BMP conditions using point-light displays in neuroscience. Remarkably, MP outperforms all existing AI models with a maximum improvement of 29% in top-1 action recognition accuracy on these conditions. Moreover, we benchmark all AI models in point-light displays of two standard video datasets in computer vision. MP also demonstrates superior performance in these cases. More interestingly, via psychophysics experiments, we found that MP recognizes biological movements in a way that aligns with human behavioural data. All data and code will be made public.

Affine-based Deformable Attention and Selective Fusion for Semi-dense Matching

Identifying robust and accurate correspondences across images is a fundamental problem in computer vision that enables various downstream tasks. Recent semi-dense matching methods emphasize the effectiveness of fusing relevant cross-view information through Transformer. In this paper, we propose several improvements upon this paradigm. Firstly, we introduce affine-based local attention to model cross-view deformations. Secondly, we present selective fusion to merge local and global messages from cross attention. Apart from network structure, we also identify the importance of enforcing spatial smoothness in loss design, which has been omitted by previous works. Based on these augmentations, our network demonstrate strong matching capacity under different settings. The full version of our network achieves state-of-the-art performance among semi-dense matching methods at a similar cost to LoFTR, while the slim version reaches LoFTR baseline's performance with only 15% computation cost and 18% parameters.

Whole-Song Hierarchical Generation of Symbolic Music Using Cascaded Diffusion Models

Recent deep music generation studies have put much emphasis on long-term generation with structures. However, we are yet to see high-quality, well-structured whole-song generation. In this paper, we make the first attempt to model a full music piece under the realization of compositional hierarchy. With a focus on symbolic representations of pop songs, we define a hierarchical language, in which each level of hierarchy focuses on the semantics and context dependency at a certain music scope. The high-level languages reveal whole-song form, phrase, and cadence, whereas the low-level languages focus on notes, chords, and their local patterns. A cascaded diffusion model is trained to model the hierarchical language, where each level is conditioned on its upper levels. Experiments and analysis show that our model is capable of generating full-piece music with recognizable global verse-chorus structure and cadences, and the music quality is higher than the baselines. Additionally, we show that the proposed model is controllable in a flexible way. By sampling from the interpretable hierarchical languages or adjusting pre-trained external representations, users can control the music flow via various features such as phrase harmonic structures, rhythmic patterns, and accompaniment texture.

Efflex: Efficient and Flexible Pipeline for Spatio-Temporal Trajectory Graph Modeling and Representation Learning

In the landscape of spatio-temporal data analytics, effective trajectory representation learning is paramount. To bridge the gap of learning accurate representations with efficient and flexible mechanisms, we introduce Efflex, a comprehensive pipeline for transformative graph modeling and representation learning of the large-volume spatio-temporal trajectories. Efflex pioneers the incorporation of a multi-scale k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm with feature fusion for graph construction, marking a leap in dimensionality reduction techniques by preserving essential data features. Moreover, the groundbreaking graph construction mechanism and the high-performance lightweight GCN increase embedding extraction speed by up to 36 times faster. We further offer Efflex in two versions, Efflex-L for scenarios demanding high accuracy, and Efflex-B for environments requiring swift data processing. Comprehensive experimentation with the Porto and Geolife datasets validates our approach, positioning Efflex as the state-of-the-art in the domain. Such enhancements in speed and accuracy highlight the versatility of Efflex, underscoring its wide-ranging potential for deployment in time-sensitive and computationally constrained applications.

VeTraSS: Vehicle Trajectory Similarity Search Through Graph Modeling and Representation Learning

Trajectory similarity search plays an essential role in autonomous driving, as it enables vehicles to analyze the information and characteristics of different trajectories to make informed decisions and navigate safely in dynamic environments. Existing work on the trajectory similarity search task primarily utilizes sequence-processing algorithms or Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which suffer from the inevitable issues of complicated architecture and heavy training costs. Considering the intricate connections between trajectories, using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for data modeling is feasible. However, most methods directly use existing mathematical graph structures as the input instead of constructing specific graphs from certain vehicle trajectory data. This ignores such data's unique and dynamic characteristics. To bridge such a research gap, we propose VeTraSS -- an end-to-end pipeline for Vehicle Trajectory Similarity Search. Specifically, VeTraSS models the original trajectory data into multi-scale graphs, and generates comprehensive embeddings through a novel multi-layer attention-based GNN. The learned embeddings can be used for searching similar vehicle trajectories. Extensive experiments on the Porto and Geolife datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of VeTraSS, where our model outperforms existing work and reaches the state-of-the-art. This demonstrates the potential of VeTraSS for trajectory analysis and safe navigation in self-driving vehicles in the real world.

On Uncertainty Quantification for Near-Bayes Optimal Algorithms

Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian counterpart. In this work we present a promising approach to address this challenge, based on the hypothesis that commonly used ML algorithms are efficient across a wide variety of tasks and may thus be near Bayes-optimal w.r.t. an unknown task distribution. We prove that it is possible to recover the Bayesian posterior defined by the task distribution, which is unknown but optimal in this setting, by building a martingale posterior using the algorithm. We further propose a practical uncertainty quantification method that apply to general ML algorithms. Experiments based on a variety of non-NN and NN algorithms demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

PROC2PDDL: Open-Domain Planning Representations from Texts

Planning in a text-based environment continues to be a major challenge for AI systems. Recent approaches have used language models to predict a planning domain definition (e.g., PDDL) but have only been evaluated in closed-domain simulated environments. To address this, we present Proc2PDDL , the first dataset containing open-domain procedural texts paired with expert-annotated PDDL representations. Using this dataset, we evaluate state-of-the-art models on defining the preconditions and effects of actions. We show that Proc2PDDL is highly challenging, with GPT-3.5's success rate close to 0% and GPT-4's around 35%. Our analysis shows both syntactic and semantic errors, indicating LMs' deficiency in both generating domain-specific prgorams and reasoning about events. We hope this analysis and dataset helps future progress towards integrating the best of LMs and formal planning.