A Large-scale Empirical Study on Large Language Models for Election Prediction

Can Large Language Models (LLMs) accurately predict election outcomes? While LLMs have demonstrated impressive performance in healthcare, legal analysis, and creative applications, their capabilities in election forecasting remain uncertain. Notably, election prediction poses unique challenges: limited voter-level data, evolving political contexts, and the complexity of modeling human behavior. In the first part of this paper, we explore and introduce a multi-step reasoning framework for election prediction, which systematically integrates demographic, ideological, and time-sensitive factors. Validated on 2016 and 2020 real-world data and extensive synthetic personas, our approach adapts to changing political landscapes, reducing bias and significantly improving predictive accuracy. We further apply our pipeline to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, illustrating its ability to generalize beyond observed historical data. Beyond enhancing accuracy, the second part of the paper provides insights into the broader implications of LLM-based election forecasting. We identify potential political biases embedded in pretrained corpora, examine how demographic patterns can become exaggerated, and suggest strategies for mitigating these issues. Together, this project, a large-scale LLM empirical study, advances the accuracy of election predictions and establishes directions for more balanced, transparent, and context-aware modeling in political science research and practice.

MiMoTable: A Multi-scale Spreadsheet Benchmark with Meta Operations for Table Reasoning

Extensive research has been conducted to explore the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) for table reasoning and has significantly improved the performance on existing benchmarks. However, tables and user questions in real-world applications are more complex and diverse, presenting an unignorable gap compared to the existing benchmarks. To fill the gap, we propose a \textbf{M}ult\textbf{i}-scale spreadsheet benchmark with \textbf{M}eta \textbf{o}perations for \textbf{Table} reasoning, named as MiMoTable. Specifically, MiMoTable incorporates two key features. First, the tables in MiMoTable are all spreadsheets used in real-world scenarios, which cover seven domains and contain different types. Second, we define a new criterion with six categories of meta operations for measuring the difficulty of each question in MiMoTable, simultaneously as a new perspective for measuring the difficulty of the existing benchmarks. Experimental results show that Claude-3.5-Sonnet achieves the best performance with 77.4\% accuracy, indicating that there is still significant room to improve for LLMs on MiMoTable. Furthermore, we grade the difficulty of existing benchmarks according to our new criteria. Experiments have shown that the performance of LLMs decreases as the difficulty of benchmarks increases, thereby proving the effectiveness of our proposed new criterion.

ATPrompt: Textual Prompt Learning with Embedded Attributes

Textual-based prompt learning methods primarily employ multiple learnable soft prompts and hard class tokens in a cascading manner as text prompt inputs, aiming to align image and text (category) spaces for downstream tasks. However, current training is restricted to aligning images with predefined known categories and cannot be associated with unknown categories. In this work, we propose utilizing universal attributes as a bridge to enhance the alignment between images and unknown categories. Specifically, we introduce an Attribute-embedded Textual Prompt learning method for vision-language models, named ATPrompt. This approach expands the learning space of soft prompts from the original one-dimensional category level into the multi-dimensional attribute level by incorporating multiple universal attribute tokens into the learnable soft prompts. Through this modification, we transform the text prompt from a category-centric form to an attribute-category hybrid form. To finalize the attributes for downstream tasks, we propose a differentiable attribute search method that learns to identify representative and suitable attributes from a candidate pool summarized by a large language model. As an easy-to-use plug-in technique, ATPrompt can seamlessly replace the existing prompt format of textual-based methods, offering general improvements at a negligible computational cost. Extensive experiments on 11 datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

ArtFormer: Controllable Generation of Diverse 3D Articulated Objects

This paper presents a novel framework for modeling and conditional generation of 3D articulated objects. Troubled by flexibility-quality tradeoffs, existing methods are often limited to using predefined structures or retrieving shapes from static datasets. To address these challenges, we parameterize an articulated object as a tree of tokens and employ a transformer to generate both the object's high-level geometry code and its kinematic relations. Subsequently, each sub-part's geometry is further decoded using a signed-distance-function (SDF) shape prior, facilitating the synthesis of high-quality 3D shapes. Our approach enables the generation of diverse objects with high-quality geometry and varying number of parts. Comprehensive experiments on conditional generation from text descriptions demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our method.

Local Learning for Covariate Selection in Nonparametric Causal Effect Estimation with Latent Variables

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing methods for covariate selection often assume the absence of latent variables and rely on learning the global network structure among variables. However, identifying the global structure can be unnecessary and inefficient, especially when our primary interest lies in estimating the effect of a treatment variable on an outcome variable. To address this limitation, we propose a novel local learning approach for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation, which accounts for the presence of latent variables. Our approach leverages testable independence and dependence relationships among observed variables to identify a valid adjustment set for a target causal relationship, ensuring both soundness and completeness under standard assumptions. We validate the effectiveness of our algorithm through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data.

Testability of Instrumental Variables in Additive Nonlinear, Non-Constant Effects Models

We address the issue of the testability of instrumental variables derived from observational data. Most existing testable implications are centered on scenarios where the treatment is a discrete variable, e.g., instrumental inequality (Pearl, 1995), or where the effect is assumed to be constant, e.g., instrumental variables condition based on the principle of independent mechanisms (Burauel, 2023). However, treatments can often be continuous variables, such as drug dosages or nutritional content levels, and non-constant effects may occur in many real-world scenarios. In this paper, we consider an additive nonlinear, non-constant effects model with unmeasured confounders, in which treatments can be either discrete or continuous, and propose an Auxiliary-based Independence Test (AIT) condition to test whether a variable is a valid instrument. We first show that if the candidate instrument is valid, then the AIT condition holds. Moreover, we illustrate the implications of the AIT condition and demonstrate that, in certain conditions, AIT conditions are necessary and sufficient to detect all invalid IVs. We also extend the AIT condition to include covariates and introduce a practical testing algorithm. Experimental results on both synthetic and three different real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our proposed condition.

Personalized News Recommendation System via LLM Embedding and Co-Occurrence Patterns

In the past two years, large language models (LLMs) have achieved rapid development and demonstrated remarkable emerging capabilities. Concurrently, with powerful semantic understanding and reasoning capabilities, LLMs have significantly empowered the rapid advancement of the recommendation system field. Specifically, in news recommendation (NR), systems must comprehend and process a vast amount of clicked news text to infer the probability of candidate news clicks. This requirement exceeds the capabilities of traditional NR models but aligns well with the strengths of LLMs. In this paper, we propose a novel NR algorithm to reshape the news model via LLM Embedding and Co-Occurrence Pattern (LECOP). On one hand, we fintuned LLM by contrastive learning using large-scale datasets to encode news, which can fully explore the semantic information of news to thoroughly identify user preferences. On the other hand, we explored multiple co-occurrence patterns to mine collaborative information. Those patterns include news ID co-occurrence, Item-Item keywords co-occurrence and Intra-Item keywords co-occurrence. The keywords mentioned above are all generated by LLM. As far as we know, this is the first time that constructing such detailed Co-Occurrence Patterns via LLM to capture collaboration. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed novel method

Shopping MMLU: A Massive Multi-Task Online Shopping Benchmark for Large Language Models

Online shopping is a complex multi-task, few-shot learning problem with a wide and evolving range of entities, relations, and tasks. However, existing models and benchmarks are commonly tailored to specific tasks, falling short of capturing the full complexity of online shopping. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their multi-task and few-shot learning abilities, have the potential to profoundly transform online shopping by alleviating task-specific engineering efforts and by providing users with interactive conversations. Despite the potential, LLMs face unique challenges in online shopping, such as domain-specific concepts, implicit knowledge, and heterogeneous user behaviors. Motivated by the potential and challenges, we propose Shopping MMLU, a diverse multi-task online shopping benchmark derived from real-world Amazon data. Shopping MMLU consists of 57 tasks covering 4 major shopping skills: concept understanding, knowledge reasoning, user behavior alignment, and multi-linguality, and can thus comprehensively evaluate the abilities of LLMs as general shop assistants. With Shopping MMLU, we benchmark over 20 existing LLMs and uncover valuable insights about practices and prospects of building versatile LLM-based shop assistants. Shopping MMLU can be publicly accessed at https://github.com/KL4805/ShoppingMMLU. In addition, with Shopping MMLU, we host a competition in KDD Cup 2024 with over 500 participating teams. The winning solutions and the associated workshop can be accessed at our website https://amazon-kddcup24.github.io/.

Evolutionary Contrastive Distillation for Language Model Alignment

The ability of large language models (LLMs) to execute complex instructions is essential for their real-world applications. However, several recent studies indicate that LLMs struggle with challenging instructions. In this paper, we propose Evolutionary Contrastive Distillation (ECD), a novel method for generating high-quality synthetic preference data designed to enhance the complex instruction-following capability of language models. ECD generates data that specifically illustrates the difference between a response that successfully follows a set of complex instructions and a response that is high-quality, but nevertheless makes some subtle mistakes. This is done by prompting LLMs to progressively evolve simple instructions to more complex instructions. When the complexity of an instruction is increased, the original successful response to the original instruction becomes a "hard negative" response for the new instruction, mostly meeting requirements of the new instruction, but barely missing one or two. By pairing a good response with such a hard negative response, and employing contrastive learning algorithms such as DPO, we improve language models' ability to follow complex instructions. Empirically, we observe that our method yields a 7B model that exceeds the complex instruction-following performance of current SOTA 7B models and is competitive even with open-source 70B models.

RoboNurse-VLA: Robotic Scrub Nurse System based on Vision-Language-Action Model

In modern healthcare, the demand for autonomous robotic assistants has grown significantly, particularly in the operating room, where surgical tasks require precision and reliability. Robotic scrub nurses have emerged as a promising solution to improve efficiency and reduce human error during surgery. However, challenges remain in terms of accurately grasping and handing over surgical instruments, especially when dealing with complex or difficult objects in dynamic environments. In this work, we introduce a novel robotic scrub nurse system, RoboNurse-VLA, built on a Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model by integrating the Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM 2) and the Llama 2 language model. The proposed RoboNurse-VLA system enables highly precise grasping and handover of surgical instruments in real-time based on voice commands from the surgeon. Leveraging state-of-the-art vision and language models, the system can address key challenges for object detection, pose optimization, and the handling of complex and difficult-to-grasp instruments. Through extensive evaluations, RoboNurse-VLA demonstrates superior performance compared to existing models, achieving high success rates in surgical instrument handovers, even with unseen tools and challenging items. This work presents a significant step forward in autonomous surgical assistance, showcasing the potential of integrating VLA models for real-world medical applications. More details can be found at https://robonurse-vla.github.io.