Learning Deep Features in Instrumental Variable Regression

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a standard strategy for learning causal relationships between confounded treatment and outcome variables from observational data by utilizing an instrumental variable, which affects the outcome only through the treatment. In classical IV regression, learning proceeds in two stages: stage 1 performs linear regression from the instrument to the treatment; and stage 2 performs linear regression from the treatment to the outcome, conditioned on the instrument. We propose a novel method, deep feature instrumental variable regression (DFIV), to address the case where relations between instruments, treatments, and outcomes may be nonlinear. In this case, deep neural nets are trained to define informative nonlinear features on the instruments and treatments. We propose an alternating training regime for these features to ensure good end-to-end performance when composing stages 1 and 2, thus obtaining highly flexible feature maps in a computationally efficient manner. DFIV outperforms recent state-of-the-art methods on challenging IV benchmarks, including settings involving high dimensional image data. DFIV also exhibits competitive performance in off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning, which can be understood as an IV regression task.

Sequential Changepoint Detection in Neural Networks with Checkpoints

We introduce a framework for online changepoint detection and simultaneous model learning which is applicable to highly parametrized models, such as deep neural networks. It is based on detecting changepoints across time by sequentially performing generalized likelihood ratio tests that require only evaluations of simple prediction score functions. This procedure makes use of checkpoints, consisting of early versions of the actual model parameters, that allow to detect distributional changes by performing predictions on future data. We define an algorithm that bounds the Type I error in the sequential testing procedure. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method in challenging continual learning applications with unknown task changepoints, and show improved performance compared to online Bayesian changepoint detection.

Modular Meta-Learning with Shrinkage

Most gradient-based approaches to meta-learning do not explicitly account for the fact that different parts of the underlying model adapt by different amounts when applied to a new task. For example, the input layers of an image classification convnet typically adapt very little, while the output layers can change significantly. This can cause parts of the model to begin to overfit while others underfit. To address this, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model with per-module shrinkage parameters, which we propose to learn by maximizing an approximation of the predictive likelihood using implicit differentiation. Our algorithm subsumes Reptile and outperforms variants of MAML on two synthetic few-shot meta-learning problems.

Bayesian Optimization in AlphaGo

During the development of AlphaGo, its many hyper-parameters were tuned with Bayesian optimization multiple times. This automatic tuning process resulted in substantial improvements in playing strength. For example, prior to the match with Lee Sedol, we tuned the latest AlphaGo agent and this improved its win-rate from 50% to 66.5% in self-play games. This tuned version was deployed in the final match. Of course, since we tuned AlphaGo many times during its development cycle, the compounded contribution was even higher than this percentage. It is our hope that this brief case study will be of interest to Go fans, and also provide Bayesian optimization practitioners with some insights and inspiration.

Sample Efficient Adaptive Text-to-Speech

We present a meta-learning approach for adaptive text-to-speech (TTS) with few data. During training, we learn a multi-speaker model using a shared conditional WaveNet core and independent learned embeddings for each speaker. The aim of training is not to produce a neural network with fixed weights, which is then deployed as a TTS system. Instead, the aim is to produce a network that requires few data at deployment time to rapidly adapt to new speakers. We introduce and benchmark three strategies: (i) learning the speaker embedding while keeping the WaveNet core fixed, (ii) fine-tuning the entire architecture with stochastic gradient descent, and (iii) predicting the speaker embedding with a trained neural network encoder. The experiments show that these approaches are successful at adapting the multi-speaker neural network to new speakers, obtaining state-of-the-art results in both sample naturalness and voice similarity with merely a few minutes of audio data from new speakers.

Few-shot Autoregressive Density Estimation: Towards Learning to Learn Distributions

Deep autoregressive models have shown state-of-the-art performance in density estimation for natural images on large-scale datasets such as ImageNet. However, such models require many thousands of gradient-based weight updates and unique image examples for training. Ideally, the models would rapidly learn visual concepts from only a handful of examples, similar to the manner in which humans learns across many vision tasks. In this paper, we show how 1) neural attention and 2) meta learning techniques can be used in combination with autoregressive models to enable effective few-shot density estimation. Our proposed modifications to PixelCNN result in state-of-the art few-shot density estimation on the Omniglot dataset. Furthermore, we visualize the learned attention policy and find that it learns intuitive algorithms for simple tasks such as image mirroring on ImageNet and handwriting on Omniglot without supervision. Finally, we extend the model to natural images and demonstrate few-shot image generation on the Stanford Online Products dataset.

Learning to Learn without Gradient Descent by Gradient Descent

We learn recurrent neural network optimizers trained on simple synthetic functions by gradient descent. We show that these learned optimizers exhibit a remarkable degree of transfer in that they can be used to efficiently optimize a broad range of derivative-free black-box functions, including Gaussian process bandits, simple control objectives, global optimization benchmarks and hyper-parameter tuning tasks. Up to the training horizon, the learned optimizers learn to trade-off exploration and exploitation, and compare favourably with heavily engineered Bayesian optimization packages for hyper-parameter tuning.

Scalable Discrete Sampling as a Multi-Armed Bandit Problem

Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We study the problem of sampling a discrete random variable with a high degree of dependency that is typical in large-scale Bayesian inference and graphical models, and propose an efficient approximate solution with a subsampling approach. We make a novel connection between the discrete sampling and Multi-Armed Bandits problems with a finite reward population and provide three algorithms with theoretical guarantees. Empirical evaluations show the robustness and efficiency of the approximate algorithms in both synthetic and real-world large-scale problems.