Health System Scale Semantic Search Across Unstructured Clinical Notes

Introduction: Semantic search, which retrieves documents based on conceptual similarity rather than keyword matching, offers substantial advantages for retrieval of clinical information. However, deploying semantic search across entire health systems, comprising hundreds of millions of clinical notes, presents formidable engineering, cost, and governance challenges that have prevented adoption. Methods: We deployed a semantic search system at a large children's hospital indexing 166 million clinical notes (484 million vectors) from 1.68 million patients. The system uses instruction-tuned qwen3-embedding-0.6B embeddings, stores vectors in a managed database with storage-optimized indexing, maintains full-text metadata in a low-latency key-value store, and operates within a HIPAA-compliant governance framework. We evaluated the system through three experiments: optimization of embedding model and chunking strategy using a physician-authored benchmark dataset, characterization of full-scale performance (cost, latency, retrieval quality), and clinical utility assessment via comparison of chart abstraction efficiency across three tasks. Results: The system delivers sub-second query latency (median 237 ms single-user, 451 ms 20-user concurrency) with monthly costs of approximately USD 4,000. Qwen3 embeddings with 300-token chunk size achieved 94.6% accuracy on a clinical question-answering benchmark. In clinical utility evaluation across three abstraction tasks, semantic search reduced time-to-completion by 24 to 89% compared to clinician-performed chart review while maintaining comparable inter-rater agreement. Conclusion: Health-system-scale semantic search is both technically and operationally feasible. The system provides infrastructure supporting interactive search, cohort generation, and downstream LLM-powered clinical applications without requiring specialized informatics expertise.

Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs

We present BLF (Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) A linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running $K$ independent trials and combining them using logit-space shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 backtesting questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Ablation studies show that the structured belief state is almost as impactful as web search access, and that shrinkage aggregation and hierarchical calibration each provide significant additional gains. In addition, we develop a robust back-testing framework with a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and use rigorous statistical methodology to compare different methods while controlling for various sources of noise.

World Action Verifier: Self-Improving World Models via Forward-Inverse Asymmetry

General-purpose world models promise scalable policy evaluation, optimization, and planning, yet achieving the required level of robustness remains challenging. Unlike policy learning, which primarily focuses on optimal actions, a world model must be reliable over a much broader range of suboptimal actions, which are often insufficiently covered by action-labeled interaction data. To address this challenge, we propose World Action Verifier (WAV), a framework that enables world models to identify their own prediction errors and self-improve. The key idea is to decompose action-conditioned state prediction into two factors -- state plausibility and action reachability -- and verify each separately. We show that these verification problems can be substantially easier than predicting future states due to two underlying asymmetries: the broader availability of action-free data and the lower dimensionality of action-relevant features. Leveraging these asymmetries, we augment a world model with (i) a diverse subgoal generator obtained from video corpora and (ii) a sparse inverse model that infers actions from a subset of state features. By enforcing cycle consistency among generated subgoals, inferred actions, and forward rollouts, WAV provides an effective verification mechanism in under-explored regimes, where existing methods typically fail. Across nine tasks spanning MiniGrid, RoboMimic, and ManiSkill, our method achieves 2x higher sample efficiency while improving downstream policy performance by 18%.

Joint Learning of Hierarchical Neural Options and Abstract World Model

Building agents that can perform new skills by composing existing skills is a long-standing goal of AI agent research. Towards this end, we investigate how to efficiently acquire a sequence of skills, formalized as hierarchical neural options. However, existing model-free hierarchical reinforcement algorithms need a lot of data. We propose a novel method, which we call AgentOWL (Option and World model Learning Agent), that jointly learns -- in a sample efficient way -- an abstract world model (abstracting across both states and time) and a set of hierarchical neural options. We show, on a subset of Object-Centric Atari games, that our method can learn more skills using much less data than baseline methods.

Scalable Generalized Bayesian Online Neural Network Training for Sequential Decision Making

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning and generalized Bayesian inference of neural network parameters, designed for sequential decision making tasks. Our methods combine the strengths of frequentist and Bayesian filtering, which include fast low-rank updates via a block-diagonal approximation of the parameter error covariance, and a well-defined posterior predictive distribution that we use for decision making. More precisely, our main method updates a low-rank error covariance for the hidden layers parameters, and a full-rank error covariance for the final layer parameters. Although this characterizes an improper posterior, we show that the resulting posterior predictive distribution is well-defined. Our methods update all network parameters online, with no need for replay buffers or offline retraining. We show, empirically, that our methods achieve a competitive tradeoff between speed and accuracy on (non-stationary) contextual bandit problems and Bayesian optimization problems.

Direct Motion Models for Assessing Generated Videos

A current limitation of video generative video models is that they generate plausible looking frames, but poor motion -- an issue that is not well captured by FVD and other popular methods for evaluating generated videos. Here we go beyond FVD by developing a metric which better measures plausible object interactions and motion. Our novel approach is based on auto-encoding point tracks and yields motion features that can be used to not only compare distributions of videos (as few as one generated and one ground truth, or as many as two datasets), but also for evaluating motion of single videos. We show that using point tracks instead of pixel reconstruction or action recognition features results in a metric which is markedly more sensitive to temporal distortions in synthetic data, and can predict human evaluations of temporal consistency and realism in generated videos obtained from open-source models better than a wide range of alternatives. We also show that by using a point track representation, we can spatiotemporally localize generative video inconsistencies, providing extra interpretability of generated video errors relative to prior work. An overview of the results and link to the code can be found on the project page: http://trajan-paper.github.io.

Distributional Diffusion Models with Scoring Rules

Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively "denoises" a Gaussian sample into a sample from the data distribution. However, generating high-quality outputs requires many discretization steps to obtain a faithful approximation of the reverse process. This is expensive and has motivated the development of many acceleration methods. We propose to accomplish sample generation by learning the posterior {\em distribution} of clean data samples given their noisy versions, instead of only the mean of this distribution. This allows us to sample from the probability transitions of the reverse process on a coarse time scale, significantly accelerating inference with minimal degradation of the quality of the output. This is accomplished by replacing the standard regression loss used to estimate conditional means with a scoring rule. We validate our method on image and robot trajectory generation, where we consistently outperform standard diffusion models at few discretization steps.

Reinforcement Learning: An Overview

This manuscript gives a big-picture, up-to-date overview of the field of (deep) reinforcement learning and sequential decision making, covering value-based RL, policy-gradient methods, model-based methods, and various other topics (including a very brief discussion of RL+LLMs).

Towards a Mechanistic Explanation of Diffusion Model Generalization

We propose a mechanism for diffusion generalization based on local denoising operations. Through analysis of network and empirical denoisers, we identify local inductive biases in diffusion models. We demonstrate that local denoising operations can be used to approximate the optimal diffusion denoiser. Using a collection of patch-based, local empirical denoisers, we construct a denoiser which approximates the generalization behaviour of diffusion model denoisers over forward and reverse diffusion processes.

BONE: a unifying framework for Bayesian online learning in non-stationary environments

We propose a unifying framework for methods that perform Bayesian online learning in non-stationary environments. We call the framework BONE, which stands for (B)ayesian (O)nline learning in (N)on-stationary (E)nvironments. BONE provides a common structure to tackle a variety of problems, including online continual learning, prequential forecasting, and contextual bandits. The framework requires specifying three modelling choices: (i) a model for measurements (e.g., a neural network), (ii) an auxiliary process to model non-stationarity (e.g., the time since the last changepoint), and (iii) a conditional prior over model parameters (e.g., a multivariate Gaussian). The framework also requires two algorithmic choices, which we use to carry out approximate inference under this framework: (i) an algorithm to estimate beliefs (posterior distribution) about the model parameters given the auxiliary variable, and (ii) an algorithm to estimate beliefs about the auxiliary variable. We show how this modularity allows us to write many different existing methods as instances of BONE; we also use this framework to propose a new method. We then experimentally compare existing methods with our proposed new method on several datasets; we provide insights into the situations that make one method more suitable than another for a given task.