Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis]

Prediction markets are markets for trading claims on future events, such as presidential elections, and their prices provide continuously updated signals of collective beliefs. In decentralized platforms such as Polymarket, the market lifecycle spans market creation, token registration, trading, oracle interaction, dispute, and final settlement, yet the corresponding data are fragmented across heterogeneous off-chain and on-chain sources. We present the first continuously maintained dataset suite for the full lifecycle of decentralized prediction markets, built on Polymarket. To address the challenges of large-scale cross-source integration, incomplete linkage, and continuous synchronization, we build a unified relational data system that integrates three canonical layers: market metadata, fill-level trading records, and oracle-resolution events, through identifier resolution, on-chain recovery, and incremental updates. The resulting dataset spans October 2020 to March 2026 and comprises more than 770 thousand market records, over 943 million fill records, and nearly 2 million oracle events. We describe the data model, collection pipeline, and consistency mechanisms that make the dataset reproducible and extensible, and we demonstrate its utility through descriptive analyses of market activity and two downstream case studies: NBA outcome calibration and CPI expectation reconstruction.

Towards Event-Aware Forecasting in DeFi: Insights from On-chain Automated Market Maker Protocols

Automated Market Makers (AMMs), as a core infrastructure of decentralized finance (DeFi), uniquely drive on-chain asset pricing through a deterministic reserve ratio mechanism. Unlike traditional markets, AMM price dynamics is triggered largely by on-chain events (e.g., swap) that change the reserve ratio, rather than by continuous responses to off-chain information. This makes event-level analysis crucial for understanding price formation mechanisms in AMMs. However, existing research generally neglects the micro-structural dynamics at the AMMs level, lacking both a comprehensive dataset covering multiple protocols with fine-grained event classification and an effective framework for event-aware modeling. To fill this gap, we construct a dataset containing 8.9 million on-chain event records from four representative AMMs protocols: Pendle, Uniswap v3, Aave and Morpho, with precise annotations of transaction type and block height timestamps. Furthermore, we propose an Uncertainty Weighted Mean Squared Error (UWM) loss function, which incorporates the block interval regression term into the traditional Time-Point Process (TPP) objective function by weighting the uncertainty with homoscedasticity. Extensive experiments on eight advanced TPP architectures demonstrate that this loss function reduces the time prediction error by an average of 56.41\% while maintaining the accuracy of event type prediction, establishing a robust benchmark for event-aware prediction in the AMMs ecosystem. This work provides the necessary data foundation and methodological framework for modeling the discreteness and event-driven characteristics of on-chain price discovery. All datasets and source code are publicly available. https://github.com/yosen-king/Deep-AMM-Events

RMGS-SLAM: Real-time Multi-sensor Gaussian Splatting SLAM

Real-time 3D Gaussian splatting (3DGS)-based Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) in large-scale real-world environments remains challenging, as existing methods often struggle to jointly achieve low-latency pose estimation, 3D Gaussian reconstruction in step with incoming sensor streams, and long-term global consistency. In this paper, we present a tightly coupled LiDAR-Inertial-Visual (LIV) 3DGS-based SLAM framework for real-time pose estimation and photorealistic mapping in large-scale real-world scenes. The system executes state estimation and 3D Gaussian primitive initialization in parallel with global Gaussian optimization, thereby enabling continuous dense mapping. To improve Gaussian initialization quality and accelerate optimization convergence, we introduce a cascaded strategy that combines feed-forward predictions with voxel-based principal component analysis (voxel-PCA) geometric priors. To enhance global consistency in large scenes, we further perform loop closure directly on the optimized global Gaussian map by estimating loop constraints through Gaussian-based Generalized Iterative Closest Point (GICP) registration, followed by pose-graph optimization. In addition, we collected challenging large-scale looped outdoor SLAM sequences with hardware-synchronized LiDAR-camera-IMU and ground-truth trajectories to support realistic and comprehensive evaluation. Extensive experiments on both public datasets and our dataset demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a strong balance among real-time efficiency, localization accuracy, and rendering quality across diverse and challenging real-world scenes.

Where can AI be used? Insights from a deep ontology of work activities

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to profoundly reshape how work is executed and organized, but we do not yet have deep frameworks for understanding where AI can be used. Here we provide a comprehensive ontology of work activities that can help systematically analyze and predict uses of AI. To do this, we disaggregate and then substantially reorganize the approximately 20K activities in the US Department of Labor's widely used O*NET occupational database. Next, we use this framework to classify descriptions of 13,275 AI software applications and a worldwide tally of 20.8 million robotic systems. Finally, we use the data about both these kinds of AI to generate graphical displays of how the estimated units and market values of all worldwide AI systems used today are distributed across the work activities that these systems help perform. We find a highly uneven distribution of AI market value across activities, with the top 1.6% of activities accounting for over 60% of AI market value. Most of the market value is used in information-based activities (72%), especially creating information (36%), and only 12% is used in physical activities. Interactive activities include both information-based and physical activities and account for 48% of AI market value, much of which (26%) involves transferring information. These results can be viewed as rough predictions of the AI applicability for all the different work activities down to very low levels of detail. Thus, we believe this systematic framework can help predict at a detailed level where today's AI systems can and cannot be used and how future AI capabilities may change this.

SEAR: Simple and Efficient Adaptation of Visual Geometric Transformers for RGB+Thermal 3D Reconstruction

Foundational feed-forward visual geometry models enable accurate and efficient camera pose estimation and scene reconstruction by learning strong scene priors from massive RGB datasets. However, their effectiveness drops when applied to mixed sensing modalities, such as RGB-thermal (RGB-T) images. We observe that while a visual geometry grounded transformer pretrained on RGB data generalizes well to thermal-only reconstruction, it struggles to align RGB and thermal modalities when processed jointly. To address this, we propose SEAR, a simple yet efficient fine-tuning strategy that adapts a pretrained geometry transformer to multimodal RGB-T inputs. Despite being trained on a relatively small RGB-T dataset, our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods for 3D reconstruction and camera pose estimation, achieving significant improvements over all metrics (e.g., over 29\% in AUC@30) and delivering higher detail and consistency between modalities with negligible overhead in inference time compared to the original pretrained model. Notably, SEAR enables reliable multimodal pose estimation and reconstruction even under challenging conditions, such as low lighting and dense smoke. We validate our architecture through extensive ablation studies, demonstrating how the model aligns both modalities. Additionally, we introduce a new dataset featuring RGB and thermal sequences captured at different times, viewpoints, and illumination conditions, providing a robust benchmark for future work in multimodal 3D scene reconstruction. Code and models are publicly available at https://www.github.com/Schindler-EPFL-Lab/SEAR.

Dense Dynamic Scene Reconstruction and Camera Pose Estimation from Multi-View Videos

We address the challenging problem of dense dynamic scene reconstruction and camera pose estimation from multiple freely moving cameras -- a setting that arises naturally when multiple observers capture a shared event. Prior approaches either handle only single-camera input or require rigidly mounted, pre-calibrated camera rigs, limiting their practical applicability. We propose a two-stage optimization framework that decouples the task into robust camera tracking and dense depth refinement. In the first stage, we extend single-camera visual SLAM to the multi-camera setting by constructing a spatiotemporal connection graph that exploits both intra-camera temporal continuity and inter-camera spatial overlap, enabling consistent scale and robust tracking. To ensure robustness under limited overlap, we introduce a wide-baseline initialization strategy using feed-forward reconstruction models. In the second stage, we refine depth and camera poses by optimizing dense inter- and intra-camera consistency using wide-baseline optical flow. Additionally, we introduce MultiCamRobolab, a new real-world dataset with ground-truth poses from a motion capture system. Finally, we demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art feed-forward models on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks, while requiring less memory.

Unlocking Cognitive Capabilities and Analyzing the Perception-Logic Trade-off

Recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) pursue omni-perception capabilities, yet integrating robust sensory grounding with complex reasoning remains a challenge, particularly for underrepresented regions. In this report, we introduce the research preview of MERaLiON2-Omni (Alpha), a 10B-parameter multilingual omni-perception tailored for Southeast Asia (SEA). We present a progressive training pipeline that explicitly decouples and then integrates "System 1" (Perception) and "System 2" (Reasoning) capabilities. First, we establish a robust Perception Backbone by aligning region-specific audio-visual cues (e.g., Singlish code-switching, local cultural landmarks) with a multilingual LLM through orthogonal modality adaptation. Second, to inject cognitive capabilities without large-scale supervision, we propose a cost-effective Generate-Judge-Refine pipeline. By utilizing a Super-LLM to filter hallucinations and resolve conflicts via a consensus mechanism, we synthesize high-quality silver data that transfers textual Chain-of-Thought reasoning to multimodal scenarios. Comprehensive evaluation on our newly introduced SEA-Omni Benchmark Suite reveals an Efficiency-Stability Paradox: while reasoning acts as a non-linear amplifier for abstract tasks (boosting mathematical and instruction-following performance significantly), it introduces instability in low-level sensory processing. Specifically, we identify Temporal Drift in long-context audio, where extended reasoning desynchronizes the model from acoustic timestamps, and Visual Over-interpretation, where logic overrides pixel-level reality. This report details the architecture, the data-efficient training recipe, and a diagnostic analysis of the trade-offs between robust perception and structured reasoning.

FineFT: Efficient and Risk-Aware Ensemble Reinforcement Learning for Futures Trading

Futures are contracts obligating the exchange of an asset at a predetermined date and price, notable for their high leverage and liquidity and, therefore, thrive in the Crypto market. RL has been widely applied in various quantitative tasks. However, most methods focus on the spot and could not be directly applied to the futures market with high leverage because of 2 challenges. First, high leverage amplifies reward fluctuations, making training stochastic and difficult to converge. Second, prior works lacked self-awareness of capability boundaries, exposing them to the risk of significant loss when encountering new market state (e.g.,a black swan event like COVID-19). To tackle these challenges, we propose the Efficient and Risk-Aware Ensemble Reinforcement Learning for Futures Trading (FineFT), a novel three-stage ensemble RL framework with stable training and proper risk management. In stage I, ensemble Q learners are selectively updated by ensemble TD errors to improve convergence. In stage II, we filter the Q-learners based on their profitabilities and train VAEs on market states to identify the capability boundaries of the learners. In stage III, we choose from the filtered ensemble and a conservative policy, guided by trained VAEs, to maintain profitability and mitigate risk with new market states. Through extensive experiments on crypto futures in a high-frequency trading environment with high fidelity and 5x leverage, we demonstrate that FineFT outperforms 12 SOTA baselines in 6 financial metrics, reducing risk by more than 40% while achieving superior profitability compared to the runner-up. Visualization of the selective update mechanism shows that different agents specialize in distinct market dynamics, and ablation studies certify routing with VAEs reduces maximum drawdown effectively, and selective update improves convergence and performance.

Generalization of RLVR Using Causal Reasoning as a Testbed

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks. Yet, the conditions under which RLVR yields robust generalization remain poorly understood. This paper provides an empirical study of RLVR generalization in the setting of probabilistic inference over causal graphical models. This setting offers two natural axes along which to examine generalization: (i) the level of the probabilistic query -- associational, interventional, or counterfactual -- and (ii) the structural complexity of the query, measured by the size of its relevant subgraph. We construct datasets of causal graphs and queries spanning these difficulty axes and fine-tune Qwen-2.5-Instruct models using RLVR or supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We vary both the model scale (3B-32B) and the query level included in training. We find that RLVR yields stronger within-level and across-level generalization than SFT, but only for specific combinations of model size and training query level. Further analysis shows that RLVR's effectiveness depends on the model's initial reasoning competence. With sufficient initial competence, RLVR improves an LLM's marginalization strategy and reduces errors in intermediate probability calculations, producing substantial accuracy gains, particularly on more complex queries. These findings show that RLVR can improve specific causal reasoning subskills, with its benefits emerging only when the model has sufficient initial competence.

Group-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning of Dynamical Decoupling Sequences

Dynamical decoupling seeks to mitigate phase decoherence in qubits by applying a carefully designed sequence of effectively instantaneous electromagnetic pulses. Although analytic solutions exist for pulse timings that are optimal under specific noise regimes, identifying the optimal timings for a realistic noise spectrum remains challenging. We propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based method for designing pulse sequences on qubits. Our novel action set enables the RL agent to efficiently navigate this inherently non-convex optimization landscape. The action set, derived from Thompson's group $F$, is applicable to a broad class of sequential decision problems whose states can be represented as bounded sequences. We demonstrate that our RL agent can learn pulse sequences that minimize dephasing without requiring explicit knowledge of the underlying noise spectrum. This work opens the possibility for real-time learning of optimal dynamical decoupling sequences on qubits which are dephasing-limited. The model-free nature of our algorithm suggests that the agent may ultimately learn optimal pulse sequences even in the presence of unmodeled physical effects, such as pulse errors or non-Gaussian noise.