One Fits All: Universal Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM and Specially Designed Adaptors

Despite the impressive achievements of pre-trained models in the fields of natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), progress in the domain of time series analysis has been limited. In contrast to NLP and CV, where a single model can handle various tasks, time series analysis still relies heavily on task-specific methods for activities such as classification, anomaly detection, forecasting, and few-shot learning. The primary obstacle to developing a pre-trained model for time series analysis is the scarcity of sufficient training data. In our research, we overcome this obstacle by utilizing pre-trained models from language or CV, which have been trained on billions of data points, and apply them to time series analysis. We assess the effectiveness of the pre-trained transformer model in two ways. Initially, we maintain the original structure of the self-attention and feedforward layers in the residual blocks of the pre-trained language or image model, using the Frozen Pre-trained Transformer (FPT) for time series analysis with the addition of projection matrices for input and output. Additionally, we introduce four unique adapters, designed specifically for downstream tasks based on the pre-trained model, including forecasting and anomaly detection. These adapters are further enhanced with efficient parameter tuning, resulting in superior performance compared to all state-of-the-art methods.Our comprehensive experimental studies reveal that (a) the simple FPT achieves top-tier performance across various time series analysis tasks; and (b) fine-tuning the FPT with the custom-designed adapters can further elevate its performance, outshining specialized task-specific models.

OneNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting Models under Concept Drift by Online Ensembling

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose \textbf{On}line \textbf{e}nsembling \textbf{Net}work (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than $\mathbf{50\%}$ compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet}.

Make Transformer Great Again for Time Series Forecasting: Channel Aligned Robust Dual Transformer

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of deep learning methods, particularly Transformer and MLP, for time series forecasting. Despite its success in NLP and CV, many studies found that Transformer is less effective than MLP for time series forecasting. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., channel-aligned robust dual Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a dual Transformer structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods, including both Transformer and MLP-based models.

AdaNPC: Exploring Non-Parametric Classifier for Test-Time Adaptation

Many recent machine learning tasks focus to develop models that can generalize to unseen distributions. Domain generalization (DG) has become one of the key topics in various fields. Several literatures show that DG can be arbitrarily hard without exploiting target domain information. To address this issue, test-time adaptive (TTA) methods are proposed. Existing TTA methods require offline target data or extra sophisticated optimization procedures during the inference stage. In this work, we adopt Non-Parametric Classifier to perform the test-time Adaptation (AdaNPC). In particular, we construct a memory that contains the feature and label pairs from training domains. During inference, given a test instance, AdaNPC first recalls K closed samples from the memory to vote for the prediction, and then the test feature and predicted label are added to the memory. In this way, the sample distribution in the memory can be gradually changed from the training distribution towards the test distribution with very little extra computation cost. We theoretically justify the rationality behind the proposed method. Besides, we test our model on extensive numerical experiments. AdaNPC significantly outperforms competitive baselines on various DG benchmarks. In particular, when the adaptation target is a series of domains, the adaptation accuracy of AdaNPC is 50% higher than advanced TTA methods. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/AdaNPC.

Beyond Appearance: a Semantic Controllable Self-Supervised Learning Framework for Human-Centric Visual Tasks

Human-centric visual tasks have attracted increasing research attention due to their widespread applications. In this paper, we aim to learn a general human representation from massive unlabeled human images which can benefit downstream human-centric tasks to the maximum extent. We call this method SOLIDER, a Semantic cOntrollable seLf-supervIseD lEaRning framework. Unlike the existing self-supervised learning methods, prior knowledge from human images is utilized in SOLIDER to build pseudo semantic labels and import more semantic information into the learned representation. Meanwhile, we note that different downstream tasks always require different ratios of semantic information and appearance information. For example, human parsing requires more semantic information, while person re-identification needs more appearance information for identification purpose. So a single learned representation cannot fit for all requirements. To solve this problem, SOLIDER introduces a conditional network with a semantic controller. After the model is trained, users can send values to the controller to produce representations with different ratios of semantic information, which can fit different needs of downstream tasks. Finally, SOLIDER is verified on six downstream human-centric visual tasks. It outperforms state of the arts and builds new baselines for these tasks. The code is released in https://github.com/tinyvision/SOLIDER.

Making Vision Transformers Efficient from A Token Sparsification View

The quadratic computational complexity to the number of tokens limits the practical applications of Vision Transformers (ViTs). Several works propose to prune redundant tokens to achieve efficient ViTs. However, these methods generally suffer from (i) dramatic accuracy drops, (ii) application difficulty in the local vision transformer, and (iii) non-general-purpose networks for downstream tasks. In this work, we propose a novel Semantic Token ViT (STViT), for efficient global and local vision transformers, which can also be revised to serve as backbone for downstream tasks. The semantic tokens represent cluster centers, and they are initialized by pooling image tokens in space and recovered by attention, which can adaptively represent global or local semantic information. Due to the cluster properties, a few semantic tokens can attain the same effect as vast image tokens, for both global and local vision transformers. For instance, only 16 semantic tokens on DeiT-(Tiny,Small,Base) can achieve the same accuracy with more than 100% inference speed improvement and nearly 60% FLOPs reduction; on Swin-(Tiny,Small,Base), we can employ 16 semantic tokens in each window to further speed it up by around 20% with slight accuracy increase. Besides great success in image classification, we also extend our method to video recognition. In addition, we design a STViT-R(ecover) network to restore the detailed spatial information based on the STViT, making it work for downstream tasks, which is powerless for previous token sparsification methods. Experiments demonstrate that our method can achieve competitive results compared to the original networks in object detection and instance segmentation, with over 30% FLOPs reduction for backbone. Code is available at http://github.com/changsn/STViT-R

Power Time Series Forecasting by Pretrained LM

The diversity and domain dependence of time series data pose significant challenges in transferring learning to time series forecasting. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of using a transformer model that has been pre-trained on natural language or image data and then fine-tuned for time series forecasting with minimal modifications, specifically, without altering the self-attention and feedforward layers of the residual blocks. This model, known as the Frozen Pretrained Transformer (FPT), is evaluated through fine-tuning on time series forecasting tasks under Zero-Shot, Few-Shot, and normal sample size conditions. Our results demonstrate that pre-training on natural language or images can lead to a comparable or state-of-the-art performance in cross-modality time series forecasting tasks, in contrast to previous studies that focused on fine-tuning within the same modality as the pre-training data. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the universality and the functionality of the FPT. The code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Pretrained-LM-for-TSForcasting-C561.

Free Lunch for Domain Adversarial Training: Environment Label Smoothing

A fundamental challenge for machine learning models is how to generalize learned models for out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Among various approaches, exploiting invariant features by Domain Adversarial Training (DAT) received widespread attention. Despite its success, we observe training instability from DAT, mostly due to over-confident domain discriminator and environment label noise. To address this issue, we proposed Environment Label Smoothing (ELS), which encourages the discriminator to output soft probability, which thus reduces the confidence of the discriminator and alleviates the impact of noisy environment labels. We demonstrate, both experimentally and theoretically, that ELS can improve training stability, local convergence, and robustness to noisy environment labels. By incorporating ELS with DAT methods, we are able to yield state-of-art results on a wide range of domain generalization/adaptation tasks, particularly when the environment labels are highly noisy.