A Survey on Evaluation of Out-of-Distribution Generalization

Machine learning models, while progressively advanced, rely heavily on the IID assumption, which is often unfulfilled in practice due to inevitable distribution shifts. This renders them susceptible and untrustworthy for deployment in risk-sensitive applications. Such a significant problem has consequently spawned various branches of works dedicated to developing algorithms capable of Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization. Despite these efforts, much less attention has been paid to the evaluation of OOD generalization, which is also a complex and fundamental problem. Its goal is not only to assess whether a model's OOD generalization capability is strong or not, but also to evaluate where a model generalizes well or poorly. This entails characterizing the types of distribution shifts that a model can effectively address, and identifying the safe and risky input regions given a model. This paper serves as the first effort to conduct a comprehensive review of OOD evaluation. We categorize existing research into three paradigms: OOD performance testing, OOD performance prediction, and OOD intrinsic property characterization, according to the availability of test data. Additionally, we briefly discuss OOD evaluation in the context of pretrained models. In closing, we propose several promising directions for future research in OOD evaluation.

Emergence and Causality in Complex Systems: A Survey on Causal Emergence and Related Quantitative Studies

Emergence and causality are two fundamental concepts for understanding complex systems. They are interconnected. On one hand, emergence refers to the phenomenon where macroscopic properties cannot be solely attributed to the cause of individual properties. On the other hand, causality can exhibit emergence, meaning that new causal laws may arise as we increase the level of abstraction. Causal emergence theory aims to bridge these two concepts and even employs measures of causality to quantify emergence. This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent advancements in quantitative theories and applications of causal emergence. Two key problems are addressed: quantifying causal emergence and identifying it in data. Addressing the latter requires the use of machine learning techniques, thus establishing a connection between causal emergence and artificial intelligence. We highlighted that the architectures used for identifying causal emergence are shared by causal representation learning, causal model abstraction, and world model-based reinforcement learning. Consequently, progress in any of these areas can benefit the others. Potential applications and future perspectives are also discussed in the final section of the review.

Geometry-Calibrated DRO: Combating Over-Pessimism with Free Energy Implications

Machine learning algorithms minimizing average risk are susceptible to distributional shifts. Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) addresses this issue by optimizing the worst-case risk within an uncertainty set. However, DRO suffers from over-pessimism, leading to low-confidence predictions, poor parameter estimations as well as poor generalization. In this work, we conduct a theoretical analysis of a probable root cause of over-pessimism: excessive focus on noisy samples. To alleviate the impact of noise, we incorporate data geometry into calibration terms in DRO, resulting in our novel Geometry-Calibrated DRO (GCDRO) for regression. We establish the connection between our risk objective and the Helmholtz free energy in statistical physics, and this free-energy-based risk can extend to standard DRO methods. Leveraging gradient flow in Wasserstein space, we develop an approximate minimax optimization algorithm with a bounded error ratio and elucidate how our approach mitigates noisy sample effects. Comprehensive experiments confirm GCDRO's superiority over conventional DRO methods.

Transforming Graphs for Enhanced Attribute-Based Clustering: An Innovative Graph Transformer Method

Graph Representation Learning (GRL) is an influential methodology, enabling a more profound understanding of graph-structured data and aiding graph clustering, a critical task across various domains. The recent incursion of attention mechanisms, originally an artifact of Natural Language Processing (NLP), into the realm of graph learning has spearheaded a notable shift in research trends. Consequently, Graph Attention Networks (GATs) and Graph Attention Auto-Encoders have emerged as preferred tools for graph clustering tasks. Yet, these methods primarily employ a local attention mechanism, thereby curbing their capacity to apprehend the intricate global dependencies between nodes within graphs. Addressing these impediments, this study introduces an innovative method known as the Graph Transformer Auto-Encoder for Graph Clustering (GTAGC). By melding the Graph Auto-Encoder with the Graph Transformer, GTAGC is adept at capturing global dependencies between nodes. This integration amplifies the graph representation and surmounts the constraints posed by the local attention mechanism. The architecture of GTAGC encompasses graph embedding, integration of the Graph Transformer within the autoencoder structure, and a clustering component. It strategically alternates between graph embedding and clustering, thereby tailoring the Graph Transformer for clustering tasks, whilst preserving the graph's global structural information. Through extensive experimentation on diverse benchmark datasets, GTAGC has exhibited superior performance against existing state-of-the-art graph clustering methodologies. This pioneering approach represents a novel contribution to the field of graph clustering, paving the way for promising avenues in future research.

Predictive Heterogeneity: Measures and Applications

As an intrinsic and fundamental property of big data, data heterogeneity exists in a variety of real-world applications, such as precision medicine, autonomous driving, financial applications, etc. For machine learning algorithms, the ignorance of data heterogeneity will greatly hurt the generalization performance and the algorithmic fairness, since the prediction mechanisms among different sub-populations are likely to differ from each other. In this work, we focus on the data heterogeneity that affects the prediction of machine learning models, and firstly propose the \emph{usable predictive heterogeneity}, which takes into account the model capacity and computational constraints. We prove that it can be reliably estimated from finite data with probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds. Additionally, we design a bi-level optimization algorithm to explore the usable predictive heterogeneity from data. Empirically, the explored heterogeneity provides insights for sub-population divisions in income prediction, crop yield prediction and image classification tasks, and leveraging such heterogeneity benefits the out-of-distribution generalization performance.

Significant Ties Graph Neural Networks for Continuous-Time Temporal Networks Modeling

Temporal networks are suitable for modeling complex evolving systems. It has a wide range of applications, such as social network analysis, recommender systems, and epidemiology. Recently, modeling such dynamic systems has drawn great attention in many domains. However, most existing approaches resort to taking discrete snapshots of the temporal networks and modeling all events with equal importance. This paper proposes Significant Ties Graph Neural Networks (STGNN), a novel framework that captures and describes significant ties. To better model the diversity of interactions, STGNN introduces a novel aggregation mechanism to organize the most significant historical neighbors' information and adaptively obtain the significance of node pairs. Experimental results on four real networks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Distributionally Invariant Learning: Rationalization and Practical Algorithms

The invariance property across environments is at the heart of invariant learning methods for the Out-of-Distribution (OOD) Generalization problem. Although intuitively reasonable, strong assumptions on the availability and quality of environments have to be made for the learnability of the strict invariance property. Recently, to relax the requirements for environments empirically, some works propose to learn pseudo-environments for invariant learning. However, it could be misleading when pursuing strict invariance under latent heterogeneity, since the underlying invariance could have been violated during the pseudo-environment learning procedure. To this end, we come up with the distributional invariance property as a relaxed alternative to the strict invariance, which considers the invariance only among sub-populations down to a prescribed scale and allows a certain degree of variation. We reformulate the invariant learning problem under latent heterogeneity into a relaxed form that pursues the distributional invariance, based on which we propose our novel Distributionally Invariant Learning (DIL) framework as well as two implementations named DIL-MMD and DIL-KL. Theoretically, we provide the guarantees for the distributional invariance as well as bounds of the generalization error gap. Extensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.