On the Need for a Language Describing Distribution Shifts: Illustrations on Tabular Datasets

Different distribution shifts require different algorithmic and operational interventions. Methodological research must be grounded by the specific shifts they address. Although nascent benchmarks provide a promising empirical foundation, they implicitly focus on covariate shifts, and the validity of empirical findings depends on the type of shift, e.g., previous observations on algorithmic performance can fail to be valid when the $Y|X$ distribution changes. We conduct a thorough investigation of natural shifts in 5 tabular datasets over 86,000 model configurations, and find that $Y|X$-shifts are most prevalent. To encourage researchers to develop a refined language for distribution shifts, we build WhyShift, an empirical testbed of curated real-world shifts where we characterize the type of shift we benchmark performance over. Since $Y|X$-shifts are prevalent in tabular settings, we identify covariate regions that suffer the biggest $Y|X$-shifts and discuss implications for algorithmic and data-based interventions. Our testbed highlights the importance of future research that builds an understanding of how distributions differ.

Adaptive Experimentation at Scale: Bayesian Algorithms for Flexible Batches

Standard bandit algorithms that assume continual reallocation of measurement effort are challenging to implement due to delayed feedback and infrastructural/organizational difficulties. Motivated by practical instances involving a handful of reallocation epochs in which outcomes are measured in batches, we develop a new adaptive experimentation framework that can flexibly handle any batch size. Our main observation is that normal approximations universal in statistical inference can also guide the design of scalable adaptive designs. By deriving an asymptotic sequential experiment, we formulate a dynamic program that can leverage prior information on average rewards. State transitions of the dynamic program are differentiable with respect to the sampling allocations, allowing the use of gradient-based methods for planning and policy optimization. We propose a simple iterative planning method, Residual Horizon Optimization, which selects sampling allocations by optimizing a planning objective via stochastic gradient-based methods. Our method significantly improves statistical power over standard adaptive policies, even when compared to Bayesian bandit algorithms (e.g., Thompson sampling) that require full distributional knowledge of individual rewards. Overall, we expand the scope of adaptive experimentation to settings which are difficult for standard adaptive policies, including problems with a small number of reallocation epochs, low signal-to-noise ratio, and unknown reward distributions.

Diagnosing Model Performance Under Distribution Shift

Prediction models can perform poorly when deployed to target distributions different from the training distribution. To understand these operational failure modes, we develop a method, called DIstribution Shift DEcomposition (DISDE), to attribute a drop in performance to different types of distribution shifts. Our approach decomposes the performance drop into terms for 1) an increase in harder but frequently seen examples from training, 2) changes in the relationship between features and outcomes, and 3) poor performance on examples infrequent or unseen during training. These terms are defined by fixing a distribution on $X$ while varying the conditional distribution of $Y \mid X$ between training and target, or by fixing the conditional distribution of $Y \mid X$ while varying the distribution on $X$. In order to do this, we define a hypothetical distribution on $X$ consisting of values common in both training and target, over which it is easy to compare $Y \mid X$ and thus predictive performance. We estimate performance on this hypothetical distribution via reweighting methods. Empirically, we show how our method can 1) inform potential modeling improvements across distribution shifts for employment prediction on tabular census data, and 2) help to explain why certain domain adaptation methods fail to improve model performance for satellite image classification.

An Operational Perspective to Fairness Interventions: Where and How to Intervene

As AI-based decision systems proliferate, their successful operationalization requires balancing multiple desiderata: predictive performance, disparity across groups, safeguarding sensitive group attributes (e.g., race), and engineering cost. We present a holistic framework for evaluating and contextualizing fairness interventions with respect to the above desiderata. The two key points of practical consideration are where (pre-, in-, post-processing) and how (in what way the sensitive group data is used) the intervention is introduced. We demonstrate our framework using a thorough benchmarking study on predictive parity; we study close to 400 methodological variations across two major model types (XGBoost vs. Neural Net) and ten datasets. Methodological insights derived from our empirical study inform the practical design of ML workflow with fairness as a central concern. We find predictive parity is difficult to achieve without using group data, and despite requiring group data during model training (but not inference), distributionally robust methods provide significant Pareto improvement. Moreover, a plain XGBoost model often Pareto-dominates neural networks with fairness interventions, highlighting the importance of model inductive bias.

Minimax Optimal Estimation of Stability Under Distribution Shift

The performance of decision policies and prediction models often deteriorates when applied to environments different from the ones seen during training. To ensure reliable operation, we propose and analyze the stability of a system under distribution shift, which is defined as the smallest change in the underlying environment that causes the system's performance to deteriorate beyond a permissible threshold. In contrast to standard tail risk measures and distributionally robust losses that require the specification of a plausible magnitude of distribution shift, the stability measure is defined in terms of a more intuitive quantity: the level of acceptable performance degradation. We develop a minimax optimal estimator of stability and analyze its convergence rate, which exhibits a fundamental phase shift behavior. Our characterization of the minimax convergence rate shows that evaluating stability against large performance degradation incurs a statistical cost. Empirically, we demonstrate the practical utility of our stability framework by using it to compare system designs on problems where robustness to distribution shift is critical.

Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference time

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. As a highlight, the resulting ViT-G model attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically.

Robust fine-tuning of zero-shot models

Large pre-trained models such as CLIP offer consistent accuracy across a range of data distributions when performing zero-shot inference (i.e., without fine-tuning on a specific dataset). Although existing fine-tuning approaches substantially improve accuracy in-distribution, they also reduce out-of-distribution robustness. We address this tension by introducing a simple and effective method for improving robustness: ensembling the weights of the zero-shot and fine-tuned models. Compared to standard fine-tuning, the resulting weight-space ensembles provide large accuracy improvements out-of-distribution, while matching or improving in-distribution accuracy. On ImageNet and five derived distribution shifts, weight-space ensembles improve out-of-distribution accuracy by 2 to 10 percentage points while increasing in-distribution accuracy by nearly 1 percentage point relative to standard fine-tuning. These improvements come at no additional computational cost during fine-tuning or inference.

Distilled Thompson Sampling: Practical and Efficient Thompson Sampling via Imitation Learning

Thompson sampling (TS) has emerged as a robust technique for contextual bandit problems. However, TS requires posterior inference and optimization for action generation, prohibiting its use in many internet applications where latency and ease of deployment are of concern. We propose a novel imitation-learning-based algorithm that distills a TS policy into an explicit policy representation by performing posterior inference and optimization offline. The explicit policy representation enables fast online decision-making and easy deployment in mobile and server-based environments. Our algorithm iteratively performs offline batch updates to the TS policy and learns a new imitation policy. Since we update the TS policy with observations collected under the imitation policy, our algorithm emulates an off-policy version of TS. Our imitation algorithm guarantees Bayes regret comparable to TS, up to the sum of single-step imitation errors. We show these imitation errors can be made arbitrarily small when unlabeled contexts are cheaply available, which is the case for most large-scale internet applications. Empirically, we show that our imitation policy achieves comparable regret to TS, while reducing decision-time latency by over an order of magnitude.

Distributionally Robust Losses for Latent Covariate Mixtures

While modern large-scale datasets often consist of heterogeneous subpopulations---for example, multiple demographic groups or multiple text corpora---the standard practice of minimizing average loss fails to guarantee uniformly low losses across all subpopulations. We propose a convex procedure that controls the worst-case performance over all subpopulations of a given size. Our procedure comes with finite-sample (nonparametric) convergence guarantees on the worst-off subpopulation. Empirically, we observe on lexical similarity, wine quality, and recidivism prediction tasks that our worst-case procedure learns models that do well against unseen subpopulations.