Zero-shot protein stability prediction by inverse folding models: a free energy interpretation

Inverse folding models have proven to be highly effective zero-shot predictors of protein stability. Despite this success, the link between the amino acid preferences of an inverse folding model and the free-energy considerations underlying thermodynamic stability remains incompletely understood. A better understanding would be of interest not only from a theoretical perspective, but also potentially provide the basis for stronger zero-shot stability prediction. In this paper, we take steps to clarify the free-energy foundations of inverse folding models. Our derivation reveals the standard practice of likelihood ratios as a simplistic approximation and suggests several paths towards better estimates of the relative stability. We empirically assess these approaches and demonstrate that considerable gains in zero-shot performance can be achieved with fairly simple means.

Batched Energy-Entropy acquisition for Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an attractive machine learning framework for performing sample-efficient global optimization of black-box functions. The optimization process is guided by an acquisition function that selects points to acquire in each round of BO. In batched BO, when multiple points are acquired in parallel, commonly used acquisition functions are often high-dimensional and intractable, leading to the use of sampling-based alternatives. We propose a statistical physics inspired acquisition function for BO with Gaussian processes that can natively handle batches. Batched Energy-Entropy acquisition for BO (BEEBO) enables tight control of the explore-exploit trade-off of the optimization process and generalizes to heteroskedastic black-box problems. We demonstrate the applicability of BEEBO on a range of problems, showing competitive performance to existing methods.

Probabilistic thermal stability prediction through sparsity promoting transformer representation

Pre-trained protein language models have demonstrated significant applicability in different protein engineering task. A general usage of these pre-trained transformer models latent representation is to use a mean pool across residue positions to reduce the feature dimensions to further downstream tasks such as predicting bio-physics properties or other functional behaviours. In this paper we provide a two-fold contribution to machine learning (ML) driven drug design. Firstly, we demonstrate the power of sparsity by promoting penalization of pre-trained transformer models to secure more robust and accurate melting temperature (Tm) prediction of single-chain variable fragments with a mean absolute error of 0.23C. Secondly, we demonstrate the power of framing our prediction problem in a probabilistic framework. Specifically, we advocate for the need of adopting probabilistic frameworks especially in the context of ML driven drug design.