Code Simulation Challenges for Large Language Models

We investigate the extent to which Large Language Models (LLMs) can simulate the execution of computer code and algorithms. We begin by looking at straight line programs, and show that current LLMs demonstrate poor performance even with such simple programs -- performance rapidly degrades with the length of code. We then investigate the ability of LLMs to simulate programs that contain critical paths and redundant instructions. We also go beyond straight line program simulation with sorting algorithms and nested loops, and we show the computational complexity of a routine directly affects the ability of an LLM to simulate its execution. We observe that LLMs execute instructions sequentially and with a low error margin only for short programs or standard procedures. LLMs' code simulation is in tension with their pattern recognition and memorisation capabilities: on tasks where memorisation is detrimental, we propose a novel prompting method to simulate code execution line by line. Empirically, our new Chain of Simulation (CoSm) method improves on the standard Chain of Thought prompting approach by avoiding the pitfalls of memorisation.

Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Agent-based Simulators

Agent-based simulators provide granular representations of complex intelligent systems by directly modelling the interactions of the system's constituent agents. Their high-fidelity nature enables hyper-local policy evaluation and testing of what-if scenarios, but is associated with large computational costs that inhibits their widespread use. Surrogate models can address these computational limitations, but they must behave consistently with the agent-based model under policy interventions of interest. In this paper, we capitalise on recent developments on causal abstractions to develop a framework for learning interventionally consistent surrogate models for agent-based simulators. Our proposed approach facilitates rapid experimentation with policy interventions in complex systems, while inducing surrogates to behave consistently with high probability with respect to the agent-based simulator across interventions of interest. We demonstrate with empirical studies that observationally trained surrogates can misjudge the effect of interventions and misguide policymakers towards suboptimal policies, while surrogates trained for interventional consistency with our proposed method closely mimic the behaviour of an agent-based model under interventions of interest.

The ARRT of Language-Models-as-a-Service: Overview of a New Paradigm and its Challenges

Some of the most powerful language models currently are proprietary systems, accessible only via (typically restrictive) web or software programming interfaces. This is the Language-Models-as-a-Service (LMaaS) paradigm. Contrasting with scenarios where full model access is available, as in the case of open-source models, such closed-off language models create specific challenges for evaluating, benchmarking, and testing them. This paper has two goals: on the one hand, we delineate how the aforementioned challenges act as impediments to the accessibility, replicability, reliability, and trustworthiness (ARRT) of LMaaS. We systematically examine the issues that arise from a lack of information about language models for each of these four aspects. We shed light on current solutions, provide some recommendations, and highlight the directions for future advancements. On the other hand, it serves as a one-stop-shop for the extant knowledge about current, major LMaaS, offering a synthesized overview of the licences and capabilities their interfaces offer.

Cognitive Effects in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have received enormous attention over the past year and are now used by hundreds of millions of people every day. The rapid adoption of this technology naturally raises questions about the possible biases such models might exhibit. In this work, we tested one of these models (GPT-3) on a range of cognitive effects, which are systematic patterns that are usually found in human cognitive tasks. We found that LLMs are indeed prone to several human cognitive effects. Specifically, we show that the priming, distance, SNARC, and size congruity effects were presented with GPT-3, while the anchoring effect is absent. We describe our methodology, and specifically the way we converted real-world experiments to text-based experiments. Finally, we speculate on the possible reasons why GPT-3 exhibits these effects and discuss whether they are imitated or reinvented.

On Imperfect Recall in Multi-Agent Influence Diagrams

Multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) are a popular game-theoretic model based on Bayesian networks. In some settings, MAIDs offer significant advantages over extensive-form game representations. Previous work on MAIDs has assumed that agents employ behavioural policies, which set independent conditional probability distributions over actions for each of their decisions. In settings with imperfect recall, however, a Nash equilibrium in behavioural policies may not exist. We overcome this by showing how to solve MAIDs with forgetful and absent-minded agents using mixed policies and two types of correlated equilibrium. We also analyse the computational complexity of key decision problems in MAIDs, and explore tractable cases. Finally, we describe applications of MAIDs to Markov games and team situations, where imperfect recall is often unavoidable.

Some challenges of calibrating differentiable agent-based models

Agent-based models (ABMs) are a promising approach to modelling and reasoning about complex systems, yet their application in practice is impeded by their complexity, discrete nature, and the difficulty of performing parameter inference and optimisation tasks. This in turn has sparked interest in the construction of differentiable ABMs as a strategy for combatting these difficulties, yet a number of challenges remain. In this paper, we discuss and present experiments that highlight some of these challenges, along with potential solutions.

Bayesian calibration of differentiable agent-based models

Agent-based modelling (ABMing) is a powerful and intuitive approach to modelling complex systems; however, the intractability of ABMs' likelihood functions and the non-differentiability of the mathematical operations comprising these models present a challenge to their use in the real world. These difficulties have in turn generated research on approximate Bayesian inference methods for ABMs and on constructing differentiable approximations to arbitrary ABMs, but little work has been directed towards designing approximate Bayesian inference techniques for the specific case of differentiable ABMs. In this work, we aim to address this gap and discuss how generalised variational inference procedures may be employed to provide misspecification-robust Bayesian parameter inferences for differentiable ABMs. We demonstrate with experiments on a differentiable ABM of the COVID-19 pandemic that our approach can result in accurate inferences, and discuss avenues for future work.

Reasoning about Causality in Games

Causal reasoning and game-theoretic reasoning are fundamental topics in artificial intelligence, among many other disciplines: this paper is concerned with their intersection. Despite their importance, a formal framework that supports both these forms of reasoning has, until now, been lacking. We offer a solution in the form of (structural) causal games, which can be seen as extending Pearl's causal hierarchy to the game-theoretic domain, or as extending Koller and Milch's multi-agent influence diagrams to the causal domain. We then consider three key questions: i) How can the (causal) dependencies in games - either between variables, or between strategies - be modelled in a uniform, principled manner? ii) How may causal queries be computed in causal games, and what assumptions does this require? iii) How do causal games compare to existing formalisms? To address question i), we introduce mechanised games, which encode dependencies between agents' decision rules and the distributions governing the game. In response to question ii), we present definitions of predictions, interventions, and counterfactuals, and discuss the assumptions required for each. Regarding question iii), we describe correspondences between causal games and other formalisms, and explain how causal games can be used to answer queries that other causal or game-theoretic models do not support. Finally, we highlight possible applications of causal games, aided by an extensive open-source Python library.

Ten Years after ImageNet: A 360° Perspective on AI

It is ten years since neural networks made their spectacular comeback. Prompted by this anniversary, we take a holistic perspective on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Supervised Learning for cognitive tasks is effectively solved - provided we have enough high-quality labeled data. However, deep neural network models are not easily interpretable, and thus the debate between blackbox and whitebox modeling has come to the fore. The rise of attention networks, self-supervised learning, generative modeling, and graph neural networks has widened the application space of AI. Deep Learning has also propelled the return of reinforcement learning as a core building block of autonomous decision making systems. The possible harms made possible by new AI technologies have raised socio-technical issues such as transparency, fairness, and accountability. The dominance of AI by Big-Tech who control talent, computing resources, and most importantly, data may lead to an extreme AI divide. Failure to meet high expectations in high profile, and much heralded flagship projects like self-driving vehicles could trigger another AI winter.

Learning Task Automata for Reinforcement Learning using Hidden Markov Models

Training reinforcement learning (RL) agents using scalar reward signals is often infeasible when an environment has sparse and non-Markovian rewards. Moreover, handcrafting these reward functions before training is prone to misspecification, especially when the environment's dynamics are only partially known. This paper proposes a novel pipeline for learning non-Markovian task specifications as succinct finite-state `task automata' from episodes of agent experience within unknown environments. We leverage two key algorithmic insights. First, we learn a product MDP, a model composed of the specification's automaton and the environment's MDP (both initially unknown), by treating it as a partially observable MDP and using off-the-shelf algorithms for hidden Markov models. Second, we propose a novel method for distilling the task automaton (assumed to be a deterministic finite automaton) from the learnt product MDP. Our learnt task automaton enables the decomposition of a task into its constituent sub-tasks, which improves the rate at which an RL agent can later synthesise an optimal policy. It also provides an interpretable encoding of high-level environmental and task features, so a human can readily verify that the agent has learnt coherent tasks with no misspecifications. In addition, we take steps towards ensuring that the learnt automaton is environment-agnostic, making it well-suited for use in transfer learning. Finally, we provide experimental results to illustrate our algorithm's performance in different environments and tasks and its ability to incorporate prior domain knowledge to facilitate more efficient learning.