Video as the New Language for Real-World Decision Making

Both text and video data are abundant on the internet and support large-scale self-supervised learning through next token or frame prediction. However, they have not been equally leveraged: language models have had significant real-world impact, whereas video generation has remained largely limited to media entertainment. Yet video data captures important information about the physical world that is difficult to express in language. To address this gap, we discuss an under-appreciated opportunity to extend video generation to solve tasks in the real world. We observe how, akin to language, video can serve as a unified interface that can absorb internet knowledge and represent diverse tasks. Moreover, we demonstrate how, like language models, video generation can serve as planners, agents, compute engines, and environment simulators through techniques such as in-context learning, planning and reinforcement learning. We identify major impact opportunities in domains such as robotics, self-driving, and science, supported by recent work that demonstrates how such advanced capabilities in video generation are plausibly within reach. Lastly, we identify key challenges in video generation that mitigate progress. Addressing these challenges will enable video generation models to demonstrate unique value alongside language models in a wider array of AI applications.

Investigating the role of model-based learning in exploration and transfer

State of the art reinforcement learning has enabled training agents on tasks of ever increasing complexity. However, the current paradigm tends to favor training agents from scratch on every new task or on collections of tasks with a view towards generalizing to novel task configurations. The former suffers from poor data efficiency while the latter is difficult when test tasks are out-of-distribution. Agents that can effectively transfer their knowledge about the world pose a potential solution to these issues. In this paper, we investigate transfer learning in the context of model-based agents. Specifically, we aim to understand when exactly environment models have an advantage and why. We find that a model-based approach outperforms controlled model-free baselines for transfer learning. Through ablations, we show that both the policy and dynamics model learnt through exploration matter for successful transfer. We demonstrate our results across three domains which vary in their requirements for transfer: in-distribution procedural (Crafter), in-distribution identical (RoboDesk), and out-of-distribution (Meta-World). Our results show that intrinsic exploration combined with environment models present a viable direction towards agents that are self-supervised and able to generalize to novel reward functions.

Transframer: Arbitrary Frame Prediction with Generative Models

We present a general-purpose framework for image modelling and vision tasks based on probabilistic frame prediction. Our approach unifies a broad range of tasks, from image segmentation, to novel view synthesis and video interpolation. We pair this framework with an architecture we term Transframer, which uses U-Net and Transformer components to condition on annotated context frames, and outputs sequences of sparse, compressed image features. Transframer is the state-of-the-art on a variety of video generation benchmarks, is competitive with the strongest models on few-shot view synthesis, and can generate coherent 30 second videos from a single image without any explicit geometric information. A single generalist Transframer simultaneously produces promising results on 8 tasks, including semantic segmentation, image classification and optical flow prediction with no task-specific architectural components, demonstrating that multi-task computer vision can be tackled using probabilistic image models. Our approach can in principle be applied to a wide range of applications that require learning the conditional structure of annotated image-formatted data.

Procedural Generalization by Planning with Self-Supervised World Models

One of the key promises of model-based reinforcement learning is the ability to generalize using an internal model of the world to make predictions in novel environments and tasks. However, the generalization ability of model-based agents is not well understood because existing work has focused on model-free agents when benchmarking generalization. Here, we explicitly measure the generalization ability of model-based agents in comparison to their model-free counterparts. We focus our analysis on MuZero (Schrittwieser et al., 2020), a powerful model-based agent, and evaluate its performance on both procedural and task generalization. We identify three factors of procedural generalization -- planning, self-supervised representation learning, and procedural data diversity -- and show that by combining these techniques, we achieve state-of-the art generalization performance and data efficiency on Procgen (Cobbe et al., 2019). However, we find that these factors do not always provide the same benefits for the task generalization benchmarks in Meta-World (Yu et al., 2019), indicating that transfer remains a challenge and may require different approaches than procedural generalization. Overall, we suggest that building generalizable agents requires moving beyond the single-task, model-free paradigm and towards self-supervised model-based agents that are trained in rich, procedural, multi-task environments.

CoBERL: Contrastive BERT for Reinforcement Learning

Many reinforcement learning (RL) agents require a large amount of experience to solve tasks. We propose Contrastive BERT for RL (CoBERL), an agent that combines a new contrastive loss and a hybrid LSTM-transformer architecture to tackle the challenge of improving data efficiency. CoBERL enables efficient, robust learning from pixels across a wide range of domains. We use bidirectional masked prediction in combination with a generalization of recent contrastive methods to learn better representations for transformers in RL, without the need of hand engineered data augmentations. We find that CoBERL consistently improves performance across the full Atari suite, a set of control tasks and a challenging 3D environment.

Predicting Video with VQVAE

In recent years, the task of video prediction-forecasting future video given past video frames-has attracted attention in the research community. In this paper we propose a novel approach to this problem with Vector Quantized Variational AutoEncoders (VQ-VAE). With VQ-VAE we compress high-resolution videos into a hierarchical set of multi-scale discrete latent variables. Compared to pixels, this compressed latent space has dramatically reduced dimensionality, allowing us to apply scalable autoregressive generative models to predict video. In contrast to previous work that has largely emphasized highly constrained datasets, we focus on very diverse, large-scale datasets such as Kinetics-600. We predict video at a higher resolution on unconstrained videos, 256x256, than any other previous method to our knowledge. We further validate our approach against prior work via a crowdsourced human evaluation.

Representation Learning via Invariant Causal Mechanisms

Self-supervised learning has emerged as a strategy to reduce the reliance on costly supervised signal by pretraining representations only using unlabeled data. These methods combine heuristic proxy classification tasks with data augmentations and have achieved significant success, but our theoretical understanding of this success remains limited. In this paper we analyze self-supervised representation learning using a causal framework. We show how data augmentations can be more effectively utilized through explicit invariance constraints on the proxy classifiers employed during pretraining. Based on this, we propose a novel self-supervised objective, Representation Learning via Invariant Causal Mechanisms (ReLIC), that enforces invariant prediction of proxy targets across augmentations through an invariance regularizer which yields improved generalization guarantees. Further, using causality we generalize contrastive learning, a particular kind of self-supervised method, and provide an alternative theoretical explanation for the success of these methods. Empirically, ReLIC significantly outperforms competing methods in terms of robustness and out-of-distribution generalization on ImageNet, while also significantly outperforming these methods on Atari achieving above human-level performance on $51$ out of $57$ games.

The Pose Knows: Video Forecasting by Generating Pose Futures

Current approaches in video forecasting attempt to generate videos directly in pixel space using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) or Variational Autoencoders (VAEs). However, since these approaches try to model all the structure and scene dynamics at once, in unconstrained settings they often generate uninterpretable results. Our insight is to model the forecasting problem at a higher level of abstraction. Specifically, we exploit human pose detectors as a free source of supervision and break the video forecasting problem into two discrete steps. First we explicitly model the high level structure of active objects in the scene---humans---and use a VAE to model the possible future movements of humans in the pose space. We then use the future poses generated as conditional information to a GAN to predict the future frames of the video in pixel space. By using the structured space of pose as an intermediate representation, we sidestep the problems that GANs have in generating video pixels directly. We show through quantitative and qualitative evaluation that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods for video prediction.

An Uncertain Future: Forecasting from Static Images using Variational Autoencoders

In a given scene, humans can often easily predict a set of immediate future events that might happen. However, generalized pixel-level anticipation in computer vision systems is difficult because machine learning struggles with the ambiguity inherent in predicting the future. In this paper, we focus on predicting the dense trajectory of pixels in a scene, specifically what will move in the scene, where it will travel, and how it will deform over the course of one second. We propose a conditional variational autoencoder as a solution to this problem. In this framework, direct inference from the image shapes the distribution of possible trajectories, while latent variables encode any necessary information that is not available in the image. We show that our method is able to successfully predict events in a wide variety of scenes and can produce multiple different predictions when the future is ambiguous. Our algorithm is trained on thousands of diverse, realistic videos and requires absolutely no human labeling. In addition to non-semantic action prediction, we find that our method learns a representation that is applicable to semantic vision tasks.

Dense Optical Flow Prediction from a Static Image

Given a scene, what is going to move, and in what direction will it move? Such a question could be considered a non-semantic form of action prediction. In this work, we present a convolutional neural network (CNN) based approach for motion prediction. Given a static image, this CNN predicts the future motion of each and every pixel in the image in terms of optical flow. Our CNN model leverages the data in tens of thousands of realistic videos to train our model. Our method relies on absolutely no human labeling and is able to predict motion based on the context of the scene. Because our CNN model makes no assumptions about the underlying scene, it can predict future optical flow on a diverse set of scenarios. We outperform all previous approaches by large margins.