Dual Online Stein Variational Inference for Control and Dynamics

Model predictive control (MPC) schemes have a proven track record for delivering aggressive and robust performance in many challenging control tasks, coping with nonlinear system dynamics, constraints, and observational noise. Despite their success, these methods often rely on simple control distributions, which can limit their performance in highly uncertain and complex environments. MPC frameworks must be able to accommodate changing distributions over system parameters, based on the most recent measurements. In this paper, we devise an implicit variational inference algorithm able to estimate distributions over model parameters and control inputs on-the-fly. The method incorporates Stein Variational gradient descent to approximate the target distributions as a collection of particles, and performs updates based on a Bayesian formulation. This enables the approximation of complex multi-modal posterior distributions, typically occurring in challenging and realistic robot navigation tasks. We demonstrate our approach on both simulated and real-world experiments requiring real-time execution in the face of dynamically changing environments.

BORE: Bayesian Optimization by Density-Ratio Estimation

Bayesian optimization (BO) is among the most effective and widely-used blackbox optimization methods. BO proposes solutions according to an explore-exploit trade-off criterion encoded in an acquisition function, many of which are computed from the posterior predictive of a probabilistic surrogate model. Prevalent among these is the expected improvement (EI) function. The need to ensure analytical tractability of the predictive often poses limitations that can hinder the efficiency and applicability of BO. In this paper, we cast the computation of EI as a binary classification problem, building on the link between class-probability estimation and density-ratio estimation, and the lesser-known link between density-ratios and EI. By circumventing the tractability constraints, this reformulation provides numerous advantages, not least in terms of expressiveness, versatility, and scalability.

Stein Variational Model Predictive Control

Decision making under uncertainty is critical to real-world, autonomous systems. Model Predictive Control (MPC) methods have demonstrated favorable performance in practice, but remain limited when dealing with complex probability distributions. In this paper, we propose a generalization of MPC that represents a multitude of solutions as posterior distributions. By casting MPC as a Bayesian inference problem, we employ variational methods for posterior computation, naturally encoding the complexity and multi-modality of the decision making problem. We propose a Stein variational gradient descent method to estimate the posterior directly over control parameters, given a cost function and observed state trajectories. We show that this framework leads to successful planning in challenging, non-convex optimal control problems.

A User's Guide to Calibrating Robotics Simulators

Simulators are a critical component of modern robotics research. Strategies for both perception and decision making can be studied in simulation first before deployed to real world systems, saving on time and costs. Despite significant progress on the development of sim-to-real algorithms, the analysis of different methods is still conducted in an ad-hoc manner, without a consistent set of tests and metrics for comparison. This paper fills this gap and proposes a set of benchmarks and a framework for the study of various algorithms aimed to transfer models and policies learnt in simulation to the real world. We conduct experiments on a wide range of well known simulated environments to characterize and offer insights into the performance of different algorithms. Our analysis can be useful for practitioners working in this area and can help make informed choices about the behavior and main properties of sim-to-real algorithms. We open-source the benchmark, training data, and trained models, which can be found at https://github.com/NVlabs/sim-parameter-estimation.

Fast Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Object Pose Estimation

Deep learning-based object pose estimators are often unreliable and overconfident especially when the input image is outside the training domain, for instance, with sim2real transfer. Efficient and robust uncertainty quantification (UQ) in pose estimators is critically needed in many robotic tasks. In this work, we propose a simple, efficient, and plug-and-play UQ method for 6-DoF object pose estimation. We ensemble 2-3 pre-trained models with different neural network architectures and/or training data sources, and compute their average pairwise disagreement against one another to obtain the uncertainty quantification. We propose four disagreement metrics, including a learned metric, and show that the average distance (ADD) is the best learning-free metric and it is only slightly worse than the learned metric, which requires labeled target data. Our method has several advantages compared to the prior art: 1) our method does not require any modification of the training process or the model inputs; and 2) it needs only one forward pass for each model. We evaluate the proposed UQ method on three tasks where our uncertainty quantification yields much stronger correlations with pose estimation errors than the baselines. Moreover, in a real robot grasping task, our method increases the grasping success rate from 35% to 90%.

Anticipatory Navigation in Crowds by Probabilistic Prediction of Pedestrian Future Movements

Critical for the coexistence of humans and robots in dynamic environments is the capability for agents to understand each other's actions, and anticipate their movements. This paper presents Stochastic Process Anticipatory Navigation (SPAN), a framework that enables nonholonomic robots to navigate in environments with crowds, while anticipating and accounting for the motion patterns of pedestrians. To this end, we learn a predictive model to predict continuous-time stochastic processes to model future movement of pedestrians. Anticipated pedestrian positions are used to conduct chance constrained collision-checking, and are incorporated into a time-to-collision control problem. An occupancy map is also integrated to allow for probabilistic collision-checking with static obstacles. We demonstrate the capability of SPAN in crowded simulation environments, as well as with a real-world pedestrian dataset.

STReSSD: Sim-To-Real from Sound for Stochastic Dynamics

Sound is an information-rich medium that captures dynamic physical events. This work presents STReSSD, a framework that uses sound to bridge the simulation-to-reality gap for stochastic dynamics, demonstrated for the canonical case of a bouncing ball. A physically-motivated noise model is presented to capture stochastic behavior of the balls upon collision with the environment. A likelihood-free Bayesian inference framework is used to infer the parameters of the noise model, as well as a material property called the coefficient of restitution, from audio observations. The same inference framework and the calibrated stochastic simulator are then used to learn a probabilistic model of ball dynamics. The predictive capabilities of the dynamics model are tested in two robotic experiments. First, open-loop predictions anticipate probabilistic success of bouncing a ball into a cup. The second experiment integrates audio perception with a robotic arm to track and deflect a bouncing ball in real-time. We envision that this work is a step towards integrating audio-based inference for dynamic robotic tasks. Experimental results can be viewed at https://youtu.be/b7pOrgZrArk.

Learning to Plan Optimally with Flow-based Motion Planner

Sampling-based motion planning is the predominant paradigm in many real-world robotic applications, but its performance is immensely dependent on the quality of the samples. The majority of traditional planners are inefficient as they use uninformative sampling distributions as opposed to exploiting structures and patterns in the problem to guide better sampling strategies. Moreover, most current learning-based planners are susceptible to posterior collapse or mode collapse due to the sparsity and highly varying nature of C-Space and motion plan configurations. In this work, we introduce a conditional normalising flow based distribution learned through previous experiences to improve sampling of these methods. Our distribution can be conditioned on the current problem instance to provide an informative prior for sampling configurations within promising regions. When we train our sampler with an expert planner, the resulting distribution is often near-optimal, and the planner can find a solution faster, with less invalid samples, and less initial cost. The normalising flow based distribution uses simple invertible transformations that are very computationally efficient, and our optimisation formulation explicitly avoids mode collapse in contrast to other existing learning-based planners. Finally, we provide a formulation and theoretical foundation to efficiently sample from the distribution; and demonstrate experimentally that, by using our normalising flow based distribution, a solution can be found faster, with less samples and better overall runtime performance.

Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimisation and Joint Inversion for Active Sensor Fusion

A critical decision process in data acquisition for mineral and energy resource exploration is how to efficiently combine a variety of sensor types and to minimize total cost. We propose a probabilistic framework for multi-objective optimisation and inverse problems given an expensive cost function for allocating new measurements. This new method is devised to jointly solve multi-linear forward models of 2D-sensor data and 3D-geophysical properties using sparse Gaussian Process kernels while taking into account the cross-variances of different parameters. Multiple optimisation strategies are tested and evaluated on a set of synthetic and real geophysical data. We demonstrate the advantages on a specific example of a joint inverse problem, recommending where to place new drill-core measurements given 2D gravity and magnetic sensor data, the same approach can be applied to a variety of remote sensing problems with linear forward models - ranging from constraints limiting surface access for data acquisition to adaptive multi-sensor positioning.