TAP: A Comprehensive Data Repository for Traffic Accident Prediction in Road Networks

Road safety is a major global public health concern. Effective traffic crash prediction can play a critical role in reducing road traffic accidents. However, Existing machine learning approaches tend to focus on predicting traffic accidents in isolation, without considering the potential relationships between different accident locations within road networks. To incorporate graph structure information, graph-based approaches such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can be naturally applied. However, applying GNNs to the accident prediction problem faces challenges due to the lack of suitable graph-structured traffic accident datasets. To bridge this gap, we have constructed a real-world graph-based Traffic Accident Prediction (TAP) data repository, along with two representative tasks: accident occurrence prediction and accident severity prediction. With nationwide coverage, real-world network topology, and rich geospatial features, this data repository can be used for a variety of traffic-related tasks. We further comprehensively evaluate eleven state-of-the-art GNN variants and two non-graph-based machine learning methods using the created datasets. Significantly facilitated by the proposed data, we develop a novel Traffic Accident Vulnerability Estimation via Linkage (TRAVEL) model, which is designed to capture angular and directional information from road networks. We demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms the baselines. The data and code are available on GitHub (https://github.com/baixianghuang/travel).

RETEXO: Scalable Neural Network Training over Distributed Graphs

Graph neural networks offer a promising approach to supervised learning over graph data. Graph data, especially when it is privacy-sensitive or too large to train on centrally, is often stored partitioned across disparate processing units (clients) which want to minimize the communication costs during collaborative training. The fully-distributed setup takes such partitioning to its extreme, wherein features of only a single node and its adjacent edges are kept locally with one client processor. Existing GNNs are not architected for training in such setups and incur prohibitive costs therein. We propose RETEXO, a novel transformation of existing GNNs that improves the communication efficiency during training in the fully-distributed setup. We experimentally confirm that RETEXO offers up to 6 orders of magnitude better communication efficiency even when training shallow GNNs, with a minimal trade-off in accuracy for supervised node classification tasks.

Trust, but Verify: Using Self-Supervised Probing to Improve Trustworthiness

Trustworthy machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning models. While state-of-the-art models achieve astonishingly good performance in terms of accuracy, recent literature reveals that their predictive confidence scores unfortunately cannot be trusted: e.g., they are often overconfident when wrong predictions are made, or so even for obvious outliers. In this paper, we introduce a new approach of self-supervised probing, which enables us to check and mitigate the overconfidence issue for a trained model, thereby improving its trustworthiness. We provide a simple yet effective framework, which can be flexibly applied to existing trustworthiness-related methods in a plug-and-play manner. Extensive experiments on three trustworthiness-related tasks (misclassification detection, calibration and out-of-distribution detection) across various benchmarks verify the effectiveness of our proposed probing framework.

Do We Really Need Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Forecasting?

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) have become the most popular solution to traffic forecasting. While successful, they rely on the message passing scheme of GNNs to establish spatial dependencies between nodes, and thus inevitably inherit GNNs' notorious inefficiency. Given these facts, in this paper, we propose an embarrassingly simple yet remarkably effective spatio-temporal learning approach, entitled SimST. Specifically, SimST approximates the efficacies of GNNs by two spatial learning techniques, which respectively model local and global spatial correlations. Moreover, SimST can be used alongside various temporal models and involves a tailored training strategy. We conduct experiments on five traffic benchmarks to assess the capability of SimST in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. Empirical results show that SimST improves the prediction throughput by up to 39 times compared to more sophisticated STGNNs while attaining comparable performance, which indicates that GNNs are not the only option for spatial modeling in traffic forecasting.

A Generalization of ViT/MLP-Mixer to Graphs

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great potential in the field of graph representation learning. Standard GNNs define a local message-passing mechanism which propagates information over the whole graph domain by stacking multiple layers. This paradigm suffers from two major limitations, over-squashing and poor long-range dependencies, that can be solved using global attention but significantly increases the computational cost to quadratic complexity. In this work, we propose an alternative approach to overcome these structural limitations by leveraging the ViT/MLP-Mixer architectures introduced in computer vision. We introduce a new class of GNNs, called Graph MLP-Mixer, that holds three key properties. First, they capture long-range dependency and mitigate the issue of over-squashing as demonstrated on the Long Range Graph Benchmark (LRGB) and the TreeNeighbourMatch datasets. Second, they offer better speed and memory efficiency with a complexity linear to the number of nodes and edges, surpassing the related Graph Transformer and expressive GNN models. Third, they show high expressivity in terms of graph isomorphism as they can distinguish at least 3-WL non-isomorphic graphs. We test our architecture on 4 simulated datasets and 7 real-world benchmarks, and show highly competitive results on all of them.

Expanding Small-Scale Datasets with Guided Imagination

The power of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) depends heavily on the training data quantity, quality and diversity. However, in many real scenarios, it is costly and time-consuming to collect and annotate large-scale data. This has severely hindered the application of DNNs. To address this challenge, we explore a new task of dataset expansion, which seeks to automatically create new labeled samples to expand a small dataset. To this end, we present a Guided Imagination Framework (GIF) that leverages the recently developed big generative models (e.g., DALL-E2) and reconstruction models (e.g., MAE) to "imagine" and create informative new data from seed data to expand small datasets. Specifically, GIF conducts imagination by optimizing the latent features of seed data in a semantically meaningful space, which are fed into the generative models to generate photo-realistic images with new contents. For guiding the imagination towards creating samples useful for model training, we exploit the zero-shot recognition ability of CLIP and introduce three criteria to encourage informative sample generation, i.e., prediction consistency, entropy maximization and diversity promotion. With these essential criteria as guidance, GIF works well for expanding datasets in different domains, leading to 29.9% accuracy gain on average over six natural image datasets, and 12.3% accuracy gain on average over three medical image datasets. The source code will be released: \url{https://github.com/Vanint/DatasetExpansion}.

Birds of a Feather Trust Together: Knowing When to Trust a Classifier via Adaptive Neighborhood Aggregation

How do we know when the predictions made by a classifier can be trusted? This is a fundamental problem that also has immense practical applicability, especially in safety-critical areas such as medicine and autonomous driving. The de facto approach of using the classifier's softmax outputs as a proxy for trustworthiness suffers from the over-confidence issue; while the most recent works incur problems such as additional retraining cost and accuracy versus trustworthiness trade-off. In this work, we argue that the trustworthiness of a classifier's prediction for a sample is highly associated with two factors: the sample's neighborhood information and the classifier's output. To combine the best of both worlds, we design a model-agnostic post-hoc approach NeighborAgg to leverage the two essential information via an adaptive neighborhood aggregation. Theoretically, we show that NeighborAgg is a generalized version of a one-hop graph convolutional network, inheriting the powerful modeling ability to capture the varying similarity between samples within each class. We also extend our approach to the closely related task of mislabel detection and provide a theoretical coverage guarantee to bound the false negative. Empirically, extensive experiments on image and tabular benchmarks verify our theory and suggest that NeighborAgg outperforms other methods, achieving state-of-the-art trustworthiness performance.

Reachability-Aware Laplacian Representation in Reinforcement Learning

In Reinforcement Learning (RL), Laplacian Representation (LapRep) is a task-agnostic state representation that encodes the geometry of the environment. A desirable property of LapRep stated in prior works is that the Euclidean distance in the LapRep space roughly reflects the reachability between states, which motivates the usage of this distance for reward shaping. However, we find that LapRep does not necessarily have this property in general: two states having small distance under LapRep can actually be far away in the environment. Such mismatch would impede the learning process in reward shaping. To fix this issue, we introduce a Reachability-Aware Laplacian Representation (RA-LapRep), by properly scaling each dimension of LapRep. Despite the simplicity, we demonstrate that RA-LapRep can better capture the inter-state reachability as compared to LapRep, through both theoretical explanations and experimental results. Additionally, we show that this improvement yields a significant boost in reward shaping performance and also benefits bottleneck state discovery.