Scalable Spatiotemporal Prediction with Bayesian Neural Fields

Spatiotemporal datasets, which consist of spatially-referenced time series, are ubiquitous in many scientific and business-intelligence applications, such as air pollution monitoring, disease tracking, and cloud-demand forecasting. As modern datasets continue to increase in size and complexity, there is a growing need for new statistical methods that are flexible enough to capture complex spatiotemporal dynamics and scalable enough to handle large prediction problems. This work presents the Bayesian Neural Field (BayesNF), a domain-general statistical model for inferring rich probability distributions over a spatiotemporal domain, which can be used for data-analysis tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and variography. BayesNF integrates a novel deep neural network architecture for high-capacity function estimation with hierarchical Bayesian inference for robust uncertainty quantification. By defining the prior through a sequence of smooth differentiable transforms, posterior inference is conducted on large-scale data using variationally learned surrogates trained via stochastic gradient descent. We evaluate BayesNF against prominent statistical and machine-learning baselines, showing considerable improvements on diverse prediction problems from climate and public health datasets that contain tens to hundreds of thousands of measurements. The paper is accompanied with an open-source software package (https://github.com/google/bayesnf) that is easy-to-use and compatible with modern GPU and TPU accelerators on the JAX machine learning platform.

Robust Inverse Graphics via Probabilistic Inference

How do we infer a 3D scene from a single image in the presence of corruptions like rain, snow or fog? Straightforward domain randomization relies on knowing the family of corruptions ahead of time. Here, we propose a Bayesian approach-dubbed robust inverse graphics (RIG)-that relies on a strong scene prior and an uninformative uniform corruption prior, making it applicable to a wide range of corruptions. Given a single image, RIG performs posterior inference jointly over the scene and the corruption. We demonstrate this idea by training a neural radiance field (NeRF) scene prior and using a secondary NeRF to represent the corruptions over which we place an uninformative prior. RIG, trained only on clean data, outperforms depth estimators and alternative NeRF approaches that perform point estimation instead of full inference. The results hold for a number of scene prior architectures based on normalizing flows and diffusion models. For the latter, we develop reconstruction-guidance with auxiliary latents (ReGAL)-a diffusion conditioning algorithm that is applicable in the presence of auxiliary latent variables such as the corruption. RIG demonstrates how scene priors can be used beyond generation tasks.

Bayes3D: fast learning and inference in structured generative models of 3D objects and scenes

Robots cannot yet match humans' ability to rapidly learn the shapes of novel 3D objects and recognize them robustly despite clutter and occlusion. We present Bayes3D, an uncertainty-aware perception system for structured 3D scenes, that reports accurate posterior uncertainty over 3D object shape, pose, and scene composition in the presence of clutter and occlusion. Bayes3D delivers these capabilities via a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for 3D scenes and a GPU-accelerated coarse-to-fine sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. Quantitative experiments show that Bayes3D can learn 3D models of novel objects from just a handful of views, recognizing them more robustly and with orders of magnitude less training data than neural baselines, and tracking 3D objects faster than real time on a single GPU. We also demonstrate that Bayes3D learns complex 3D object models and accurately infers 3D scene composition when used on a Panda robot in a tabletop scenario.

Automatically Batching Control-Intensive Programs for Modern Accelerators

We present a general approach to batching arbitrary computations for accelerators such as GPUs. We show orders-of-magnitude speedups using our method on the No U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), a workhorse algorithm in Bayesian statistics. The central challenge of batching NUTS and other Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms is data-dependent control flow and recursion. We overcome this by mechanically transforming a single-example implementation into a form that explicitly tracks the current program point for each batch member, and only steps forward those in the same place. We present two different batching algorithms: a simpler, previously published one that inherits recursion from the host Python, and a more complex, novel one that implemenents recursion directly and can batch across it. We implement these batching methods as a general program transformation on Python source. Both the batching system and the NUTS implementation presented here are available as part of the popular TensorFlow Probability software package.

Universal Sound Separation

Recent deep learning approaches have achieved impressive performance on speech enhancement and separation tasks. However, these approaches have not been investigated for separating mixtures of arbitrary sounds of different types, a task we refer to as universal sound separation, and it is unknown whether performance on speech tasks carries over to non-speech tasks. To study this question, we develop a universal dataset of mixtures containing arbitrary sounds, and use it to investigate the space of mask-based separation architectures, varying both the overall network architecture and the framewise analysis-synthesis basis for signal transformations. These network architectures include convolutional long short-term memory networks and time-dilated convolution stacks inspired by the recent success of time-domain enhancement networks like ConvTasNet. For the latter architecture, we also propose novel modifications that further improve separation performance. In terms of the framewise analysis-synthesis basis, we explore using either a short-time Fourier transform (STFT) or a learnable basis, as used in ConvTasNet, and for both of these bases, we examine the effect of window size. In particular, for STFTs, we find that longer windows (25-50 ms) work best for speech/non-speech separation, while shorter windows (2.5 ms) work best for arbitrary sounds. For learnable bases, shorter windows (2.5 ms) work best on all tasks. Surprisingly, for universal sound separation, STFTs outperform learnable bases. Our best methods produce an improvement in scale-invariant signal-to-distortion ratio of over 13 dB for speech/non-speech separation and close to 10 dB for universal sound separation.

Estimating the Spectral Density of Large Implicit Matrices

Many important problems are characterized by the eigenvalues of a large matrix. For example, the difficulty of many optimization problems, such as those arising from the fitting of large models in statistics and machine learning, can be investigated via the spectrum of the Hessian of the empirical loss function. Network data can be understood via the eigenstructure of a graph Laplacian matrix using spectral graph theory. Quantum simulations and other many-body problems are often characterized via the eigenvalues of the solution space, as are various dynamic systems. However, naive eigenvalue estimation is computationally expensive even when the matrix can be represented; in many of these situations the matrix is so large as to only be available implicitly via products with vectors. Even worse, one may only have noisy estimates of such matrix vector products. In this work, we combine several different techniques for randomized estimation and show that it is possible to construct unbiased estimators to answer a broad class of questions about the spectra of such implicit matrices, even in the presence of noise. We validate these methods on large-scale problems in which graph theory and random matrix theory provide ground truth.

TensorFlow Distributions

The TensorFlow Distributions library implements a vision of probability theory adapted to the modern deep-learning paradigm of end-to-end differentiable computation. Building on two basic abstractions, it offers flexible building blocks for probabilistic computation. Distributions provide fast, numerically stable methods for generating samples and computing statistics, e.g., log density. Bijectors provide composable volume-tracking transformations with automatic caching. Together these enable modular construction of high dimensional distributions and transformations not possible with previous libraries (e.g., pixelCNNs, autoregressive flows, and reversible residual networks). They are the workhorse behind deep probabilistic programming systems like Edward and empower fast black-box inference in probabilistic models built on deep-network components. TensorFlow Distributions has proven an important part of the TensorFlow toolkit within Google and in the broader deep learning community.

AutoMOS: Learning a non-intrusive assessor of naturalness-of-speech

Developers of text-to-speech synthesizers (TTS) often make use of human raters to assess the quality of synthesized speech. We demonstrate that we can model human raters' mean opinion scores (MOS) of synthesized speech using a deep recurrent neural network whose inputs consist solely of a raw waveform. Our best models provide utterance-level estimates of MOS only moderately inferior to sampled human ratings, as shown by Pearson and Spearman correlations. When multiple utterances are scored and averaged, a scenario common in synthesizer quality assessment, AutoMOS achieves correlations approaching those of human raters. The AutoMOS model has a number of applications, such as the ability to explore the parameter space of a speech synthesizer without requiring a human-in-the-loop.