A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Deep Neural Networks: An Uncertainty Source Perspective

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in making accurate predictions for computer vision, natural language processing, as well as science and engineering domains. However, it is also well-recognized that DNNs sometimes make unexpected, incorrect, but overconfident predictions. This can cause serious consequences in high-stake applications, such as autonomous driving, medical diagnosis, and disaster response. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to estimate the confidence of DNN predictions beyond prediction accuracy. In recent years, many UQ methods have been developed for DNNs. It is of great practical value to systematically categorize these UQ methods and compare their advantages and disadvantages. However, existing surveys mostly focus on categorizing UQ methodologies from a neural network architecture perspective or a Bayesian perspective and ignore the source of uncertainty that each methodology can incorporate, making it difficult to select an appropriate UQ method in practice. To fill the gap, this paper presents a systematic taxonomy of UQ methods for DNNs based on the types of uncertainty sources (data uncertainty versus model uncertainty). We summarize the advantages and disadvantages of methods in each category. We show how our taxonomy of UQ methodologies can potentially help guide the choice of UQ method in different machine learning problems (e.g., active learning, robustness, and reinforcement learning). We also identify current research gaps and propose several future research directions.

An Explainer for Temporal Graph Neural Networks

Temporal graph neural networks (TGNNs) have been widely used for modeling time-evolving graph-related tasks due to their ability to capture both graph topology dependency and non-linear temporal dynamic. The explanation of TGNNs is of vital importance for a transparent and trustworthy model. However, the complex topology structure and temporal dependency make explaining TGNN models very challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel explainer framework for TGNN models. Given a time series on a graph to be explained, the framework can identify dominant explanations in the form of a probabilistic graphical model in a time period. Case studies on the transportation domain demonstrate that the proposed approach can discover dynamic dependency structures in a road network for a time period.

Spatiotemporal Data Mining: A Survey

Spatiotemporal data mining aims to discover interesting, useful but non-trivial patterns in big spatial and spatiotemporal data. They are used in various application domains such as public safety, ecology, epidemiology, earth science, etc. This problem is challenging because of the high societal cost of spurious patterns and exorbitant computational cost. Recent surveys of spatiotemporal data mining need update due to rapid growth. In addition, they did not adequately survey parallel techniques for spatiotemporal data mining. This paper provides a more up-to-date survey of spatiotemporal data mining methods. Furthermore, it has a detailed survey of parallel formulations of spatiotemporal data mining.

Modeling Reservoir Release Using Pseudo-Prospective Learning and Physical Simulations to Predict Water Temperature

This paper proposes a new data-driven method for predicting water temperature in stream networks with reservoirs. The water flows released from reservoirs greatly affect the water temperature of downstream river segments. However, the information of released water flow is often not available for many reservoirs, which makes it difficult for data-driven models to capture the impact to downstream river segments. In this paper, we first build a state-aware graph model to represent the interactions amongst streams and reservoirs, and then propose a parallel learning structure to extract the reservoir release information and use it to improve the prediction. In particular, for reservoirs with no available release information, we mimic the water managers' release decision process through a pseudo-prospective learning method, which infers the release information from anticipated water temperature dynamics. For reservoirs with the release information, we leverage a physics-based model to simulate the water release temperature and transfer such information to guide the learning process for other reservoirs. The evaluation for the Delaware River Basin shows that the proposed method brings over 10\% accuracy improvement over existing data-driven models for stream temperature prediction when the release data is not available for any reservoirs. The performance is further improved after we incorporate the release data and physical simulations for a subset of reservoirs.

Background-aware Classification Activation Map for Weakly Supervised Object Localization

Weakly supervised object localization (WSOL) relaxes the requirement of dense annotations for object localization by using image-level classification masks to supervise its learning process. However, current WSOL methods suffer from excessive activation of background locations and need post-processing to obtain the localization mask. This paper attributes these issues to the unawareness of background cues, and propose the background-aware classification activation map (B-CAM) to simultaneously learn localization scores of both object and background with only image-level labels. In our B-CAM, two image-level features, aggregated by pixel-level features of potential background and object locations, are used to purify the object feature from the object-related background and to represent the feature of the pure-background sample, respectively. Then based on these two features, both the object classifier and the background classifier are learned to determine the binary object localization mask. Our B-CAM can be trained in end-to-end manner based on a proposed stagger classification loss, which not only improves the objects localization but also suppresses the background activation. Experiments show that our B-CAM outperforms one-stage WSOL methods on the CUB-200, OpenImages and VOC2012 datasets.

A Label Management Mechanism for Retinal Fundus Image Classification of Diabetic Retinopathy

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) remains the most prevalent cause of vision impairment and irreversible blindness in the working-age adults. Due to the renaissance of deep learning (DL), DL-based DR diagnosis has become a promising tool for the early screening and severity grading of DR. However, training deep neural networks (DNNs) requires an enormous amount of carefully labeled data. Noisy label data may be introduced when labeling plenty of data, degrading the performance of models. In this work, we propose a novel label management mechanism (LMM) for the DNN to overcome overfitting on the noisy data. LMM utilizes maximum posteriori probability (MAP) in the Bayesian statistic and time-weighted technique to selectively correct the labels of unclean data, which gradually purify the training data and improve classification performance. Comprehensive experiments on both synthetic noise data (Messidor \& our collected DR dataset) and real-world noise data (ANIMAL-10N) demonstrated that LMM could boost performance of models and is superior to three state-of-the-art methods.

A Survey on Spatial and Spatiotemporal Prediction Methods

With the advancement of GPS and remote sensing technologies, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected from various domains, driving the need for effective and efficient prediction methods. Given spatial data samples with explanatory features and targeted responses (categorical or continuous) at a set of locations, the problem aims to learn a model that can predict the response variable based on explanatory features. The problem is important with broad applications in earth science, urban informatics, geosocial media analytics and public health, but is challenging due to the unique characteristics of spatiotemporal data, including spatial and temporal autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity, temporal non-stationarity, limited ground truth, and multiple scales and resolutions. This paper provides a systematic review on principles and methods in spatial and spatiotemporal prediction. We provide a taxonomy of methods categorized by the key challenge they address. For each method, we introduce its underlying assumption, theoretical foundation, and discuss its advantages and disadvantages. Our goal is to help interdisciplinary domain scientists choose techniques to solve their problems, and more importantly, to help data mining researchers to understand the main principles and methods in spatial and spatiotemporal prediction and identify future research opportunities.

An Efficient End-to-End Deep Learning Training Framework via Fine-Grained Pattern-Based Pruning

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are becoming increasingly deeper, wider, and non-linear because of the growing demand on prediction accuracy and analysis quality. The wide and deep CNNs, however, require a large amount of computing resources and processing time. Many previous works have studied model pruning to improve inference performance, but little work has been done for effectively reducing training cost. In this paper, we propose ClickTrain: an efficient and accurate end-to-end training and pruning framework for CNNs. Different from the existing pruning-during-training work, ClickTrain provides higher model accuracy and compression ratio via fine-grained architecture-preserving pruning. By leveraging pattern-based pruning with our proposed novel accurate weight importance estimation, dynamic pattern generation and selection, and compiler-assisted computation optimizations, ClickTrain generates highly accurate and fast pruned CNN models for direct deployment without any time overhead, compared with the baseline training. ClickTrain also reduces the end-to-end time cost of the state-of-the-art pruning-after-training methods by up to about 67% with comparable accuracy and compression ratio. Moreover, compared with the state-of-the-art pruning-during-training approach, ClickTrain reduces the accuracy drop by up to 2.1% and improves the compression ratio by up to 2.2X on the tested datasets, under similar limited training time.

Deep Learning for Earth Image Segmentation based on Imperfect Polyline Labels with Annotation Errors

In recent years, deep learning techniques (e.g., U-Net, DeepLab) have achieved tremendous success in image segmentation. The performance of these models heavily relies on high-quality ground truth segment labels. Unfortunately, in many real-world problems, ground truth segment labels often have geometric annotation errors due to manual annotation mistakes, GPS errors, or visually interpreting background imagery at a coarse resolution. Such location errors will significantly impact the training performance of existing deep learning algorithms. Existing research on label errors either models ground truth errors in label semantics (assuming label locations to be correct) or models label location errors with simple square patch shifting. These methods cannot fully incorporate the geometric properties of label location errors. To fill the gap, this paper proposes a generic learning framework based on the EM algorithm to update deep learning model parameters and infer hidden true label locations simultaneously. Evaluations on a real-world hydrological dataset in the streamline refinement application show that the proposed framework outperforms baseline methods in classification accuracy (reducing the number of false positives by 67% and reducing the number of false negatives by 55%).

Semi-supervised Learning with the EM Algorithm: A Comparative Study between Unstructured and Structured Prediction

Semi-supervised learning aims to learn prediction models from both labeled and unlabeled samples. There has been extensive research in this area. Among existing work, generative mixture models with Expectation-Maximization (EM) is a popular method due to clear statistical properties. However, existing literature on EM-based semi-supervised learning largely focuses on unstructured prediction, assuming that samples are independent and identically distributed. Studies on EM-based semi-supervised approach in structured prediction is limited. This paper aims to fill the gap through a comparative study between unstructured and structured methods in EM-based semi-supervised learning. Specifically, we compare their theoretical properties and find that both methods can be considered as a generalization of self-training with soft class assignment of unlabeled samples, but the structured method additionally considers structural constraint in soft class assignment. We conducted a case study on real-world flood mapping datasets to compare the two methods. Results show that structured EM is more robust to class confusion caused by noise and obstacles in features in the context of the flood mapping application.