Instance-wise Graph-based Framework for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

The multivariate time series forecasting has attracted more and more attention because of its vital role in different fields in the real world, such as finance, traffic, and weather. In recent years, many research efforts have been proposed for forecasting multivariate time series. Although some previous work considers the interdependencies among different variables in the same timestamp, existing work overlooks the inter-connections between different variables at different time stamps. In this paper, we propose a simple yet efficient instance-wise graph-based framework to utilize the inter-dependencies of different variables at different time stamps for multivariate time series forecasting. The key idea of our framework is aggregating information from the historical time series of different variables to the current time series that we need to forecast. We conduct experiments on the Traffic, Electricity, and Exchange-Rate multivariate time series datasets. The results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Analyzing and Mitigating Interference in Neural Architecture Search

Weight sharing has become the \textit{de facto} approach to reduce the training cost of neural architecture search (NAS) by reusing the weights of shared operators from previously trained child models. However, the estimated accuracy of those child models has a low rank correlation with the ground truth accuracy due to the interference among different child models caused by weight sharing. In this paper, we investigate the interference issue by sampling different child models and calculating the gradient similarity of shared operators, and observe that: 1) the interference on a shared operator between two child models is positively correlated to the number of different operators between them; 2) the interference is smaller when the inputs and outputs of the shared operator are more similar. Inspired by these two observations, we propose two approaches to mitigate the interference: 1) rather than randomly sampling child models for optimization, we propose a gradual modification scheme by modifying one operator between adjacent optimization steps to minimize the interference on the shared operators; 2) forcing the inputs and outputs of the operator across all child models to be similar to reduce the interference. Experiments on a BERT search space verify that mitigating interference via each of our proposed methods improves the rank correlation of super-pet and combining both methods can achieve better results. Our searched architecture outperforms RoBERTa$_{\rm base}$ by 1.1 and 0.6 scores and ELECTRA$_{\rm base}$ by 1.6 and 1.1 scores on the dev and test set of GLUE benchmark. Extensive results on the BERT compression task, SQuAD datasets and other search spaces also demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of our proposed methods.

On the Generative Utility of Cyclic Conditionals

We study whether and how can we model a joint distribution $p(x,z)$ using two conditional models $p(x|z)$ and $q(z|x)$ that form a cycle. This is motivated by the observation that deep generative models, in addition to a likelihood model $p(x|z)$, often also use an inference model $q(z|x)$ for data representation, but they rely on a usually uninformative prior distribution $p(z)$ to define a joint distribution, which may render problems like posterior collapse and manifold mismatch. To explore the possibility to model a joint distribution using only $p(x|z)$ and $q(z|x)$, we study their compatibility and determinacy, corresponding to the existence and uniqueness of a joint distribution whose conditional distributions coincide with them. We develop a general theory for novel and operable equivalence criteria for compatibility, and sufficient conditions for determinacy. Based on the theory, we propose the CyGen framework for cyclic-conditional generative modeling, including methods to enforce compatibility and use the determined distribution to fit and generate data. With the prior constraint removed, CyGen better fits data and captures more representative features, supported by experiments showing better generation and downstream classification performance.

A Survey on Neural Speech Synthesis

Text to speech (TTS), or speech synthesis, which aims to synthesize intelligible and natural speech given text, is a hot research topic in speech, language, and machine learning communities and has broad applications in the industry. As the development of deep learning and artificial intelligence, neural network-based TTS has significantly improved the quality of synthesized speech in recent years. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey on neural TTS, aiming to provide a good understanding of current research and future trends. We focus on the key components in neural TTS, including text analysis, acoustic models and vocoders, and several advanced topics, including fast TTS, low-resource TTS, robust TTS, expressive TTS, and adaptive TTS, etc. We further summarize resources related to TTS (e.g., datasets, opensource implementations) and discuss future research directions. This survey can serve both academic researchers and industry practitioners working on TTS.

A Survey on Low-Resource Neural Machine Translation

Neural approaches have achieved state-of-the-art accuracy on machine translation but suffer from the high cost of collecting large scale parallel data. Thus, a lot of research has been conducted for neural machine translation (NMT) with very limited parallel data, i.e., the low-resource setting. In this paper, we provide a survey for low-resource NMT and classify related works into three categories according to the auxiliary data they used: (1) exploiting monolingual data of source and/or target languages, (2) exploiting data from auxiliary languages, and (3) exploiting multi-modal data. We hope that our survey can help researchers to better understand this field and inspire them to design better algorithms, and help industry practitioners to choose appropriate algorithms for their applications.

AdaSpeech 3: Adaptive Text to Speech for Spontaneous Style

While recent text to speech (TTS) models perform very well in synthesizing reading-style (e.g., audiobook) speech, it is still challenging to synthesize spontaneous-style speech (e.g., podcast or conversation), mainly because of two reasons: 1) the lack of training data for spontaneous speech; 2) the difficulty in modeling the filled pauses (um and uh) and diverse rhythms in spontaneous speech. In this paper, we develop AdaSpeech 3, an adaptive TTS system that fine-tunes a well-trained reading-style TTS model for spontaneous-style speech. Specifically, 1) to insert filled pauses (FP) in the text sequence appropriately, we introduce an FP predictor to the TTS model; 2) to model the varying rhythms, we introduce a duration predictor based on mixture of experts (MoE), which contains three experts responsible for the generation of fast, medium and slow speech respectively, and fine-tune it as well as the pitch predictor for rhythm adaptation; 3) to adapt to other speaker timbre, we fine-tune some parameters in the decoder with few speech data. To address the challenge of lack of training data, we mine a spontaneous speech dataset to support our research this work and facilitate future research on spontaneous TTS. Experiments show that AdaSpeech 3 synthesizes speech with natural FP and rhythms in spontaneous styles, and achieves much better MOS and SMOS scores than previous adaptive TTS systems.

Causally Invariant Predictor with Shift-Robustness

This paper proposes an invariant causal predictor that is robust to distribution shift across domains and maximally reserves the transferable invariant information. Based on a disentangled causal factorization, we formulate the distribution shift as soft interventions in the system, which covers a wide range of cases for distribution shift as we do not make prior specifications on the causal structure or the intervened variables. Instead of imposing regularizations to constrain the invariance of the predictor, we propose to predict by the intervened conditional expectation based on the do-operator and then prove that it is invariant across domains. More importantly, we prove that the proposed predictor is the robust predictor that minimizes the worst-case quadratic loss among the distributions of all domains. For empirical learning, we propose an intuitive and flexible estimating method based on data regeneration and present a local causal discovery procedure to guide the regeneration step. The key idea is to regenerate data such that the regenerated distribution is compatible with the intervened graph, which allows us to incorporate standard supervised learning methods with the regenerated data. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficacy of our predictor in improving the predictive accuracy and robustness across domains.

DeepRapper: Neural Rap Generation with Rhyme and Rhythm Modeling

Rap generation, which aims to produce lyrics and corresponding singing beats, needs to model both rhymes and rhythms. Previous works for rap generation focused on rhyming lyrics but ignored rhythmic beats, which are important for rap performance. In this paper, we develop DeepRapper, a Transformer-based rap generation system that can model both rhymes and rhythms. Since there is no available rap dataset with rhythmic beats, we develop a data mining pipeline to collect a large-scale rap dataset, which includes a large number of rap songs with aligned lyrics and rhythmic beats. Second, we design a Transformer-based autoregressive language model which carefully models rhymes and rhythms. Specifically, we generate lyrics in the reverse order with rhyme representation and constraint for rhyme enhancement and insert a beat symbol into lyrics for rhythm/beat modeling. To our knowledge, DeepRapper is the first system to generate rap with both rhymes and rhythms. Both objective and subjective evaluations demonstrate that DeepRapper generates creative and high-quality raps with rhymes and rhythms. Code will be released on GitHub.

Supervised Off-Policy Ranking

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) leverages data generated by other policies to evaluate a target policy. Previous OPE methods mainly focus on precisely estimating the true performance of a policy. We observe that in many applications, (1) the end goal of OPE is to compare two or multiple candidate policies and choose a good one, which is actually a much simpler task than evaluating their true performance; and (2) there are usually multiple policies that have been deployed in real-world systems and thus whose true performance is known through serving real users. Inspired by the two observations, in this work, we define a new problem, supervised off-policy ranking (SOPR), which aims to rank a set of new/target policies based on supervised learning by leveraging off-policy data and policies with known performance. We further propose a method for supervised off-policy ranking that learns a policy scoring model by correctly ranking training policies with known performance rather than estimating their precise performance. Our method leverages logged states and policies to learn a Transformer based model that maps offline interaction data including logged states and the actions taken by a target policy on these states to a score. Experiments on different games, datasets, training policy sets, and test policy sets show that our method outperforms strong baseline OPE methods in terms of both rank correlation and performance gap between the truly best and the best of the ranked top three policies. Furthermore, our method is more stable than baseline methods.