Mind the GAP: Improving Robustness to Subpopulation Shifts with Group-Aware Priors

Machine learning models often perform poorly under subpopulation shifts in the data distribution. Developing methods that allow machine learning models to better generalize to such shifts is crucial for safe deployment in real-world settings. In this paper, we develop a family of group-aware prior (GAP) distributions over neural network parameters that explicitly favor models that generalize well under subpopulation shifts. We design a simple group-aware prior that only requires access to a small set of data with group information and demonstrate that training with this prior yields state-of-the-art performance -- even when only retraining the final layer of a previously trained non-robust model. Group aware-priors are conceptually simple, complementary to existing approaches, such as attribute pseudo labeling and data reweighting, and open up promising new avenues for harnessing Bayesian inference to enable robustness to subpopulation shifts.

Position Paper: Bayesian Deep Learning in the Age of Large-Scale AI

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

Continual Learning via Sequential Function-Space Variational Inference

Sequential Bayesian inference over predictive functions is a natural framework for continual learning from streams of data. However, applying it to neural networks has proved challenging in practice. Addressing the drawbacks of existing techniques, we propose an optimization objective derived by formulating continual learning as sequential function-space variational inference. In contrast to existing methods that regularize neural network parameters directly, this objective allows parameters to vary widely during training, enabling better adaptation to new tasks. Compared to objectives that directly regularize neural network predictions, the proposed objective allows for more flexible variational distributions and more effective regularization. We demonstrate that, across a range of task sequences, neural networks trained via sequential function-space variational inference achieve better predictive accuracy than networks trained with related methods while depending less on maintaining a set of representative points from previous tasks.

Tractable Function-Space Variational Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions. However, explicit inference over neural network parameters makes it difficult to incorporate meaningful prior information about the data-generating process into the model. In this paper, we pursue an alternative approach. Recognizing that the primary object of interest in most settings is the distribution over functions induced by the posterior distribution over neural network parameters, we frame Bayesian inference in neural networks explicitly as inferring a posterior distribution over functions and propose a scalable function-space variational inference method that allows incorporating prior information and results in reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We show that the proposed method leads to state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation and predictive performance on a range of prediction tasks and demonstrate that it performs well on a challenging safety-critical medical diagnosis task in which reliable uncertainty estimation is essential.

Visual Explanations of Image-Text Representations via Multi-Modal Information Bottleneck Attribution

Vision-language pretrained models have seen remarkable success, but their application to safety-critical settings is limited by their lack of interpretability. To improve the interpretability of vision-language models such as CLIP, we propose a multi-modal information bottleneck (M2IB) approach that learns latent representations that compress irrelevant information while preserving relevant visual and textual features. We demonstrate how M2IB can be applied to attribution analysis of vision-language pretrained models, increasing attribution accuracy and improving the interpretability of such models when applied to safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Crucially, unlike commonly used unimodal attribution methods, M2IB does not require ground truth labels, making it possible to audit representations of vision-language pretrained models when multiple modalities but no ground-truth data is available. Using CLIP as an example, we demonstrate the effectiveness of M2IB attribution and show that it outperforms gradient-based, perturbation-based, and attention-based attribution methods both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Non-Vacuous Generalization Bounds for Large Language Models

Modern language models can contain billions of parameters, raising the question of whether they can generalize beyond the training data or simply regurgitate their training corpora. We provide the first non-vacuous generalization bounds for pretrained large language models (LLMs), indicating that language models are capable of discovering regularities that generalize to unseen data. In particular, we derive a compression bound that is valid for the unbounded log-likelihood loss using prediction smoothing, and we extend the bound to handle subsampling, accelerating bound computation on massive datasets. To achieve the extreme level of compression required for non-vacuous generalization bounds, we devise SubLoRA, a low-dimensional non-linear parameterization. Using this approach, we find that larger models have better generalization bounds and are more compressible than smaller models.

Can Active Sampling Reduce Causal Confusion in Offline Reinforcement Learning?

Causal confusion is a phenomenon where an agent learns a policy that reflects imperfect spurious correlations in the data. Such a policy may falsely appear to be optimal during training if most of the training data contain such spurious correlations. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in domains such as robotics, with potentially large gaps between the open- and closed-loop performance of an agent. In such settings, causally confused models may appear to perform well according to open-loop metrics during training but fail catastrophically when deployed in the real world. In this paper, we study causal confusion in offline reinforcement learning. We investigate whether selectively sampling appropriate points from a dataset of demonstrations may enable offline reinforcement learning agents to disambiguate the underlying causal mechanisms of the environment, alleviate causal confusion in offline reinforcement learning, and produce a safer model for deployment. To answer this question, we consider a set of tailored offline reinforcement learning datasets that exhibit causal ambiguity and assess the ability of active sampling techniques to reduce causal confusion at evaluation. We provide empirical evidence that uniform and active sampling techniques are able to consistently reduce causal confusion as training progresses and that active sampling is able to do so significantly more efficiently than uniform sampling.

Function-Space Regularization in Neural Networks: A Probabilistic Perspective

Parameter-space regularization in neural network optimization is a fundamental tool for improving generalization. However, standard parameter-space regularization methods make it challenging to encode explicit preferences about desired predictive functions into neural network training. In this work, we approach regularization in neural networks from a probabilistic perspective and show that by viewing parameter-space regularization as specifying an empirical prior distribution over the model parameters, we can derive a probabilistically well-motivated regularization technique that allows explicitly encoding information about desired predictive functions into neural network training. This method -- which we refer to as function-space empirical Bayes (FSEB) -- includes both parameter- and function-space regularization, is mathematically simple, easy to implement, and incurs only minimal computational overhead compared to standard regularization techniques. We evaluate the utility of this regularization technique empirically and demonstrate that the proposed method leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection, highly-calibrated predictive uncertainty estimates, successful task adaption from pre-trained models, and improved generalization under covariate shift.

Should We Learn Most Likely Functions or Parameters?

Standard regularized training procedures correspond to maximizing a posterior distribution over parameters, known as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. However, model parameters are of interest only insomuch as they combine with the functional form of a model to provide a function that can make good predictions. Moreover, the most likely parameters under the parameter posterior do not generally correspond to the most likely function induced by the parameter posterior. In fact, we can re-parametrize a model such that any setting of parameters can maximize the parameter posterior. As an alternative, we investigate the benefits and drawbacks of directly estimating the most likely function implied by the model and the data. We show that this procedure leads to pathological solutions when using neural networks and prove conditions under which the procedure is well-behaved, as well as a scalable approximation. Under these conditions, we find that function-space MAP estimation can lead to flatter minima, better generalization, and improved robustness to overfitting.