Mastering the Game of Stratego with Model-Free Multiagent Reinforcement Learning

We introduce DeepNash, an autonomous agent capable of learning to play the imperfect information game Stratego from scratch, up to a human expert level. Stratego is one of the few iconic board games that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not yet mastered. This popular game has an enormous game tree on the order of $10^{535}$ nodes, i.e., $10^{175}$ times larger than that of Go. It has the additional complexity of requiring decision-making under imperfect information, similar to Texas hold'em poker, which has a significantly smaller game tree (on the order of $10^{164}$ nodes). Decisions in Stratego are made over a large number of discrete actions with no obvious link between action and outcome. Episodes are long, with often hundreds of moves before a player wins, and situations in Stratego can not easily be broken down into manageably-sized sub-problems as in poker. For these reasons, Stratego has been a grand challenge for the field of AI for decades, and existing AI methods barely reach an amateur level of play. DeepNash uses a game-theoretic, model-free deep reinforcement learning method, without search, that learns to master Stratego via self-play. The Regularised Nash Dynamics (R-NaD) algorithm, a key component of DeepNash, converges to an approximate Nash equilibrium, instead of 'cycling' around it, by directly modifying the underlying multi-agent learning dynamics. DeepNash beats existing state-of-the-art AI methods in Stratego and achieved a yearly (2022) and all-time top-3 rank on the Gravon games platform, competing with human expert players.

Game Plan: What AI can do for Football, and What Football can do for AI

The rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has opened unprecedented analytics possibilities in various team and individual sports, including baseball, basketball, and tennis. More recently, AI techniques have been applied to football, due to a huge increase in data collection by professional teams, increased computational power, and advances in machine learning, with the goal of better addressing new scientific challenges involved in the analysis of both individual players' and coordinated teams' behaviors. The research challenges associated with predictive and prescriptive football analytics require new developments and progress at the intersection of statistical learning, game theory, and computer vision. In this paper, we provide an overarching perspective highlighting how the combination of these fields, in particular, forms a unique microcosm for AI research, while offering mutual benefits for professional teams, spectators, and broadcasters in the years to come. We illustrate that this duality makes football analytics a game changer of tremendous value, in terms of not only changing the game of football itself, but also in terms of what this domain can mean for the field of AI. We review the state-of-the-art and exemplify the types of analysis enabled by combining the aforementioned fields, including illustrative examples of counterfactual analysis using predictive models, and the combination of game-theoretic analysis of penalty kicks with statistical learning of player attributes. We conclude by highlighting envisioned downstream impacts, including possibilities for extensions to other sports (real and virtual).

Navigating the Landscape of Games

Games are traditionally recognized as one of the key testbeds underlying progress in artificial intelligence (AI), aptly referred to as the "Drosophila of AI". Traditionally, researchers have focused on using games to build strong AI agents that, e.g., achieve human-level performance. This progress, however, also requires a classification of how 'interesting' a game is for an artificial agent. Tackling this latter question not only facilitates an understanding of the characteristics of learnt AI agents in games, but also helps to determine what game an AI should address next as part of its training. Here, we show how network measures applied to so-called response graphs of large-scale games enable the creation of a useful landscape of games, quantifying the relationships between games of widely varying sizes, characteristics, and complexities. We illustrate our findings in various domains, ranging from well-studied canonical games to significantly more complex empirical games capturing the performance of trained AI agents pitted against one another. Our results culminate in a demonstration of how one can leverage this information to automatically generate new and interesting games, including mixtures of empirical games synthesized from real world games.

From Poincaré Recurrence to Convergence in Imperfect Information Games: Finding Equilibrium via Regularization

In this paper we investigate the Follow the Regularized Leader dynamics in sequential imperfect information games (IIG). We generalize existing results of Poincar\'e recurrence from normal-form games to zero-sum two-player imperfect information games and other sequential game settings. We then investigate how adapting the reward (by adding a regularization term) of the game can give strong convergence guarantees in monotone games. We continue by showing how this reward adaptation technique can be leveraged to build algorithms that converge exactly to the Nash equilibrium. Finally, we show how these insights can be directly used to build state-of-the-art model-free algorithms for zero-sum two-player Imperfect Information Games (IIG).

Hindsight Credit Assignment

We consider the problem of efficient credit assignment in reinforcement learning. In order to efficiently and meaningfully utilize new data, we propose to explicitly assign credit to past decisions based on the likelihood of them having led to the observed outcome. This approach uses new information in hindsight, rather than employing foresight. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that value functions can be rewritten through this lens, yielding a new family of algorithms. We study the properties of these algorithms, and empirically show that they successfully address important credit assignment challenges, through a set of illustrative tasks.

Multiagent Evaluation under Incomplete Information

This paper investigates the evaluation of learned multiagent strategies in the incomplete information setting, which plays a critical role in ranking and training of agents. Traditionally, researchers have relied on Elo ratings for this purpose, with recent works also using methods based on Nash equilibria. Unfortunately, Elo is unable to handle intransitive agent interactions, and other techniques are restricted to zero-sum, two-player settings or are limited by the fact that the Nash equilibrium is intractable to compute. Recently, a ranking method called {\alpha}-Rank, relying on a new graph-based game-theoretic solution concept, was shown to tractably apply to general games. However, evaluations based on Elo or {\alpha}-Rank typically assume noise-free game outcomes, despite the data often being collected from noisy simulations, making this assumption unrealistic in practice. This paper investigates multiagent evaluation in the incomplete information regime, involving general-sum many-player games with noisy outcomes. We derive sample complexity guarantees required to confidently rank agents in this setting. We propose adaptive algorithms for accurate ranking, provide correctness and sample complexity guarantees, then introduce a means of connecting uncertainties in noisy match outcomes to uncertainties in rankings. We evaluate the performance of these approaches in several domains, including Bernoulli games, a soccer meta-game, and Kuhn poker.

A Generalized Training Approach for Multiagent Learning

This paper investigates a population-based training regime based on game-theoretic principles called Policy-Spaced Response Oracles (PSRO). PSRO is general in the sense that it (1) encompasses well-known algorithms such as fictitious play and double oracle as special cases, and (2) in principle applies to general-sum, many-player games. Despite this, prior studies of PSRO have been focused on two-player zero-sum games, a regime wherein Nash equilibria are tractably computable. In moving from two-player zero-sum games to more general settings, computation of Nash equilibria quickly becomes infeasible. Here, we extend the theoretical underpinnings of PSRO by considering an alternative solution concept, {\alpha}-Rank, which is unique (thus faces no equilibrium selection issues, unlike Nash) and tractable to compute in general-sum, many-player settings. We establish convergence guarantees in several games classes, and identify links between Nash equilibria and {\alpha}-Rank. We demonstrate the competitive performance of {\alpha}-Rank-based PSRO against an exact Nash solver-based PSRO in 2-player Kuhn and Leduc Poker. We then go beyond the reach of prior PSRO applications by considering 3- to 5-player poker games, yielding instances where {\alpha}-Rank achieves faster convergence than approximate Nash solvers, thus establishing it as a favorable general games solver. We also carry out an initial empirical validation in MuJoCo soccer, illustrating the feasibility of the proposed approach in another complex domain.

Neural Replicator Dynamics

In multiagent learning, agents interact in inherently nonstationary environments due to their concurrent policy updates. It is, therefore, paramount to develop and analyze algorithms that learn effectively despite these nonstationarities. A number of works have successfully conducted this analysis under the lens of evolutionary game theory (EGT), wherein a population of individuals interact and evolve based on biologically-inspired operators. These studies have mainly focused on establishing connections to value-iteration based approaches in stateless or tabular games. We extend this line of inquiry to formally establish links between EGT and policy gradient (PG) methods, which have been extensively applied in single and multiagent learning. We pinpoint weaknesses of the commonly-used softmax PG algorithm in adversarial and nonstationary settings and contrast PG's behavior to that predicted by replicator dynamics (RD), a central model in EGT. We consequently provide theoretical results that establish links between EGT and PG methods, then derive Neural Replicator Dynamics (NeuRD), a parameterized version of RD that constitutes a novel method with several advantages. First, as NeuRD reduces to the well-studied no-regret Hedge algorithm in the tabular setting, it inherits no-regret guarantees that enable convergence to equilibria in games. Second, NeuRD is shown to be more adaptive to nonstationarity, in comparison to PG, when learning in canonical games and imperfect information benchmarks including Poker. Thirdly, modifying any PG-based algorithm to use the NeuRD update rule is straightforward and incurs no added computational costs. Finally, while single-agent learning is not the main focus of the paper, we verify empirically that NeuRD is competitive in these settings with a recent baseline algorithm.

The Termination Critic

In this work, we consider the problem of autonomously discovering behavioral abstractions, or options, for reinforcement learning agents. We propose an algorithm that focuses on the termination condition, as opposed to -- as is common -- the policy. The termination condition is usually trained to optimize a control objective: an option ought to terminate if another has better value. We offer a different, information-theoretic perspective, and propose that terminations should focus instead on the compressibility of the option's encoding -- arguably a key reason for using abstractions. To achieve this algorithmically, we leverage the classical options framework, and learn the option transition model as a "critic" for the termination condition. Using this model, we derive gradients that optimize the desired criteria. We show that the resulting options are non-trivial, intuitively meaningful, and useful for learning and planning.

The Uncertainty Bellman Equation and Exploration

We consider the exploration/exploitation problem in reinforcement learning. For exploitation, it is well known that the Bellman equation connects the value at any time-step to the expected value at subsequent time-steps. In this paper we consider a similar \textit{uncertainty} Bellman equation (UBE), which connects the uncertainty at any time-step to the expected uncertainties at subsequent time-steps, thereby extending the potential exploratory benefit of a policy beyond individual time-steps. We prove that the unique fixed point of the UBE yields an upper bound on the variance of the posterior distribution of the Q-values induced by any policy. This bound can be much tighter than traditional count-based bonuses that compound standard deviation rather than variance. Importantly, and unlike several existing approaches to optimism, this method scales naturally to large systems with complex generalization. Substituting our UBE-exploration strategy for $\epsilon$-greedy improves DQN performance on 51 out of 57 games in the Atari suite.