Analytic Planning under Uncertainty with Moment Closure

Effective model-based reinforcement learning in stochastic environments requires planning that accounts for predictive uncertainty. Propagating full state distributions analytically offers a principled way to do this, but has traditionally required restrictive policy or reward structures to remain tractable. Consequently, modern deep reinforcement learning has largely retreated to either stochastic sampling, which introduces significant target variance, or deterministic point estimates that ignore predictive covariance entirely. We investigate whether distribution-aware planning is possible without these constraints. Using a quadratic action-value parameterization, we first reduce the Bellman backup to an expectation over the state-value function alone; the key idea is then a compatibility principle between the predictive transition distribution and the value function class, under which this expectation is analytic in the distribution's moments. We instantiate this principle with a Gaussian transition model paired with a radial-basis value function, yielding a closed-form backup that propagates both predictive mean and covariance. Empirically, our approach reduces target variance and yields well-calibrated predictive uncertainty under stochastic observations in continuous control, providing a principled framework for planning with learned distribution models.

Adaptive Multi-Horizon Reinforcement Learning

Effective decision-making in complex and changing environments requires balancing short-term and long-term consequences. In reinforcement learning (RL), this trade-off is typically controlled through a fixed discount factor, which imposes a single exponentially discounted temporal horizon. However, biological agents exhibit flexible and adaptive temporal discounting, suggesting that effective planning requires multiple timescales. Here, we propose a multi-horizon approach that adaptively selects and combines temporal horizons, enabling robust adaptation to changes in reward structure without manual discount-factor tuning. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for continual learning scenarios involving task switches and varying environmental configurations. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach identifies effective discount factors across a range of MiniGrid environments, including continual settings composed of three sequentially changing tasks. These results suggest that adaptive temporal discounting can improve parameter efficiency and enhance adaptability in both artificial and biologically inspired learning systems.

To Retain or to Adapt? Generalizing Continual Learning

The Continual Learning (CL) literature has long been driven by the goal of mitigating catastrophic forgetting. This objective rests on a pervasive, often unstated assumption: that a lifelong learner should approximate the Joint-Task Learning (JTL) solution and retain all previously acquired knowledge. We challenge this retention-centered premise, arguing that in non-stationary environments prioritizing retention can impede real-time adaptation. Shifting the focus to the Average Lifelong Error (ALE), we formalize CL as an online optimization problem governed by the interaction between environmental and learning dynamics. We introduce Transfer Efficiency as a quantitative measure of the tension between Instability, the bias inherited from conflicting past experience, and Transient Error, the optimization cost of learning new tasks from scratch. Under mild convergence conditions, holding across linear and neural network models, this decomposition yields a Critical Task Duration: a closed-form threshold beyond which historical knowledge transitions from a warm-start advantage to an optimization liability whenever retention induces a positive stationary bias. We validate these theoretical predictions on continual image classification and reinforcement learning benchmarks. Finally, by connecting continual learning to the online learning framework of predictable sequences, we show that JTL is only one instance of a broader family of objectives, and we propose a new general class of continual learning algorithms, which we call Predictive Continual Learning. Predictive CL algorithms optimize expected future performance under an explicit, dynamically updated model of future tasks. As a proof of concept, we analyze a Window algorithm that interpolates between JTL and Independent-Task Learning (ITL), outperforming both under controlled distributional drift.

Human Adults and LLMs as Scientists: Who Benefits from Active Exploration?

A long-standing finding in the causal learning literature is that adults struggle to identify conjunctive causal rules, where an effect requires the simultaneous presence of multiple causes, while performing better in disjunctive settings. However, most demonstrations of this ``conjunctive handicap'' rely on passive observation paradigms with limited evidence, where learners have no control over evidence generation. This paper asks whether this bias persists when adults are granted agency through active exploration. Using a modified ``blicket detector'' task, adult participants freely intervened to identify causal objects under conjunctive or disjunctive rule structures. We show that active exploration substantially improves adults' conjunctive causal reasoning, although conjunctive rules still require more tests to infer than disjunctive rules. We further compare human performance to a range of large language models in the same setting. While some state-of-the-art models approach human-level performance on hypothesis inference accuracy, they often exhibit less efficient exploration strategies and similar conjunctive-disjunctive performance gaps.

Using Reward Uncertainty to Induce Diverse Behaviour in Reinforcement Learning

Classical reinforcement learning (RL) typically seeks a deterministic policy that maximizes the expected sum of a scalar reward. Yet, modern applications such as language model fine-tuning or scientific discovery demand diversity. Existing remedies such as entropy regularization or diversity bonuses often require fragile trade-offs that sacrifice performance for stochasticity or rely on heuristic metrics that can misalign policy rankings. We argue that diversity is more naturally understood as the rational response to uncertainty in the reward. When the reward function is not perfectly known--as is the case with ambiguous preferences or imperfect reward models--committing to a single action can be sub-optimal. Building on this, we propose a fundamental reformulation of the RL objective by replacing the scalar reward with a distribution over reward functions, and applying a non-linear objective over sets of actions. The result is a framework in which calibrated behavioural diversity emerges naturally, remains controllable through the reward function distribution, and is obtained without sacrificing expected reward. Focusing on the contextual bandit setting, we derive a principled gradient estimator for this objective and prove that our formulation naturally generalizes both vanilla policy gradient and more recently developed action-set approaches. Our empirical results demonstrate that this framework offers a robust and theoretically grounded alternative for complex RL tasks where the traditional formulation of the problem fails to induce the desired breadth of agent behaviour.

Reinforcement Learning with Pairwise Preferences in Long-Term Decision Problems

Reinforcement learning problems typically define the goal as maximizing the expected value of a scalar reward function. But, pairwise preferences are often easier to specify than scalar rewards, and they express certain goals that scalar rewards cannot. Methods for reinforcement learning with pairwise preferences have thus received growing interest. Unfortunately, these methods are inefficient in problems with long time horizons, and they lack guarantees on the performance of Markov policies relative to history-dependent policies, which bridge the theory and practice of reinforcement learning. We therefore propose the \textit{Markov decision contest} as a new problem model for reinforcement learning with pairwise preferences. We prove that stationary Markov policies are optimal among all history-dependent policies, that solving a Markov decision contest exactly is in P, and that a simple iterative algorithm converges to an optimal policy at a sublinear rate. Lastly, in a set of high-dimensional decision problems with long time horizons, we show that our approximate algorithm is significantly more learning-efficient than prior work.

Balancing Plasticity and Stability with Fast and Slow Successor Features

A hallmark of intelligence is the ability to adapt in non-stationary environments, yet deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents often struggle in such settings. Prior studies introduce non-stationarity through abrupt shifts in features or dynamics, whereas real-world environments often evolve gradually through continual drift. This distinction has important implications for the "stability-plasticity dilemma" in RL, as abrupt task changes may demand more plasticity than naturalistic settings. To address this, we modify existing 3D Miniworld and MuJoCo environments to incorporate naturalistic, continual non-stationarity, and use them to examine how stability and adaptation affect performance under continuous environmental change. We find that methods favoring stability, such as synaptic consolidation, outperform approaches focused on plasticity, such as parameters resetting. Motivated by this result, and prior evidence that Successor Features (SFs) reduce interference, we investigate whether SFs are better consolidation targets than Q-values. Across both environments, applying neuro-inspired synaptic consolidation to SFs yields superior performance on continually changing settings. Moreover, consolidation is most effective when SFs are stabilized across multiple timescales, which capture complementary aspects of gradual environmental change. Together, these results suggest that stability is more critical in continual learning when changes are gradual, and that multi-timescale consolidation of predictive representations is an effective approach.

Fluid-Agent Reinforcement Learning

The primary focus of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has been to study interactions among a fixed number of agents embedded in an environment. However, in the real world, the number of agents is neither fixed nor known a priori. Moreover, an agent can decide to create other agents (for example, a cell may divide, or a company may spin off a division). In this paper, we propose a framework that allows agents to create other agents; we call this a fluid-agent environment. We present game-theoretic solution concepts for fluid-agent games and empirically evaluate the performance of several MARL algorithms within this framework. Our experiments include fluid variants of established benchmarks such as Predator-Prey and Level-Based Foraging, where agents can dynamically spawn, as well as a new environment we introduce that highlights how fluidity can unlock novel solution strategies beyond those observed in fixed-population settings. We demonstrate that this framework yields agent teams that adjust their size dynamically to match environmental demands.

Affordances Enable Partial World Modeling with LLMs

Full models of the world require complex knowledge of immense detail. While pre-trained large models have been hypothesized to contain similar knowledge due to extensive pre-training on vast amounts of internet scale data, using them directly in a search procedure is inefficient and inaccurate. Conversely, partial models focus on making high quality predictions for a subset of state and actions: those linked through affordances that achieve user intents~\citep{khetarpal2020can}. Can we posit large models as partial world models? We provide a formal answer to this question, proving that agents achieving task-agnostic, language-conditioned intents necessarily possess predictive partial-world models informed by affordances. In the multi-task setting, we introduce distribution-robust affordances and show that partial models can be extracted to significantly improve search efficiency. Empirical evaluations in tabletop robotics tasks demonstrate that our affordance-aware partial models reduce the search branching factor and achieve higher rewards compared to full world models.

On the geometry and topology of representations: the manifolds of modular addition

The Clock and Pizza interpretations, associated with architectures differing in either uniform or learnable attention, were introduced to argue that different architectural designs can yield distinct circuits for modular addition. In this work, we show that this is not the case, and that both uniform attention and trainable attention architectures implement the same algorithm via topologically and geometrically equivalent representations. Our methodology goes beyond the interpretation of individual neurons and weights. Instead, we identify all of the neurons corresponding to each learned representation and then study the collective group of neurons as one entity. This method reveals that each learned representation is a manifold that we can study utilizing tools from topology. Based on this insight, we can statistically analyze the learned representations across hundreds of circuits to demonstrate the similarity between learned modular addition circuits that arise naturally from common deep learning paradigms.