REPLAY: Modeling Time-Varying Temporal Regularities of Human Mobility for Location Prediction over Sparse Trajectories

Location prediction forecasts a user's location based on historical user mobility traces. To tackle the intrinsic sparsity issue of real-world user mobility traces, spatiotemporal contexts have been shown as significantly useful. Existing solutions mostly incorporate spatiotemporal distances between locations in mobility traces, either by feeding them as additional inputs to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) or by using them to search for informative past hidden states for prediction. However, such distance-based methods fail to capture the time-varying temporal regularities of human mobility, where human mobility is often more regular in the morning than in other periods, for example; this suggests the usefulness of the actual timestamps besides the temporal distances. Against this background, we propose REPLAY, a general RNN architecture learning to capture the time-varying temporal regularities for location prediction. Specifically, REPLAY not only resorts to the spatiotemporal distances in sparse trajectories to search for the informative past hidden states, but also accommodates the time-varying temporal regularities by incorporating smoothed timestamp embeddings using Gaussian weighted averaging with timestamp-specific learnable bandwidths, which can flexibly adapt to the temporal regularities of different strengths across different timestamps. Our extensive evaluation compares REPLAY against a sizable collection of state-of-the-art techniques on two real-world datasets. Results show that REPLAY consistently and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 7.7\%-10.9\% in the location prediction task, and the bandwidths reveal interesting patterns of the time-varying temporal regularities.

Addressing Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecasting with Instance Normalization Flows

Due to non-stationarity of time series, the distribution shift problem largely hinders the performance of time series forecasting. Existing solutions either fail for the shifts beyond simple statistics or the limited compatibility with forecasting models. In this paper, we propose a general decoupled formulation for time series forecasting, with no reliance on fixed statistics and no restriction on forecasting architectures. Then, we make such a formulation formalized into a bi-level optimization problem, to enable the joint learning of the transformation (outer loop) and forecasting (inner loop). Moreover, the special requirements of expressiveness and bi-direction for the transformation motivate us to propose instance normalization flows (IN-Flow), a novel invertible network for time series transformation. Extensive experiments demonstrate our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on both synthetic and real-world data.

Spatial-Temporal Interplay in Human Mobility: A Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning Approach with Hypergraph Representation

In the realm of human mobility, the decision-making process for selecting the next-visit location is intricately influenced by a trade-off between spatial and temporal constraints, which are reflective of individual needs and preferences. This trade-off, however, varies across individuals, making the modeling of these spatial-temporal dynamics a formidable challenge. To address the problem, in this work, we introduce the "Spatial-temporal Induced Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning" (STI-HRL) framework, for capturing the interplay between spatial and temporal factors in human mobility decision-making. Specifically, STI-HRL employs a two-tiered decision-making process: the low-level focuses on disentangling spatial and temporal preferences using dedicated agents, while the high-level integrates these considerations to finalize the decision. To complement the hierarchical decision setting, we construct a hypergraph to organize historical data, encapsulating the multi-aspect semantics of human mobility. We propose a cross-channel hypergraph embedding module to learn the representations as the states to facilitate the decision-making cycle. Our extensive experiments on two real-world datasets validate the superiority of STI-HRL over state-of-the-art methods in predicting users' next visits across various performance metrics.

FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspective

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Frequency-domain MLPs are More Effective Learners in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and {superior performance}. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods.

Dual-stage Flows-based Generative Modeling for Traceable Urban Planning

Urban planning, which aims to design feasible land-use configurations for target areas, has become increasingly essential due to the high-speed urbanization process in the modern era. However, the traditional urban planning conducted by human designers can be a complex and onerous task. Thanks to the advancement of deep learning algorithms, researchers have started to develop automated planning techniques. While these models have exhibited promising results, they still grapple with a couple of unresolved limitations: 1) Ignoring the relationship between urban functional zones and configurations and failing to capture the relationship among different functional zones. 2) Less interpretable and stable generation process. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel generative framework based on normalizing flows, namely Dual-stage Urban Flows (DSUF) framework. Specifically, the first stage is to utilize zone-level urban planning flows to generate urban functional zones based on given surrounding contexts and human guidance. Then we employ an Information Fusion Module to capture the relationship among functional zones and fuse the information of different aspects. The second stage is to use configuration-level urban planning flows to obtain land-use configurations derived from fused information. We design several experiments to indicate that our framework can outperform compared to other generative models for the urban planning task.

Temporal Inductive Path Neural Network for Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) is an extension of traditional Knowledge Graph (KG) that incorporates the dimension of time. Reasoning on TKGs is a crucial task that aims to predict future facts based on historical occurrences. The key challenge lies in uncovering structural dependencies within historical subgraphs and temporal patterns. Most existing approaches model TKGs relying on entity modeling, as nodes in the graph play a crucial role in knowledge representation. However, the real-world scenario often involves an extensive number of entities, with new entities emerging over time. This makes it challenging for entity-dependent methods to cope with extensive volumes of entities, and effectively handling newly emerging entities also becomes a significant challenge. Therefore, we propose Temporal Inductive Path Neural Network (TiPNN), which models historical information in an entity-independent perspective. Specifically, TiPNN adopts a unified graph, namely history temporal graph, to comprehensively capture and encapsulate information from history. Subsequently, we utilize the defined query-aware temporal paths to model historical path information related to queries on history temporal graph for the reasoning. Extensive experiments illustrate that the proposed model not only attains significant performance enhancements but also handles inductive settings, while additionally facilitating the provision of reasoning evidence through history temporal graphs.

Deep Generative Imputation Model for Missing Not At Random Data

Data analysis usually suffers from the Missing Not At Random (MNAR) problem, where the cause of the value missing is not fully observed. Compared to the naive Missing Completely At Random (MCAR) problem, it is more in line with the realistic scenario whereas more complex and challenging. Existing statistical methods model the MNAR mechanism by different decomposition of the joint distribution of the complete data and the missing mask. But we empirically find that directly incorporating these statistical methods into deep generative models is sub-optimal. Specifically, it would neglect the confidence of the reconstructed mask during the MNAR imputation process, which leads to insufficient information extraction and less-guaranteed imputation quality. In this paper, we revisit the MNAR problem from a novel perspective that the complete data and missing mask are two modalities of incomplete data on an equal footing. Along with this line, we put forward a generative-model-specific joint probability decomposition method, conjunction model, to represent the distributions of two modalities in parallel and extract sufficient information from both complete data and missing mask. Taking a step further, we exploit a deep generative imputation model, namely GNR, to process the real-world missing mechanism in the latent space and concurrently impute the incomplete data and reconstruct the missing mask. The experimental results show that our GNR surpasses state-of-the-art MNAR baselines with significant margins (averagely improved from 9.9% to 18.8% in RMSE) and always gives a better mask reconstruction accuracy which makes the imputation more principle.

Adaptive Path-Memory Network for Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning

Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) reasoning aims to predict the future missing facts based on historical information and has gained increasing research interest recently. Lots of works have been made to model the historical structural and temporal characteristics for the reasoning task. Most existing works model the graph structure mainly depending on entity representation. However, the magnitude of TKG entities in real-world scenarios is considerable, and an increasing number of new entities will arise as time goes on. Therefore, we propose a novel architecture modeling with relation feature of TKG, namely aDAptivE path-MemOry Network (DaeMon), which adaptively models the temporal path information between query subject and each object candidate across history time. It models the historical information without depending on entity representation. Specifically, DaeMon uses path memory to record the temporal path information derived from path aggregation unit across timeline considering the memory passing strategy between adjacent timestamps. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world TKG datasets demonstrate that our proposed model obtains substantial performance improvement and outperforms the state-of-the-art up to 4.8% absolute in MRR.

Dish-TS: A General Paradigm for Alleviating Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecasting

The distribution shift in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), indicating series distribution changes over time, largely hinders the performance of TSF models. Existing works towards distribution shift in time series are mostly limited in the quantification of distribution and, more importantly, overlook the potential shift between lookback and horizon windows. To address above challenges, we systematically summarize the distribution shift in TSF into two categories. Regarding lookback windows as input-space and horizon windows as output-space, there exist (i) intra-space shift, that the distribution within the input-space keeps shifted over time, and (ii) inter-space shift, that the distribution is shifted between input-space and output-space. Then we introduce, Dish-TS, a general neural paradigm for alleviating distribution shift in TSF. Specifically, for better distribution estimation, we propose the coefficient net (CONET), which can be any neural architectures, to map input sequences into learnable distribution coefficients. To relieve intra-space and inter-space shift, we organize Dish-TS as a Dual-CONET framework to separately learn the distribution of input- and output-space, which naturally captures the distribution difference of two spaces. In addition, we introduce a more effective training strategy for intractable CONET learning. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on several datasets coupled with different state-of-the-art forecasting models. Experimental results show Dish-TS consistently boosts them with a more than 20% average improvement. Code is available.