Augmenting Minds or Automating Skills: The Differential Role of Human Capital in Generative AI's Impact on Creative Tasks

Generative AI is rapidly reshaping creative work, raising critical questions about its beneficiaries and societal implications. This study challenges prevailing assumptions by exploring how generative AI interacts with diverse forms of human capital in creative tasks. Through two random controlled experiments in flash fiction writing and song composition, we uncover a paradox: while AI democratizes access to creative tools, it simultaneously amplifies cognitive inequalities. Our findings reveal that AI enhances general human capital (cognitive abilities and education) by facilitating adaptability and idea integration but diminishes the value of domain-specific expertise. We introduce a novel theoretical framework that merges human capital theory with the automation-augmentation perspective, offering a nuanced understanding of human-AI collaboration. This framework elucidates how AI shifts the locus of creative advantage from specialized expertise to broader cognitive adaptability. Contrary to the notion of AI as a universal equalizer, our work highlights its potential to exacerbate disparities in skill valuation, reshaping workplace hierarchies and redefining the nature of creativity in the AI era. These insights advance theories of human capital and automation while providing actionable guidance for organizations navigating AI integration amidst workforce inequalities.

FAS for Secure and Covert Communications

This letter considers a fluid antenna system (FAS)-aided secure and covert communication system, where the transmitter adjusts multiple fluid antennas' positions to achieve secure and covert transmission under the threat of an eavesdropper and the detection of a warden. This letter aims to maximize the secrecy rate while satisfying the covertness constraint. Unfortunately, the optimization problem is non-convex due to the coupled variables. To tackle this, we propose an alternating optimization (AO) algorithm to alternatively optimize the optimization variables in an iterative manner. In particular, we use a penalty-based method and the majorization-minimization (MM) algorithm to optimize the transmit beamforming and fluid antennas' positions, respectively. Simulation results show that FAS can significantly improve the performance of secrecy and covertness compared to the fixed-position antenna (FPA)-based schemes.

FAS-Driven Spectrum Sensing for Cognitive Radio Networks

Cognitive radio (CR) networks face significant challenges in spectrum sensing, especially under spectrum scarcity. Fluid antenna systems (FAS) can offer an unorthodox solution due to their ability to dynamically adjust antenna positions for improved channel gain. In this letter, we study a FAS-driven CR setup where a secondary user (SU) adjusts the positions of fluid antennas to detect signals from the primary user (PU). We aim to maximize the detection probability under the constraints of the false alarm probability and the received beamforming of the SU. To address this problem, we first derive a closed-form expression for the optimal detection threshold and reformulate the problem to find its solution. Then an alternating optimization (AO) scheme is proposed to decompose the problem into several sub-problems, addressing both the received beamforming and the antenna positions at the SU. The beamforming subproblem is addressed using a closed-form solution, while the fluid antenna positions are solved by successive convex approximation (SCA). Simulation results reveal that the proposed algorithm provides significant improvements over traditional fixed-position antenna (FPA) schemes in terms of spectrum sensing performance.

EffiCANet: Efficient Time Series Forecasting with Convolutional Attention

The exponential growth of multivariate time series data from sensor networks in domains like industrial monitoring and smart cities requires efficient and accurate forecasting models. Current deep learning methods often fail to adequately capture long-range dependencies and complex inter-variable relationships, especially under real-time processing constraints. These limitations arise as many models are optimized for either short-term forecasting with limited receptive fields or long-term accuracy at the cost of efficiency. Additionally, dynamic and intricate interactions between variables in real-world data further complicate modeling efforts. To address these limitations, we propose EffiCANet, an Efficient Convolutional Attention Network designed to enhance forecasting accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. EffiCANet integrates three key components: (1) a Temporal Large-kernel Decomposed Convolution (TLDC) module that captures long-term temporal dependencies while reducing computational overhead; (2) an Inter-Variable Group Convolution (IVGC) module that captures complex and evolving relationships among variables; and (3) a Global Temporal-Variable Attention (GTVA) mechanism that prioritizes critical temporal and inter-variable features. Extensive evaluations across nine benchmark datasets show that EffiCANet achieves the maximum reduction of 10.02% in MAE over state-of-the-art models, while cutting computational costs by 26.2% relative to conventional large-kernel convolution methods, thanks to its efficient decomposition strategy.

Rethinking the Uncertainty: A Critical Review and Analysis in the Era of Large Language Models

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial. Current methods often struggle to accurately identify, measure, and address the true uncertainty, with many focusing primarily on estimating model confidence. This discrepancy is largely due to an incomplete understanding of where, when, and how uncertainties are injected into models. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework specifically designed to identify and understand the types and sources of uncertainty, aligned with the unique characteristics of LLMs. Our framework enhances the understanding of the diverse landscape of uncertainties by systematically categorizing and defining each type, establishing a solid foundation for developing targeted methods that can precisely quantify these uncertainties. We also provide a detailed introduction to key related concepts and examine the limitations of current methods in mission-critical and safety-sensitive applications. The paper concludes with a perspective on future directions aimed at enhancing the reliability and practical adoption of these methods in real-world scenarios.

TimeMixer++: A General Time Series Pattern Machine for Universal Predictive Analysis

Time series analysis plays a critical role in numerous applications, supporting tasks such as forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. In this work, we present the time series pattern machine (TSPM), a model designed to excel in a broad range of time series tasks through powerful representation and pattern extraction capabilities. Traditional time series models often struggle to capture universal patterns, limiting their effectiveness across diverse tasks. To address this, we define multiple scales in the time domain and various resolutions in the frequency domain, employing various mixing strategies to extract intricate, task-adaptive time series patterns. Specifically, we introduce a general-purpose TSPM that processes multi-scale time series using (1) multi-resolution time imaging (MRTI), (2) time image decomposition (TID), (3) multi-scale mixing (MCM), and (4) multi-resolution mixing (MRM) to extract comprehensive temporal patterns. MRTI transforms multi-scale time series into multi-resolution time images, capturing patterns across both temporal and frequency domains. TID leverages dual-axis attention to extract seasonal and trend patterns, while MCM hierarchically aggregates these patterns across scales. MRM adaptively integrates all representations across resolutions. This method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 8 time series analytical tasks, consistently surpassing both general-purpose and task-specific models. Our work marks a promising step toward the next generation of TSPMs, paving the way for further advancements in time series analysis.

Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Time Series Foundation Models

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Towards Universal Large-Scale Foundational Model for Natural Gas Demand Forecasting

In the context of global energy strategy, accurate natural gas demand forecasting is crucial for ensuring efficient resource allocation and operational planning. Traditional forecasting methods struggle to cope with the growing complexity and variability of gas consumption patterns across diverse industries and commercial sectors. To address these challenges, we propose the first foundation model specifically tailored for natural gas demand forecasting. Foundation models, known for their ability to generalize across tasks and datasets, offer a robust solution to the limitations of traditional methods, such as the need for separate models for different customer segments and their limited generalization capabilities. Our approach leverages contrastive learning to improve prediction accuracy in real-world scenarios, particularly by tackling issues such as noise in historical consumption data and the potential misclassification of similar data samples, which can lead to degradation in the quaility of the representation and thus the accuracy of downstream forecasting tasks. By integrating advanced noise filtering techniques within the contrastive learning framework, our model enhances the quality of learned representations, leading to more accurate predictions. Furthermore, the model undergoes industry-specific fine-tuning during pretraining, enabling it to better capture the unique characteristics of gas consumption across various sectors. We conducted extensive experiments using a large-scale dataset from ENN Group, which includes data from over 10,000 industrial, commercial, and welfare-related customers across multiple regions. Our model outperformed existing state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating a relative improvement in MSE by 3.68\% and in MASE by 6.15\% compared to the best available model.

Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

BCRLB Under the Fusion Extended Kalman Filter

In the process of tracking multiple point targets in space using radar, since the targets are spatially well separated, the data between them will not be confused. Therefore, the multi-target tracking problem can be transformed into a single-target tracking problem. However, the data measured by radar nodes contains noise, clutter, and false targets, making it difficult for the fusion center to directly establish the association between radar measurements and real targets. To address this issue, the Probabilistic Data Association (PDA) algorithm is used to calculate the association probability between each radar measurement and the target, and the measurements are fused based on these probabilities. Finally, an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to predict the target states. Additionally, we derive the Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) under the PDA fusion framework.