Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlook

Temporal data, notably time series and spatio-temporal data, are prevalent in real-world applications. They capture dynamic system measurements and are produced in vast quantities by both physical and virtual sensors. Analyzing these data types is vital to harnessing the rich information they encompass and thus benefits a wide range of downstream tasks. Recent advances in large language and other foundational models have spurred increased use of these models in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. Such methodologies not only enable enhanced pattern recognition and reasoning across diverse domains but also lay the groundwork for artificial general intelligence capable of comprehending and processing common temporal data. In this survey, we offer a comprehensive and up-to-date review of large models tailored (or adapted) for time series and spatio-temporal data, spanning four key facets: data types, model categories, model scopes, and application areas/tasks. Our objective is to equip practitioners with the knowledge to develop applications and further research in this underexplored domain. We primarily categorize the existing literature into two major clusters: large models for time series analysis (LM4TS) and spatio-temporal data mining (LM4STD). On this basis, we further classify research based on model scopes (i.e., general vs. domain-specific) and application areas/tasks. We also provide a comprehensive collection of pertinent resources, including datasets, model assets, and useful tools, categorized by mainstream applications. This survey coalesces the latest strides in large model-centric research on time series and spatio-temporal data, underscoring the solid foundations, current advances, practical applications, abundant resources, and future research opportunities.

Proactive Monitoring via Jamming in Fluid Antenna Systems

This paper investigates the efficacy of utilizing fluid antenna system (FAS) at a legitimate monitor to oversee suspicious communication. The monitor switches the antenna position to minimize its outage probability for enhancing the monitoring performance. Our objective is to maximize the average monitoring rate, whose expression involves the integral of the first-order Marcum $Q$ function. The optimization problem, as initially posed, is non-convex owing to its objective function. Nevertheless, upon substituting with an upper bound, we provide a theoretical foundation confirming the existence of a unique optimal solution for the modified problem, achievable efficiently by the bisection search method. Furthermore, we also introduce a locally closed-form optimal resolution for maximizing the average monitoring rate. Empirical evaluations confirm that the proposed schemes outperform conventional benchmarks considerably.

Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Practical Membership Inference Attacks Against Large-Scale Multi-Modal Models: A Pilot Study

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to infer whether a data point has been used to train a machine learning model. These attacks can be employed to identify potential privacy vulnerabilities and detect unauthorized use of personal data. While MIAs have been traditionally studied for simple classification models, recent advancements in multi-modal pre-training, such as CLIP, have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot performance across a range of computer vision tasks. However, the sheer scale of data and models presents significant computational challenges for performing the attacks. This paper takes a first step towards developing practical MIAs against large-scale multi-modal models. We introduce a simple baseline strategy by thresholding the cosine similarity between text and image features of a target point and propose further enhancing the baseline by aggregating cosine similarity across transformations of the target. We also present a new weakly supervised attack method that leverages ground-truth non-members (e.g., obtained by using the publication date of a target model and the timestamps of the open data) to further enhance the attack. Our evaluation shows that CLIP models are susceptible to our attack strategies, with our simple baseline achieving over $75\%$ membership identification accuracy. Furthermore, our enhanced attacks outperform the baseline across multiple models and datasets, with the weakly supervised attack demonstrating an average-case performance improvement of $17\%$ and being at least $7$X more effective at low false-positive rates. These findings highlight the importance of protecting the privacy of multi-modal foundational models, which were previously assumed to be less susceptible to MIAs due to less overfitting. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruoxi-jia-group/CLIP-MIA.

Tempo Adaption in Non-stationary Reinforcement Learning

We first raise and tackle ``time synchronization'' issue between the agent and the environment in non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL), a crucial factor hindering its real-world applications. In reality, environmental changes occur over wall-clock time ($\mathfrak{t}$) rather than episode progress ($k$), where wall-clock time signifies the actual elapsed time within the fixed duration $\mathfrak{t} \in [0, T]$. In existing works, at episode $k$, the agent rollouts a trajectory and trains a policy before transitioning to episode $k+1$. In the context of the time-desynchronized environment, however, the agent at time $\mathfrak{t}_k$ allocates $\Delta \mathfrak{t}$ for trajectory generation and training, subsequently moves to the next episode at $\mathfrak{t}_{k+1}=\mathfrak{t}_{k}+\Delta \mathfrak{t}$. Despite a fixed total episode ($K$), the agent accumulates different trajectories influenced by the choice of \textit{interaction times} ($\mathfrak{t}_1,\mathfrak{t}_2,...,\mathfrak{t}_K$), significantly impacting the sub-optimality gap of policy. We propose a Proactively Synchronizing Tempo (ProST) framework that computes optimal $\{ \mathfrak{t}_1,\mathfrak{t}_2,...,\mathfrak{t}_K \} (= \{ \mathfrak{t} \}_{1:K})$. Our main contribution is that we show optimal $\{ \mathfrak{t} \}_{1:K}$ trades-off between the policy training time (agent tempo) and how fast the environment changes (environment tempo). Theoretically, this work establishes an optimal $\{ \mathfrak{t} \}_{1:K}$ as a function of the degree of the environment's non-stationarity while also achieving a sublinear dynamic regret. Our experimental evaluation on various high dimensional non-stationary environments shows that the ProST framework achieves a higher online return at optimal $\{ \mathfrak{t} \}_{1:K}$ than the existing methods.

Message Passing Based Block Sparse Signal Recovery for DOA Estimation Using Large Arrays

This work deals with directional of arrival (DOA) estimation with a large antenna array. We first develop a novel signal model with a sparse system transfer matrix using an inverse discrete Fourier transform (DFT) operation, which leads to the formulation of a structured block sparse signal recovery problem with a sparse sensing matrix. This enables the development of a low complexity message passing based Bayesian algorithm with a factor graph representation. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method.

A Human-on-the-Loop Optimization Autoformalism Approach for Sustainability

This paper outlines a natural conversational approach to solving personalized energy-related problems using large language models (LLMs). We focus on customizable optimization problems that necessitate repeated solving with slight variations in modeling and are user-specific, hence posing a challenge to devising a one-size-fits-all model. We put forward a strategy that augments an LLM with an optimization solver, enhancing its proficiency in understanding and responding to user specifications and preferences while providing nonlinear reasoning capabilities. Our approach pioneers the novel concept of human-guided optimization autoformalism, translating a natural language task specification automatically into an optimization instance. This enables LLMs to analyze, explain, and tackle a variety of instance-specific energy-related problems, pushing beyond the limits of current prompt-based techniques. Our research encompasses various commonplace tasks in the energy sector, from electric vehicle charging and Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) control to long-term planning problems such as cost-benefit evaluations for installing rooftop solar photovoltaics (PVs) or heat pumps. This pilot study marks an essential stride towards the context-based formulation of optimization using LLMs, with the potential to democratize optimization processes. As a result, stakeholders are empowered to optimize their energy consumption, promoting sustainable energy practices customized to personal needs and preferences.

Algorithm of Thoughts: Enhancing Exploration of Ideas in Large Language Models

Current literature, aiming to surpass the "Chain-of-Thought" approach, often resorts to an external modus operandi involving halting, modifying, and then resuming the generation process to boost Large Language Models' (LLMs) reasoning capacities. This mode escalates the number of query requests, leading to increased costs, memory, and computational overheads. Addressing this, we propose the Algorithm of Thoughts -- a novel strategy that propels LLMs through algorithmic reasoning pathways, pioneering a new mode of in-context learning. By employing algorithmic examples, we exploit the innate recurrence dynamics of LLMs, expanding their idea exploration with merely one or a few queries. Our technique outperforms earlier single-query methods and stands on par with a recent multi-query strategy that employs an extensive tree search algorithm. Intriguingly, our results suggest that instructing an LLM using an algorithm can lead to performance surpassing that of the algorithm itself, hinting at LLM's inherent ability to weave its intuition into optimized searches. We probe into the underpinnings of our method's efficacy and its nuances in application.

Correlation-aware Spatial-Temporal Graph Learning for Multivariate Time-series Anomaly Detection

Multivariate time-series anomaly detection is critically important in many applications, including retail, transportation, power grid, and water treatment plants. Existing approaches for this problem mostly employ either statistical models which cannot capture the non-linear relations well or conventional deep learning models (e.g., CNN and LSTM) that do not explicitly learn the pairwise correlations among variables. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel method, correlation-aware spatial-temporal graph learning (termed CST-GL), for time series anomaly detection. CST-GL explicitly captures the pairwise correlations via a multivariate time series correlation learning module based on which a spatial-temporal graph neural network (STGNN) can be developed. Then, by employing a graph convolution network that exploits one- and multi-hop neighbor information, our STGNN component can encode rich spatial information from complex pairwise dependencies between variables. With a temporal module that consists of dilated convolutional functions, the STGNN can further capture long-range dependence over time. A novel anomaly scoring component is further integrated into CST-GL to estimate the degree of an anomaly in a purely unsupervised manner. Experimental results demonstrate that CST-GL can detect anomalies effectively in general settings as well as enable early detection across different time delays.