HiMTM: Hierarchical Multi-Scale Masked Time Series Modeling for Long-Term Forecasting

Time series forecasting is crucial and challenging in the real world. The recent surge in interest regarding time series foundation models, which cater to a diverse array of downstream tasks, is noteworthy. However, existing methods often overlook the multi-scale nature of time series, an aspect crucial for precise forecasting. To bridge this gap, we propose HiMTM, a hierarchical multi-scale masked time series modeling method designed for long-term forecasting. Specifically, it comprises four integral components: (1) hierarchical multi-scale transformer (HMT) to capture temporal information at different scales; (2) decoupled encoder-decoder (DED) forces the encoder to focus on feature extraction, while the decoder to focus on pretext tasks; (3) multi-scale masked reconstruction (MMR) provides multi-stage supervision signals for pre-training; (4) cross-scale attention fine-tuning (CSA-FT) to capture dependencies between different scales for forecasting. Collectively, these components enhance multi-scale feature extraction capabilities in masked time series modeling and contribute to improved prediction accuracy. We conduct extensive experiments on 7 mainstream datasets to prove that HiMTM has obvious advantages over contemporary self-supervised and end-to-end learning methods. The effectiveness of HiMTM is further showcased by its application in the industry of natural gas demand forecasting.

Personalized Federated Learning for Multi-task Fault Diagnosis of Rotating Machinery

Intelligent fault diagnosis is essential to safe operation of machinery. However, due to scarce fault samples and data heterogeneity in field machinery, deep learning based diagnosis methods are prone to over-fitting with poor generalization ability. To solve the problem, this paper proposes a personalized federated learning framework, enabling multi-task fault diagnosis method across multiple factories in a privacypreserving manner. Firstly, rotating machines from different factories with similar vibration feature data are categorized into machine groups using a federated clustering method. Then, a multi-task deep learning model based on convolutional neural network is constructed to diagnose the multiple faults of machinery with heterogeneous information fusion. Finally, a personalized federated learning framework is proposed to solve data heterogeneity across different machines using adaptive hierarchical aggregation strategy. The case study on collected data from real machines verifies the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The result shows that the diagnosis accuracy could be improved significantly using the proposed personalized federated learning, especially for those machines with scarce fault samples.