Advancing Counterfactual Inference through Quantile Regression

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference usually assumes a structural causal model is available. However, in practice, such a causal model is often unknown and may not be identifiable. This paper aims to perform reliable counterfactual inference based on the (learned) qualitative causal structure and observational data, without a given causal model or even directly estimating conditional distributions. We re-cast counterfactual reasoning as an extended quantile regression problem using neural networks. The approach is statistically more efficient than existing ones, and further makes it possible to develop the generalization ability of the estimated counterfactual outcome to unseen data and provide an upper bound on the generalization error. Experiment results on multiple datasets strongly support our theoretical claims.

Understanding Masked Autoencoders via Hierarchical Latent Variable Models

Masked autoencoder (MAE), a simple and effective self-supervised learning framework based on the reconstruction of masked image regions, has recently achieved prominent success in a variety of vision tasks. Despite the emergence of intriguing empirical observations on MAE, a theoretically principled understanding is still lacking. In this work, we formally characterize and justify existing empirical insights and provide theoretical guarantees of MAE. We formulate the underlying data-generating process as a hierarchical latent variable model and show that under reasonable assumptions, MAE provably identifies a set of latent variables in the hierarchical model, explaining why MAE can extract high-level information from pixels. Further, we show how key hyperparameters in MAE (the masking ratio and the patch size) determine which true latent variables to be recovered, therefore influencing the level of semantic information in the representation. Specifically, extremely large or small masking ratios inevitably lead to low-level representations. Our theory offers coherent explanations of existing empirical observations and provides insights for potential empirical improvements and fundamental limitations of the masking-reconstruction paradigm. We conduct extensive experiments to validate our theoretical insights.

Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders Based on Higher-Order Cumulants

Causal discovery with latent confounders is an important but challenging task in many scientific areas. Despite the success of some overcomplete independent component analysis (OICA) based methods in certain domains, they are computationally expensive and can easily get stuck into local optima. We notice that interestingly, by making use of higher-order cumulants, there exists a closed-form solution to OICA in specific cases, e.g., when the mixing procedure follows the One-Latent-Component structure. In light of the power of the closed-form solution to OICA corresponding to the One-Latent-Component structure, we formulate a way to estimate the mixing matrix using the higher-order cumulants, and further propose the testable One-Latent-Component condition to identify the latent variables and determine causal orders. By iteratively removing the share identified latent components, we successfully extend the results on the One-Latent-Component structure to the Multi-Latent-Component structure and finally provide a practical and asymptotically correct algorithm to learn the causal structure with latent variables. Experimental results illustrate the asymptotic correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Understanding Breast Cancer Survival: Using Causality and Language Models on Multi-omics Data

The need for more usable and explainable machine learning models in healthcare increases the importance of developing and utilizing causal discovery algorithms, which aim to discover causal relations by analyzing observational data. Explainable approaches aid clinicians and biologists in predicting the prognosis of diseases and suggesting proper treatments. However, very little research has been conducted at the crossroads between causal discovery, genomics, and breast cancer, and we aim to bridge this gap. Moreover, evaluation of causal discovery methods on real data is in general notoriously difficult because ground-truth causal relations are usually unknown, and accordingly, in this paper, we also propose to address the evaluation problem with large language models. In particular, we exploit suitable causal discovery algorithms to investigate how various perturbations in the genome can affect the survival of patients diagnosed with breast cancer. We used three main causal discovery algorithms: PC, Greedy Equivalence Search (GES), and a Generalized Precision Matrix-based one. We experiment with a subset of The Cancer Genome Atlas, which contains information about mutations, copy number variations, protein levels, and gene expressions for 705 breast cancer patients. Our findings reveal important factors related to the vital status of patients using causal discovery algorithms. However, the reliability of these results remains a concern in the medical domain. Accordingly, as another contribution of the work, the results are validated through language models trained on biomedical literature, such as BlueBERT and other large language models trained on medical corpora. Our results profess proper utilization of causal discovery algorithms and language models for revealing reliable causal relations for clinical applications.

Uncertainty Guided Label Denoising for Document-level Distant Relation Extraction

Document-level relation extraction (DocRE) aims to infer complex semantic relations among entities in a document. Distant supervision (DS) is able to generate massive auto-labeled data, which can improve DocRE performance. Recent works leverage pseudo labels generated by the pre-denoising model to reduce noise in DS data. However, unreliable pseudo labels bring new noise, e.g., adding false pseudo labels and losing correct DS labels. Therefore, how to select effective pseudo labels to denoise DS data is still a challenge in document-level distant relation extraction. To tackle this issue, we introduce uncertainty estimation technology to determine whether pseudo labels can be trusted. In this work, we propose a Document-level distant Relation Extraction framework with Uncertainty Guided label denoising, UGDRE. Specifically, we propose a novel instance-level uncertainty estimation method, which measures the reliability of the pseudo labels with overlapping relations. By further considering the long-tail problem, we design dynamic uncertainty thresholds for different types of relations to filter high-uncertainty pseudo labels. We conduct experiments on two public datasets. Our framework outperforms strong baselines by 1.91 F1 and 2.28 Ign F1 on the RE-DocRED dataset.

Voices of Her: Analyzing Gender Differences in the AI Publication World

While several previous studies have analyzed gender bias in research, we are still missing a comprehensive analysis of gender differences in the AI community, covering diverse topics and different development trends. Using the AI Scholar dataset of 78K researchers in the field of AI, we identify several gender differences: (1) Although female researchers tend to have fewer overall citations than males, this citation difference does not hold for all academic-age groups; (2) There exist large gender homophily in co-authorship on AI papers; (3) Female first-authored papers show distinct linguistic styles, such as longer text, more positive emotion words, and more catchy titles than male first-authored papers. Our analysis provides a window into the current demographic trends in our AI community, and encourages more gender equality and diversity in the future. Our code and data are at https://github.com/causalNLP/ai-scholar-gender.

Generalized Precision Matrix for Scalable Estimation of Nonparametric Markov Networks

A Markov network characterizes the conditional independence structure, or Markov property, among a set of random variables. Existing work focuses on specific families of distributions (e.g., exponential families) and/or certain structures of graphs, and most of them can only handle variables of a single data type (continuous or discrete). In this work, we characterize the conditional independence structure in general distributions for all data types (i.e., continuous, discrete, and mixed-type) with a Generalized Precision Matrix (GPM). Besides, we also allow general functional relations among variables, thus giving rise to a Markov network structure learning algorithm in one of the most general settings. To deal with the computational challenge of the problem, especially for large graphs, we unify all cases under the same umbrella of a regularized score matching framework. We validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the scalability empirically in various settings.

Feature Expansion for Graph Neural Networks

Graph neural networks aim to learn representations for graph-structured data and show impressive performance, particularly in node classification. Recently, many methods have studied the representations of GNNs from the perspective of optimization goals and spectral graph theory. However, the feature space that dominates representation learning has not been systematically studied in graph neural networks. In this paper, we propose to fill this gap by analyzing the feature space of both spatial and spectral models. We decompose graph neural networks into determined feature spaces and trainable weights, providing the convenience of studying the feature space explicitly using matrix space analysis. In particular, we theoretically find that the feature space tends to be linearly correlated due to repeated aggregations. Motivated by these findings, we propose 1) feature subspaces flattening and 2) structural principal components to expand the feature space. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness of our proposed more comprehensive feature space, with comparable inference time to the baseline, and demonstrate its efficient convergence capability.

Explainable Recommender with Geometric Information Bottleneck

Explainable recommender systems can explain their recommendation decisions, enhancing user trust in the systems. Most explainable recommender systems either rely on human-annotated rationales to train models for explanation generation or leverage the attention mechanism to extract important text spans from reviews as explanations. The extracted rationales are often confined to an individual review and may fail to identify the implicit features beyond the review text. To avoid the expensive human annotation process and to generate explanations beyond individual reviews, we propose to incorporate a geometric prior learnt from user-item interactions into a variational network which infers latent factors from user-item reviews. The latent factors from an individual user-item pair can be used for both recommendation and explanation generation, which naturally inherit the global characteristics encoded in the prior knowledge. Experimental results on three e-commerce datasets show that our model significantly improves the interpretability of a variational recommender using the Wasserstein distance while achieving performance comparable to existing content-based recommender systems in terms of recommendation behaviours.

Unsupervised Sampling Promoting for Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction

The indeterminate nature of human motion requires trajectory prediction systems to use a probabilistic model to formulate the multi-modality phenomenon and infer a finite set of future trajectories. However, the inference processes of most existing methods rely on Monte Carlo random sampling, which is insufficient to cover the realistic paths with finite samples, due to the long tail effect of the predicted distribution. To promote the sampling process of stochastic prediction, we propose a novel method, called BOsampler, to adaptively mine potential paths with Bayesian optimization in an unsupervised manner, as a sequential design strategy in which new prediction is dependent on the previously drawn samples. Specifically, we model the trajectory sampling as a Gaussian process and construct an acquisition function to measure the potential sampling value. This acquisition function applies the original distribution as prior and encourages exploring paths in the long-tail region. This sampling method can be integrated with existing stochastic predictive models without retraining. Experimental results on various baseline methods demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.