LETS Forecast: Learning Embedology for Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

Theoretical Analysis of Positional Encodings in Transformer Models: Impact on Expressiveness and Generalization

Positional encodings are a core part of transformer-based models, enabling processing of sequential data without recurrence. This paper presents a theoretical framework to analyze how various positional encoding methods, including sinusoidal, learned, relative, and bias-based methods like Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi), impact a transformer's expressiveness, generalization ability, and extrapolation to longer sequences. Expressiveness is defined via function approximation, generalization bounds are established using Rademacher complexity, and new encoding methods based on orthogonal functions, such as wavelets and Legendre polynomials, are proposed. The extrapolation capacity of existing and proposed encodings is analyzed, extending ALiBi's biasing approach to a unified theoretical context. Experimental evaluation on synthetic sequence-to-sequence tasks shows that orthogonal transform-based encodings outperform traditional sinusoidal encodings in generalization and extrapolation. This work addresses a critical gap in transformer theory, providing insights for design choices in natural language processing, computer vision, and other transformer applications.

Pangu Ultra MoE: How to Train Your Big MoE on Ascend NPUs

Sparse large language models (LLMs) with Mixture of Experts (MoE) and close to a trillion parameters are dominating the realm of most capable language models. However, the massive model scale poses significant challenges for the underlying software and hardware systems. In this paper, we aim to uncover a recipe to harness such scale on Ascend NPUs. The key goals are better usage of the computing resources under the dynamic sparse model structures and materializing the expected performance gain on the actual hardware. To select model configurations suitable for Ascend NPUs without repeatedly running the expensive experiments, we leverage simulation to compare the trade-off of various model hyperparameters. This study led to Pangu Ultra MoE, a sparse LLM with 718 billion parameters, and we conducted experiments on the model to verify the simulation results. On the system side, we dig into Expert Parallelism to optimize the communication between NPU devices to reduce the synchronization overhead. We also optimize the memory efficiency within the devices to further reduce the parameter and activation management overhead. In the end, we achieve an MFU of 30.0% when training Pangu Ultra MoE, with performance comparable to that of DeepSeek R1, on 6K Ascend NPUs, and demonstrate that the Ascend system is capable of harnessing all the training stages of the state-of-the-art language models. Extensive experiments indicate that our recipe can lead to efficient training of large-scale sparse language models with MoE. We also study the behaviors of such models for future reference.

Air Quality Prediction with A Meteorology-Guided Modality-Decoupled Spatio-Temporal Network

Air quality prediction plays a crucial role in public health and environmental protection. Accurate air quality prediction is a complex multivariate spatiotemporal problem, that involves interactions across temporal patterns, pollutant correlations, spatial station dependencies, and particularly meteorological influences that govern pollutant dispersion and chemical transformations. Existing works underestimate the critical role of atmospheric conditions in air quality prediction and neglect comprehensive meteorological data utilization, thereby impairing the modeling of dynamic interdependencies between air quality and meteorological data. To overcome this, we propose MDSTNet, an encoder-decoder framework that explicitly models air quality observations and atmospheric conditions as distinct modalities, integrating multi-pressure-level meteorological data and weather forecasts to capture atmosphere-pollution dependencies for prediction. Meantime, we construct ChinaAirNet, the first nationwide dataset combining air quality records with multi-pressure-level meteorological observations. Experimental results on ChinaAirNet demonstrate MDSTNet's superiority, substantially reducing 48-hour prediction errors by 17.54\% compared to the state-of-the-art model. The source code and dataset will be available on github.

Pangu Ultra: Pushing the Limits of Dense Large Language Models on Ascend NPUs

We present Pangu Ultra, a Large Language Model (LLM) with 135 billion parameters and dense Transformer modules trained on Ascend Neural Processing Units (NPUs). Although the field of LLM has been witnessing unprecedented advances in pushing the scale and capability of LLM in recent years, training such a large-scale model still involves significant optimization and system challenges. To stabilize the training process, we propose depth-scaled sandwich normalization, which effectively eliminates loss spikes during the training process of deep models. We pre-train our model on 13.2 trillion diverse and high-quality tokens and further enhance its reasoning capabilities during post-training. To perform such large-scale training efficiently, we utilize 8,192 Ascend NPUs with a series of system optimizations. Evaluations on multiple diverse benchmarks indicate that Pangu Ultra significantly advances the state-of-the-art capabilities of dense LLMs such as Llama 405B and Mistral Large 2, and even achieves competitive results with DeepSeek-R1, whose sparse model structure contains much more parameters. Our exploration demonstrates that Ascend NPUs are capable of efficiently and effectively training dense models with more than 100 billion parameters. Our model and system will be available for our commercial customers.

SAM2MOT: A Novel Paradigm of Multi-Object Tracking by Segmentation

Segment Anything 2 (SAM2) enables robust single-object tracking using segmentation. To extend this to multi-object tracking (MOT), we propose SAM2MOT, introducing a novel Tracking by Segmentation paradigm. Unlike Tracking by Detection or Tracking by Query, SAM2MOT directly generates tracking boxes from segmentation masks, reducing reliance on detection accuracy. SAM2MOT has two key advantages: zero-shot generalization, allowing it to work across datasets without fine-tuning, and strong object association, inherited from SAM2. To further improve performance, we integrate a trajectory manager system for precise object addition and removal, and a cross-object interaction module to handle occlusions. Experiments on DanceTrack, UAVDT, and BDD100K show state-of-the-art results. Notably, SAM2MOT outperforms existing methods on DanceTrack by +2.1 HOTA and +4.5 IDF1, highlighting its effectiveness in MOT.

PAVE: Patching and Adapting Video Large Language Models

Pre-trained video large language models (Video LLMs) exhibit remarkable reasoning capabilities, yet adapting these models to new tasks involving additional modalities or data types (e.g., audio or 3D information) remains challenging. In this paper, we present PAVE, a flexible framework for adapting pre-trained Video LLMs to downstream tasks with side-channel signals, such as audio, 3D cues, or multi-view videos. PAVE introduces lightweight adapters, referred to as "patches," which add a small number of parameters and operations to a base model without modifying its architecture or pre-trained weights. In doing so, PAVE can effectively adapt the pre-trained base model to support diverse downstream tasks, including audio-visual question answering, 3D reasoning, multi-view video recognition, and high frame rate video understanding. Across these tasks, PAVE significantly enhances the performance of the base model, surpassing state-of-the-art task-specific models while incurring a minor cost of ~0.1% additional FLOPs and parameters. Further, PAVE supports multi-task learning and generalizes well across different Video LLMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/dragonlzm/PAVE.

Learning to Inference Adaptively for Multimodal Large Language Models

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in reasoning, yet come with substantial computational cost, limiting their deployment in resource-constrained settings. Despite recent efforts on improving the efficiency of MLLMs, prior solutions fall short in responding to varying runtime conditions, in particular changing resource availability (e.g., contention due to the execution of other programs on the device). To bridge this gap, we introduce AdaLLaVA, an adaptive inference framework that learns to dynamically reconfigure operations in an MLLM during inference, accounting for the input data and a latency budget. We conduct extensive experiments across benchmarks involving question-answering, reasoning, and hallucination. Our results show that AdaLLaVA effectively adheres to input latency budget, achieving varying accuracy and latency tradeoffs at runtime. Further, we demonstrate that AdaLLaVA adapts to both input latency and content, can be integrated with token selection for enhanced efficiency, and generalizes across MLLMs.Our project webpage with code release is at https://zhuoyan-xu.github.io/ada-llava/.

Deep-Unrolling Multidimensional Harmonic Retrieval Algorithms on Neuromorphic Hardware

This paper explores the potential of conversion-based neuromorphic algorithms for highly accurate and energy-efficient single-snapshot multidimensional harmonic retrieval (MHR). By casting the MHR problem as a sparse recovery problem, we devise the currently proposed, deep-unrolling-based Structured Learned Iterative Shrinkage and Thresholding (S-LISTA) algorithm to solve it efficiently using complex-valued convolutional neural networks with complex-valued activations, which are trained using a supervised regression objective. Afterward, a novel method for converting the complex-valued convolutional layers and activations into spiking neural networks (SNNs) is developed. At the heart of this method lies the recently proposed Few Spikes (FS) conversion, which is extended by modifying the neuron model's parameters and internal dynamics to account for the inherent coupling between real and imaginary parts in complex-valued computations. Finally, the converted SNNs are mapped onto the SpiNNaker2 neuromorphic board, and a comparison in terms of estimation accuracy and power efficiency between the original CNNs deployed on an NVIDIA Jetson Xavier and the SNNs is being conducted. The measurement results show that the converted SNNs achieve almost five-fold power efficiency at moderate performance loss compared to the original CNNs.

AIM: Adaptive Inference of Multi-Modal LLMs via Token Merging and Pruning

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled the creation of multi-modal LLMs that exhibit strong comprehension of visual data such as images and videos. However, these models usually rely on extensive visual tokens from visual encoders, leading to high computational demands, which limits their applicability in resource-constrained environments and for long-context tasks. In this work, we propose a training-free adaptive inference method for multi-modal LLMs that can accommodate a broad range of efficiency requirements with a minimum performance drop. Our method consists of a) iterative token merging based on embedding similarity before LLMs, and b) progressive token pruning within LLM layers based on multi-modal importance. With a minimalist design, our method can be applied to both video and image LLMs. Extensive experiments on diverse video and image benchmarks demonstrate that, our method substantially reduces computation load (e.g., a $\textbf{7-fold}$ reduction in FLOPs) while preserving the performance of video and image LLMs. Further, under a similar computational cost, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in long video understanding (e.g., $\textbf{+4.6}$ on MLVU). Additionally, our in-depth analysis provides insights into token redundancy and LLM layer behaviors, offering guidance for future research in designing efficient multi-modal LLMs. Our code will be available at https://github.com/LaVi-Lab/AIM.