Tail-Shape Estimation in LLM Evaluation Is Fragile: A Protocol for Diagnosing False Positives

Recent work motivates moving large language model (LLM) evaluation from mean-based to tail-aware metrics, including conditional value-at-risk and tail-index estimates of reward-model error. We ask whether the canonical extreme-value-theory tail-index parameter, which isolates how heavy a tail is from how large the tail mass is, adds discriminative information beyond the mean and a standard tail-magnitude statistic in LLM evaluation. We pre-register a protocol covering admissibility, goodness-of-fit, threshold-stability, and effect-size requirements for any positive tail-shape claim. The protocol is the contribution of this paper; the empirical study below is a demonstration of what its gates catch. Applied to a standard LLM toxicity-evaluation setup under two structurally different scorer families, the protocol catches three distinct modes of false positives that a naive analysis would have published, and rejects the headline tail-shape claim on both scorers. We conclude that tail-shape estimation in the LLM toxicity-evaluation setups we examined is more fragile than the recent literature suggests, and recommend the protocol as a starting point for tail-index claims in similar setups.

Whose hotel does the AI recommend? An algorithm audit of reputation signals in LLM-assisted hotel selection

Travelers increasingly ask large language model (LLM) assistants which hotel to book, making these systems gatekeepers of property visibility -- yet what moves their recommendations is undocumented. We conduct a pre-specified algorithm audit using a randomized choice-based conjoint: across personas, prompt templates, and twelve open-weight and proprietary models, assistants choose among five hotels whose guest rating, review volume and recency, management response, chain affiliation, price, eco-certification, and list position are independently randomized. We estimate the average marginal component effect of each signal on the probability of recommendation. Guest rating and price dominate (a top rating raises selection by 31.6 percentage points; a high price lowers it by 30.0), reproducing human valence-and-price primacy but over-weighting eco-certification and ignoring management response. List position -- a content-free artifact -- shifts recommendations causally, worth about \$12 per night. Stated reasons track revealed weights imperfectly. The findings ground generative engine optimization and the accountability of AI infomediaries in causal evidence.

OneRank: Unified Transformer-Native Ranking Architecture for Multi-Task Recommendation

Multi-task learning (MTL) is essential in recommender systems to enable complementary learning among diverse user feedback. While modern industrial practices have shifted from DNNs to Transformer-centric architectures to strengthen sequence modeling and scaling capacity, they still decouple feature encoding from multi-task prediction, treating the Transformer as a task-agnostic encoder. This design fundamentally limits the performance and scalability by (1) creating an information bottleneck under heterogeneous task objectives, (2) inducing gradient interference that leads to the seesaw phenomenon, and (3) forcing a dataflow transition in which attention-based, context-adaptive representation learning is converted to static feed-forward task prediction with incompatible information read-write dynamics. We propose OneRank, a Transformer-native multi-task ranking framework that eliminates encoder-predictor separation and introduces task-private channels for forward representation learning and backward optimization, enabling task-specialized learning while reducing inter-task interference. In the forward pass, OneRank learns task-specific representations bottom-up through task-conditioned information selection, candidate-aware contextualization, and controlled cross-task interaction. In the backward pass, cross-task gradient detachment isolates task-private parameter updates from shared knowledge extraction modules, preventing negative transfer. We further replace static task-specific MLP scorers with dynamic matching-based scoring for context-aware personalized ranking. By internalizing multi-task reasoning within the Transformer stack, OneRank establishes a unified and scalable architectural paradigm. Offline and online experiments on large-scale industrial datasets show that OneRank significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines while maintaining computational efficiency.

From Democracies to Autocracies: How AI Systems Enable Authoritarianism by Design

AI-enabled authoritarianism is not confined to autocracies. In this paper, we provide greater transparency by investigating and mapping the lifecycles of six AI systems deployed in different political regimes, ranging from the US to China. By drawing on an extensive range of sources (academic publications, investigative research reports, third-party evaluations, media interviews, government procurement notices), we conduct a systematic, qualitative comparison across systems to identify the critical technical and operational features that enable authoritarianism within their respective political contexts. We find that enabling features include the centralization and co-optation of administrative data for law enforcement and political punishment, regulatory gaps that fail to deter misuse, weak user compliance that nullifies human oversight mechanisms, and the encoding of protected group traits that identify members of vulnerable populations. We find that these features are present across systems deployed in autocratic and democratic regimes, albeit in varying configurations. We also find that both centralized and fragmented AI systems can contribute to authoritarianism by exploiting governance gaps: centralized systems directed by executive authorities, particularly within security and military institutions, are often not subjected to formal oversight mechanisms, while fragmented systems diffuse accountability between stakeholders, paving the way for entrenchment. These findings reveal that AI-enabled authoritarianism is distributed, resulting from design and operational choices made by developers, administrators, and users alike. We conclude with recommendations for developers and policymakers to mitigate these risks.

Intelligent Multimodal Retrieval and Reasoning for Geospatial Knowledge Discovery on the I-GUIDE Platform

Geospatial knowledge discovery increasingly requires search across heterogeneous artifacts: datasets, maps, notebooks, software, publications, and the provenance links among them. Conventional geoportals support metadata and spatial filtering, but they rarely provide semantic retrieval, graph-aware provenance traversal, and conversational synthesis in one integrated system. This paper presents I-GUIDE Smart Search, a production multimodal geospatial retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) system embedded in the I-GUIDE Platform, and reports on its design, deployment, and evaluation. The system combines production-maintained OpenSearch keyword, vector, and spatial indexes with a Neo4j knowledge graph and an iterative RAG pipeline for memory-aware query augmentation, reasoning, retrieval-method routing, relevance grading, grounded generation, hallucination and relevance checking. In a single-A100 RAG deployment, I-GUIDE Smart Search supports interactive use up to about 100 concurrent simulated users, reaching 4.4 requests per second with p50 latency near 25 seconds despite 20-50 LLM calls per query. For answer quality, we evaluate a four-category benchmark of 170 unique human-filtered user-facing queries, together with ten intent-specific probe sets generated from the deployed indexes and graph. Smart Search improves retrieved evidence coverage and judged answer quality over non-retrieval and naive-RAG baselines, with the clearest gains on exact-identifier, spatially constrained, simple-recommendation, and domain-specific factual queries requiring current indexed evidence. We distill transferable deployment lessons for spatial RAG systems, covering spatial metadata quality, graph provenance, retrieval routing, interface contracts, refusal-aware evaluation, latency-cost tradeoffs, and the role of the user interface in deployed geospatial cyberinfrastructure.

One Sequential Recommendation Model Pretrained from Synthetic Priors Predicts Multiple Datasets

Existing sequential recommendation models rely on dataset-specific training, where the learned parameters are fitted to the item catalog and the observed interaction distribution of the training data. This limits generalization to new domains, typically requiring retraining from scratch. In this work, we propose SRPFN, a Prior-data Fitted Network for sequential recommendation -- predicting the next item in a single forward pass without any gradient-based parameter updates in the target domain. SRPFN is pretrained offline on 25.6M sequences sampled from a synthetic prior that spans diverse item-to-item transition patterns, learning to produce posterior predictive next-item distributions. At inference time, SRPFN generates recommendations by conditioning on a support set of item-item transition examples from the target domain, adapting to domain-specific patterns without retraining. Extensive experiments on five benchmarks across 10 baselines show that SRPFN achieves the best or second-best performance across nearly all metrics and datasets, while being substantially more computationally efficient than trained baselines. These results establish that a single model pretrained on synthetic priors can generalize across diverse real-world domains, offering a framework for update-free sequential recommendation.

Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation

Per-token counterfactual credit estimation asks which token in a language-model rollout caused the final answer to be right or wrong: cut the transcript at a pivot, substitute an alternative token, replay continuations, and compare outcomes. Published methods re-feed the transcript prefix as a fresh prompt, assuming this reproduces the state the model passed through during generation. We measure what that assumption costs on a stock inference engine, with a three-pass design: continuations resumed from the verified decode-time KV state, an identical second exact pass (a replica noise floor), and a re-feed pass. Across six configurations and three models (including a GRPO-trained checkpoint), at low-margin decision tokens, re-feeding changes the credit estimate at rates 14-28 percentage points above the replica floor (7-21pp under a treatment-independent conditioning; problem-clustered t = 2.9-6.4). Most changes are zero-boundary crossings of the quantized estimator rather than polarity reversals, and the perturbation is consistent with mean-zero, so averaged quantities are largely safe; but selection is not: a critical-token set chosen by thresholding $|\hat{A}_t|$ under re-feed overlaps the exact-resume selection at Jaccard 0.34-0.90, versus a 0.63-0.96 replica ceiling. A causal confirmation closes the loop: under vLLM's batch-invariant kernels all three passes are identical on every measured channel, with both disagreement rates exactly zero. Replica passes themselves disagree on 9-23% of eligible estimates: single-sample credit measurements at decision tokens are unreliable under any replay. Settings were fixed in advance; exact-pass cache hits in the second campaign are instrumented (100% hit rate, 3,434 pivots); total compute was under 10 USD. We recommend that counterfactual credit studies resume decoder state or use batch-invariant kernels, and report a replica floor.

An Integrated System for Real-Time Student Assessment and Career Guidance Using Neural Networks in Computing Disciplines

Many undergraduate students in Computer Science (CS) and Software Engineering (SWE) struggle to identify suitable career paths, particularly when their academic performance, abilities, and interests do not fully align. To address this issue, this study proposes an AI-driven Student Assessment and Career Prediction System that integrates a Career Guidance Expert (CGE) system with a Web-Based Student Assessment (WBSA) platform. Within the integrated framework, CGE enhances personalized career recommendations using AI while also assisting students after graduation in identifying suitable jobs, research domains, and higher study opportunities aligned with their skills and interests. The WBSA platform further strengthens interaction between students and faculty through assessments, personalized tasks, mentorship activities, and a secure real-time chat application. The CGE system employs a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model trained on real-world academic and extracurricular data collected using the snowball sampling method from the students of universities, achieving a validation accuracy of 94.71% in predicting personalized career paths. A pre-survey was conducted across universities to evaluate the proposed model before deployment. The WBSA system was developed as a modern web application using technologies such as Node.js, Next.js, and PostgreSQL to ensure scalability, responsiveness, and secure data management. The overall system is supported by a secure cloud-based infrastructure, the platform provides reliable performance while assisting graduates to select suitable career path in IT sector. In addition, a post-survey involving both students and faculty was conducted to gather feedback and further improve the overall effectiveness and usability of the system.

HoloRec: Holistic Encoding and Interleaved Reasoning for Generative Recommendation

Generative recommendation models that formulate the task as sequence generation overcome the objective fragmentation problem of traditional cascade architectures, yet existing approaches still suffer from flat semantic representations lacking hierarchical structure for multi-step reasoning and an externally constructed chain-of-thought (CoT) that requires expensive annotations and remains disconnected from the generation objective. We propose HoloRec, an endogenous chain-of-thought recommendation mechanism that unifies representation, reasoning, and generation by constructing a hierarchical semantic encoding matrix via multi-granularity nested residual quantization optimized by a holistic reconstruction loss. HoloRec supports two inference modes: a non-thinking mode that uses lightweight multi-granularity supervised alignment for fast prediction, and a thinking mode that employs an interleaved reasoning scheme to generate CoT steps on the fly, directly embedding reasoning into the generation process without external data. Experiments on multiple public recommendation datasets demonstrate that HoloRec consistently outperforms baselines, with especially significant gains in sparse scenarios, and the thinking mode achieves better accuracy than the non-thinking mode with only modest inference overhead.

Chroma-gated, differentiable OKLCH interpolation: Continuous Oklab fallback for color-cast reduction

OKLCH -- the cylindrical (lightness, chroma, hue) form of Ottosson's Oklab color space -- is the interpolation space recommended by CSS Color 4 for gradients and color-mix(), and it is now broadly deployed. Its polar parameterization, however, casts color near the neutral axis in two ways: (1) an inter-hue detour between two chromatic endpoints that sweeps through an unintended hue (blue to yellow visibly passing through green), and (2) an off-line bow when one endpoint is achromatic. Existing remedies are uniformly two-valued -- a threshold switch that fires only at an achromatic endpoint -- so they address only (2); on chromatic pairs every one of them reduces to raw OKLCH, leaving the (1) inter-hue cast untreated. We introduce Continuous Oklab fallback (COFb), a one-parameter, differentiable chroma gate $w(C)=C^n/(C^n+σ^n)$ that continuously blends the OKLCH path toward the linear Oklab path as chroma falls. A single gate reduces the (1) cast that the two-valued family leaves untreated and unifies the handling of (1) and (2) without any endpoint test. We characterize a cast-hue trade-off frontier, adopt a default ($n=1$, the rational Michaelis-Menten form; $σ\approx0.19$ for a typical sRGB palette, from a normalization-independent cast-half criterion), and verify the gate's properties symbolically. At the default, COFb halves the inter-hue path detour (mean lateral deviation -49.5%, chroma-weighted hue excursion -35.5%). We also state the method's limits: on (2) alone the two-valued switch remains better, and like any Cartesian blend COFb does not preserve chroma. In deployment, COFb runs entirely in plain Oklab (a,b) to sRGB, so it serves as a fallback that delivers the same cast-reduced gradients where modern CSS color interpolation (color-mix(in oklch) and the like) is unavailable -- older engines, image and video pipelines, or GPU shaders.