Risk-Aware Financial Forecasting Enhanced by Machine Learning and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

In the face of increasing financial uncertainty and market complexity, this study presents a novel risk-aware financial forecasting framework that integrates advanced machine learning techniques with intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). Tailored to the BIST 100 index and validated through a case study of a major defense company in Türkiye, the framework fuses structured financial data, unstructured text data, and macroeconomic indicators to enhance predictive accuracy and robustness. It incorporates a hybrid suite of models, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), long short-term memory (LSTM) network, graph neural network (GNN), to deliver probabilistic forecasts with quantified uncertainty. The empirical results demonstrate high forecasting accuracy, with a net profit mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.03% and narrow 95% confidence intervals for key financial indicators. The risk-aware analysis indicates a favorable risk-return profile, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.25 and a higher Sortino ratio of 1.80, suggesting relatively low downside volatility and robust performance under market fluctuations. Sensitivity analysis shows that the key financial indicator predictions are highly sensitive to variations of inflation, interest rates, sentiment, and exchange rates. Additionally, using an intuitionistic fuzzy MCDM approach, combining entropy weighting, evaluation based on distance from the average solution (EDAS), and the measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution (MARCOS) methods, the tabular data learning network (TabNet) outperforms the other models and is identified as the most suitable candidate for deployment. Overall, the findings of this work highlight the importance of integrating advanced machine learning, risk quantification, and fuzzy MCDM methodologies in financial forecasting, particularly in emerging markets.

Universal Adversarial Suffixes for Language Models Using Reinforcement Learning with Calibrated Reward

Language models are vulnerable to short adversarial suffixes that can reliably alter predictions. Previous works usually find such suffixes with gradient search or rule-based methods, but these are brittle and often tied to a single task or model. In this paper, a reinforcement learning framework is used where the suffix is treated as a policy and trained with Proximal Policy Optimization against a frozen model as a reward oracle. Rewards are shaped using calibrated cross-entropy, removing label bias and aggregating across surface forms to improve transferability. The proposed method is evaluated on five diverse NLP benchmark datasets, covering sentiment, natural language inference, paraphrase, and commonsense reasoning, using three distinct language models: Qwen2-1.5B Instruct, TinyLlama-1.1B Chat, and Phi-1.5. Results show that RL-trained suffixes consistently degrade accuracy and transfer more effectively across tasks and models than previous adversarial triggers of similar genres.

PrivTune: Efficient and Privacy-Preserving Fine-Tuning of Large Language Models via Device-Cloud Collaboration

With the rise of large language models, service providers offer language models as a service, enabling users to fine-tune customized models via uploaded private datasets. However, this raises concerns about sensitive data leakage. Prior methods, relying on differential privacy within device-cloud collaboration frameworks, struggle to balance privacy and utility, exposing users to inference attacks or degrading fine-tuning performance. To address this, we propose PrivTune, an efficient and privacy-preserving fine-tuning framework via Split Learning (SL). The key idea of PrivTune is to inject crafted noise into token representations from the SL bottom model, making each token resemble the $n$-hop indirect neighbors. PrivTune formulates this as an optimization problem to compute the optimal noise vector, aligning with defense-utility goals. On this basis, it then adjusts the parameters (i.e., mean) of the $d_χ$-Privacy noise distribution to align with the optimization direction and scales the noise according to token importance to minimize distortion. Experiments on five datasets (covering both classification and generation tasks) against three embedding inversion and three attribute inference attacks show that, using RoBERTa on the Stanford Sentiment Treebank dataset, PrivTune reduces the attack success rate to 10% with only a 3.33% drop in utility performance, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.

HealthcareNLP: where are we and what is next?

This proposed tutorial focuses on Healthcare Domain Applications of NLP, what we have achieved around HealthcareNLP, and the challenges that lie ahead for the future. Existing reviews in this domain either overlook some important tasks, such as synthetic data generation for addressing privacy concerns, or explainable clinical NLP for improved integration and implementation, or fail to mention important methodologies, including retrieval augmented generation and the neural symbolic integration of LLMs and KGs. In light of this, the goal of this tutorial is to provide an introductory overview of the most important sub-areas of a patient- and resource-oriented HealthcareNLP, with three layers of hierarchy: data/resource layer: annotation guidelines, ethical approvals, governance, synthetic data; NLP-Eval layer: NLP tasks such as NER, RE, sentiment analysis, and linking/coding with categorised methods, leading to explainable HealthAI; patients layer: Patient Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE), health literacy, translation, simplification, and summarisation (also NLP tasks), and shared decision-making support. A hands-on session will be included in the tutorial for the audience to use HealthcareNLP applications. The target audience includes NLP practitioners in the healthcare application domain, NLP researchers who are interested in domain applications, healthcare researchers, and students from NLP fields. The type of tutorial is "Introductory to CL/NLP topics (HealthcareNLP)" and the audience does not need prior knowledge to attend this. Tutorial materials: https://github.com/4dpicture/HealthNLP

Universal Adversarial Suffixes Using Calibrated Gumbel-Softmax Relaxation

Language models (LMs) are often used as zero-shot or few-shot classifiers by scoring label words, but they remain fragile to adversarial prompts. Prior work typically optimizes task- or model-specific triggers, making results difficult to compare and limiting transferability. We study universal adversarial suffixes: short token sequences (4-10 tokens) that, when appended to any input, broadly reduce accuracy across tasks and models. Our approach learns the suffix in a differentiable "soft" form using Gumbel-Softmax relaxation and then discretizes it for inference. Training maximizes calibrated cross-entropy on the label region while masking gold tokens to prevent trivial leakage, with entropy regularization to avoid collapse. A single suffix trained on one model transfers effectively to others, consistently lowering both accuracy and calibrated confidence. Experiments on sentiment analysis, natural language inference, paraphrase detection, commonsense QA, and physical reasoning with Qwen2-1.5B, Phi-1.5, and TinyLlama-1.1B demonstrate consistent attack effectiveness and transfer across tasks and model families.

A Hybrid Model for Stock Market Forecasting: Integrating News Sentiment and Time Series Data with Graph Neural Networks

Stock market prediction is a long-standing challenge in finance, as accurate forecasts support informed investment decisions. Traditional models rely mainly on historical prices, but recent work shows that financial news can provide useful external signals. This paper investigates a multimodal approach that integrates companies' news articles with their historical stock data to improve prediction performance. We compare a Graph Neural Network (GNN) model with a baseline LSTM model. Historical data for each company is encoded using an LSTM, while news titles are embedded with a language model. These embeddings form nodes in a heterogeneous graph, and GraphSAGE is used to capture interactions between articles, companies, and industries. We evaluate two targets: a binary direction-of-change label and a significance-based label. Experiments on the US equities and Bloomberg datasets show that the GNN outperforms the LSTM baseline, achieving 53% accuracy on the first target and a 4% precision gain on the second. Results also indicate that companies with more associated news yield higher prediction accuracy. Moreover, headlines contain stronger predictive signals than full articles, suggesting that concise news summaries play an important role in short-term market reactions.

Is GPT-OSS All You Need? Benchmarking Large Language Models for Financial Intelligence and the Surprising Efficiency Paradox

The rapid adoption of large language models in financial services necessitates rigorous evaluation frameworks to assess their performance, efficiency, and practical applicability. This paper conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the GPT-OSS model family alongside contemporary LLMs across ten diverse financial NLP tasks. Through extensive experimentation on 120B and 20B parameter variants of GPT-OSS, we reveal a counterintuitive finding: the smaller GPT-OSS-20B model achieves comparable accuracy (65.1% vs 66.5%) while demonstrating superior computational efficiency with 198.4 Token Efficiency Score and 159.80 tokens per second processing speed [1]. Our evaluation encompasses sentiment analysis, question answering, and entity recognition tasks using real-world financial datasets including Financial PhraseBank, FiQA-SA, and FLARE FINERORD. We introduce novel efficiency metrics that capture the trade-off between model performance and resource utilization, providing critical insights for deployment decisions in production environments. The benchmark reveals that GPT-OSS models consistently outperform larger competitors including Qwen3-235B, challenging the prevailing assumption that model scale directly correlates with task performance [2]. Our findings demonstrate that architectural innovations and training strategies in GPT-OSS enable smaller models to achieve competitive performance with significantly reduced computational overhead, offering a pathway toward sustainable and cost-effective deployment of LLMs in financial applications.

MIDG: Mixture of Invariant Experts with knowledge injection for Domain Generalization in Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

Existing methods in domain generalization for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis (MSA) often overlook inter-modal synergies during invariant features extraction, which prevents the accurate capture of the rich semantic information within multimodal data. Additionally, while knowledge injection techniques have been explored in MSA, they often suffer from fragmented cross-modal knowledge, overlooking specific representations that exist beyond the confines of unimodal. To address these limitations, we propose a novel MSA framework designed for domain generalization. Firstly, the framework incorporates a Mixture of Invariant Experts model to extract domain-invariant features, thereby enhancing the model's capacity to learn synergistic relationships between modalities. Secondly, we design a Cross-Modal Adapter to augment the semantic richness of multimodal representations through cross-modal knowledge injection. Extensive domain experiments conducted on three datasets demonstrate that the proposed MIDG achieves superior performance.

Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

Based on Data Balancing and Model Improvement for Multi-Label Sentiment Classification Performance Enhancement

Multi-label sentiment classification plays a vital role in natural language processing by detecting multiple emotions within a single text. However, existing datasets like GoEmotions often suffer from severe class imbalance, which hampers model performance, especially for underrepresented emotions. To address this, we constructed a balanced multi-label sentiment dataset by integrating the original GoEmotions data, emotion-labeled samples from Sentiment140 using a RoBERTa-base-GoEmotions model, and manually annotated texts generated by GPT-4 mini. Our data balancing strategy ensured an even distribution across 28 emotion categories. Based on this dataset, we developed an enhanced multi-label classification model that combines pre-trained FastText embeddings, convolutional layers for local feature extraction, bidirectional LSTM for contextual learning, and an attention mechanism to highlight sentiment-relevant words. A sigmoid-activated output layer enables multi-label prediction, and mixed precision training improves computational efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC compared to models trained on imbalanced data, highlighting the effectiveness of our approach.