Comparing and Contrasting Deep Learning Weather Prediction Backbones on Navier-Stokes and Atmospheric Dynamics

Remarkable progress in the development of Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) models positions them to become competitive with traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Indeed, a wide number of DLWP architectures -- based on various backbones, including U-Net, Transformer, Graph Neural Network (GNN), and Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) -- have demonstrated their potential at forecasting atmospheric states. However, due to differences in training protocols, forecast horizons, and data choices, it remains unclear which (if any) of these methods and architectures are most suitable for weather forecasting and for future model development. Here, we step back and provide a detailed empirical analysis, under controlled conditions, comparing and contrasting the most prominent DLWP models, along with their backbones. We accomplish this by predicting synthetic two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes and real-world global weather dynamics. In terms of accuracy, memory consumption, and runtime, our results illustrate various tradeoffs. For example, on synthetic data, we observe favorable performance of FNO; and on the real-world WeatherBench dataset, our results demonstrate the suitability of ConvLSTM and SwinTransformer for short-to-mid-ranged forecasts. For long-ranged weather rollouts of up to 365 days, we observe superior stability and physical soundness in architectures that formulate a spherical data representation, i.e., GraphCast and Spherical FNO. In addition, we observe that all of these model backbones ``saturate,'' i.e., none of them exhibit so-called neural scaling, which highlights an important direction for future work on these and related models.

Transferring Knowledge from Large Foundation Models to Small Downstream Models

How do we transfer the relevant knowledge from ever larger foundation models into small, task-specific downstream models that can run at much lower costs? Standard transfer learning using pre-trained weights as the initialization transfers limited information and commits us to often massive pre-trained architectures. This procedure also precludes combining multiple pre-trained models that learn complementary information. To address these shortcomings, we introduce Adaptive Feature Transfer (AFT). Instead of transferring weights, AFT operates purely on features, thereby decoupling the choice of the pre-trained model from the smaller downstream model. Rather than indiscriminately compressing all pre-trained features, AFT adaptively transfers pre-trained features that are most useful for performing the downstream task, using a simple regularization that adds minimal overhead. Across multiple vision, language, and multi-modal datasets, AFT achieves significantly better downstream performance compared to alternatives with a similar computational cost. Furthermore, AFT reliably translates improvement in pre-trained models into improvement in downstream performance, even if the downstream model is over $50\times$ smaller, and can effectively transfer complementary information learned by multiple pre-trained models.

Discovering Bias in Latent Space: An Unsupervised Debiasing Approach

The question-answering (QA) capabilities of foundation models are highly sensitive to prompt variations, rendering their performance susceptible to superficial, non-meaning-altering changes. This vulnerability often stems from the model's preference or bias towards specific input characteristics, such as option position or superficial image features in multi-modal settings. We propose to rectify this bias directly in the model's internal representation. Our approach, SteerFair, finds the bias direction in the model's representation space and steers activation values away from it during inference. Specifically, we exploit the observation that bias often adheres to simple association rules, such as the spurious association between the first option and correctness likelihood. Next, we construct demonstrations of these rules from unlabeled samples and use them to identify the bias directions. We empirically show that SteerFair significantly reduces instruction-tuned model performance variance across prompt modifications on three benchmark tasks. Remarkably, our approach surpasses a supervised baseline with 100 labels by an average of 10.86% accuracy points and 12.95 score points and matches the performance with 500 labels.

OmniColor: A Global Camera Pose Optimization Approach of LiDAR-360Camera Fusion for Colorizing Point Clouds

A Colored point cloud, as a simple and efficient 3D representation, has many advantages in various fields, including robotic navigation and scene reconstruction. This representation is now commonly used in 3D reconstruction tasks relying on cameras and LiDARs. However, fusing data from these two types of sensors is poorly performed in many existing frameworks, leading to unsatisfactory mapping results, mainly due to inaccurate camera poses. This paper presents OmniColor, a novel and efficient algorithm to colorize point clouds using an independent 360-degree camera. Given a LiDAR-based point cloud and a sequence of panorama images with initial coarse camera poses, our objective is to jointly optimize the poses of all frames for mapping images onto geometric reconstructions. Our pipeline works in an off-the-shelf manner that does not require any feature extraction or matching process. Instead, we find optimal poses by directly maximizing the photometric consistency of LiDAR maps. In experiments, we show that our method can overcome the severe visual distortion of omnidirectional images and greatly benefit from the wide field of view (FOV) of 360-degree cameras to reconstruct various scenarios with accuracy and stability. The code will be released at https://github.com/liubonan123/OmniColor/.

Using Uncertainty Quantification to Characterize and Improve Out-of-Domain Learning for PDEs

Existing work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has shown that data-driven learning of solution operators can provide a fast approximate alternative to classical numerical partial differential equation (PDE) solvers. Of these, Neural Operators (NOs) have emerged as particularly promising. We observe that several uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for NOs fail for test inputs that are even moderately out-of-domain (OOD), even when the model approximates the solution well for in-domain tasks. To address this limitation, we show that ensembling several NOs can identify high-error regions and provide good uncertainty estimates that are well-correlated with prediction errors. Based on this, we propose a cost-effective alternative, DiverseNO, that mimics the properties of the ensemble by encouraging diverse predictions from its multiple heads in the last feed-forward layer. We then introduce Operator-ProbConserv, a method that uses these well-calibrated UQ estimates within the ProbConserv framework to update the model. Our empirical results show that Operator-ProbConserv enhances OOD model performance for a variety of challenging PDE problems and satisfies physical constraints such as conservation laws.

Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

Explainable AI for Embedded Systems Design: A Case Study of Static Redundant NVM Memory Write Prediction

This paper investigates the application of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in the design of embedded systems using machine learning (ML). As a case study, it addresses the challenging problem of static silent store prediction. This involves identifying redundant memory writes based only on static program features. Eliminating such stores enhances performance and energy efficiency by reducing memory access and bus traffic, especially in the presence of emerging non-volatile memory technologies. To achieve this, we propose a methodology consisting of: 1) the development of relevant ML models for explaining silent store prediction, and 2) the application of XAI to explain these models. We employ two state-of-the-art model-agnostic XAI methods to analyze the causes of silent stores. Through the case study, we evaluate the effectiveness of the methods. We find that these methods provide explanations for silent store predictions, which are consistent with known causes of silent store occurrences from previous studies. Typically, this allows us to confirm the prevalence of silent stores in operations that write the zero constant into memory, or the absence of silent stores in operations involving loop induction variables. This suggests the potential relevance of XAI in analyzing ML models' decision in embedded system design. From the case study, we share some valuable insights and pitfalls we encountered. More generally, this study aims to lay the groundwork for future research in the emerging field of XAI for embedded system design.

Rock Classification Based on Residual Networks

Rock Classification is an essential geological problem since it provides important formation information. However, exploration on this problem using convolutional neural networks is not sufficient. To tackle this problem, we propose two approaches using residual neural networks. We first adopt data augmentation methods to enlarge our dataset. By modifying kernel sizes, normalization methods and composition based on ResNet34, we achieve an accuracy of 70.1% on the test dataset, with an increase of 3.5% compared to regular Resnet34. Furthermore, using a similar backbone like BoTNet that incorporates multihead self attention, we additionally use internal residual connections in our model. This boosts the model's performance, achieving an accuracy of 73.7% on the test dataset. We also explore how the number of bottleneck transformer blocks may influence model performance. We discover that models with more than one bottleneck transformer block may not further improve performance. Finally, we believe that our approach can inspire future work related to this problem and our model design can facilitate the development of new residual model architectures.

Harnessing Machine Learning for Discerning AI-Generated Synthetic Images

In the realm of digital media, the advent of AI-generated synthetic images has introduced significant challenges in distinguishing between real and fabricated visual content. These images, often indistinguishable from authentic ones, pose a threat to the credibility of digital media, with potential implications for disinformation and fraud. Our research addresses this challenge by employing machine learning techniques to discern between AI-generated and genuine images. Central to our approach is the CIFAKE dataset, a comprehensive collection of images labeled as "Real" and "Fake". We refine and adapt advanced deep learning architectures like ResNet, VGGNet, and DenseNet, utilizing transfer learning to enhance their precision in identifying synthetic images. We also compare these with a baseline model comprising a vanilla Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a custom Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The experimental results were significant, demonstrating that our optimized deep learning models outperform traditional methods, with DenseNet achieving an accuracy of 97.74%. Our application study contributes by applying and optimizing these advanced models for synthetic image detection, conducting a comparative analysis using various metrics, and demonstrating their superior capability in identifying AI-generated images over traditional machine learning techniques. This research not only advances the field of digital media integrity but also sets a foundation for future explorations into the ethical and technical dimensions of AI-generated content in digital media.

Deep Non-Parametric Time Series Forecaster

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions by sampling from the empirical distribution according to a tunable strategy. By virtue of this, the model is always able to produce reasonable forecasts (i.e., predictions within the observed data range) without fail unlike classical models that suffer from numerical stability on some data distributions. Moreover, we develop a global version of the proposed method that automatically learns the sampling strategy by exploiting the information across multiple related time series. The empirical evaluation shows that the proposed methods have reasonable and consistent performance across all datasets, proving them to be strong baselines to be considered in one's forecasting toolbox.