Comparing and Contrasting Deep Learning Weather Prediction Backbones on Navier-Stokes and Atmospheric Dynamics

Remarkable progress in the development of Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) models positions them to become competitive with traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Indeed, a wide number of DLWP architectures -- based on various backbones, including U-Net, Transformer, Graph Neural Network (GNN), and Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) -- have demonstrated their potential at forecasting atmospheric states. However, due to differences in training protocols, forecast horizons, and data choices, it remains unclear which (if any) of these methods and architectures are most suitable for weather forecasting and for future model development. Here, we step back and provide a detailed empirical analysis, under controlled conditions, comparing and contrasting the most prominent DLWP models, along with their backbones. We accomplish this by predicting synthetic two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes and real-world global weather dynamics. In terms of accuracy, memory consumption, and runtime, our results illustrate various tradeoffs. For example, on synthetic data, we observe favorable performance of FNO; and on the real-world WeatherBench dataset, our results demonstrate the suitability of ConvLSTM and SwinTransformer for short-to-mid-ranged forecasts. For long-ranged weather rollouts of up to 365 days, we observe superior stability and physical soundness in architectures that formulate a spherical data representation, i.e., GraphCast and Spherical FNO. In addition, we observe that all of these model backbones ``saturate,'' i.e., none of them exhibit so-called neural scaling, which highlights an important direction for future work on these and related models.

Transferring Knowledge from Large Foundation Models to Small Downstream Models

How do we transfer the relevant knowledge from ever larger foundation models into small, task-specific downstream models that can run at much lower costs? Standard transfer learning using pre-trained weights as the initialization transfers limited information and commits us to often massive pre-trained architectures. This procedure also precludes combining multiple pre-trained models that learn complementary information. To address these shortcomings, we introduce Adaptive Feature Transfer (AFT). Instead of transferring weights, AFT operates purely on features, thereby decoupling the choice of the pre-trained model from the smaller downstream model. Rather than indiscriminately compressing all pre-trained features, AFT adaptively transfers pre-trained features that are most useful for performing the downstream task, using a simple regularization that adds minimal overhead. Across multiple vision, language, and multi-modal datasets, AFT achieves significantly better downstream performance compared to alternatives with a similar computational cost. Furthermore, AFT reliably translates improvement in pre-trained models into improvement in downstream performance, even if the downstream model is over $50\times$ smaller, and can effectively transfer complementary information learned by multiple pre-trained models.

Discovering Bias in Latent Space: An Unsupervised Debiasing Approach

The question-answering (QA) capabilities of foundation models are highly sensitive to prompt variations, rendering their performance susceptible to superficial, non-meaning-altering changes. This vulnerability often stems from the model's preference or bias towards specific input characteristics, such as option position or superficial image features in multi-modal settings. We propose to rectify this bias directly in the model's internal representation. Our approach, SteerFair, finds the bias direction in the model's representation space and steers activation values away from it during inference. Specifically, we exploit the observation that bias often adheres to simple association rules, such as the spurious association between the first option and correctness likelihood. Next, we construct demonstrations of these rules from unlabeled samples and use them to identify the bias directions. We empirically show that SteerFair significantly reduces instruction-tuned model performance variance across prompt modifications on three benchmark tasks. Remarkably, our approach surpasses a supervised baseline with 100 labels by an average of 10.86% accuracy points and 12.95 score points and matches the performance with 500 labels.

CoMM: Collaborative Multi-Agent, Multi-Reasoning-Path Prompting for Complex Problem Solving

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great ability in solving traditional natural language tasks and elementary reasoning tasks with appropriate prompting techniques. However, their ability is still limited in solving complicated science problems. In this work, we aim to push the upper bound of the reasoning capability of LLMs by proposing a collaborative multi-agent, multi-reasoning-path (CoMM) prompting framework. Specifically, we prompt LLMs to play different roles in a problem-solving team, and encourage different role-play agents to collaboratively solve the target task. In particular, we discover that applying different reasoning paths for different roles is an effective strategy to implement few-shot prompting approaches in the multi-agent scenarios. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods on two college-level science problems over competitive baselines. Our further analysis shows the necessity of prompting LLMs to play different roles or experts independently. We release the code at: https://github.com/amazon-science/comm-prompt

Bridging Remote Sensors with Multisensor Geospatial Foundation Models

In the realm of geospatial analysis, the diversity of remote sensors, encompassing both optical and microwave technologies, offers a wealth of distinct observational capabilities. Recognizing this, we present msGFM, a multisensor geospatial foundation model that effectively unifies data from four key sensor modalities. This integration spans an expansive dataset of two million multisensor images. msGFM is uniquely adept at handling both paired and unpaired sensor data. For data originating from identical geolocations, our model employs an innovative cross-sensor pretraining approach in masked image modeling, enabling the synthesis of joint representations from diverse sensors. msGFM, incorporating four remote sensors, upholds strong performance, forming a comprehensive model adaptable to various sensor types. msGFM has demonstrated enhanced proficiency in a range of both single-sensor and multisensor downstream tasks. These include scene classification, segmentation, cloud removal, and pan-sharpening. A key discovery of our research is that representations derived from natural images are not always compatible with the distinct characteristics of geospatial remote sensors, underscoring the limitations of existing representations in this field. Our work can serve as a guide for developing multisensor geospatial pretraining models, paving the way for more advanced geospatial capabilities.

PipeRAG: Fast Retrieval-Augmented Generation via Algorithm-System Co-design

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) can enhance the generation quality of large language models (LLMs) by incorporating external token databases. However, retrievals from large databases can constitute a substantial portion of the overall generation time, particularly when retrievals are periodically performed to align the retrieved content with the latest states of generation. In this paper, we introduce PipeRAG, a novel algorithm-system co-design approach to reduce generation latency and enhance generation quality. PipeRAG integrates (1) pipeline parallelism to enable concurrent retrieval and generation processes, (2) flexible retrieval intervals to maximize the efficiency of pipeline parallelism, and (3) a performance model to automatically balance retrieval quality and latency based on the generation states and underlying hardware. Our evaluation shows that, by combining the three aforementioned methods, PipeRAG achieves up to 2.6$\times$ speedup in end-to-end generation latency while improving generation quality. These promising results showcase the effectiveness of co-designing algorithms with underlying systems, paving the way for the adoption of PipeRAG in future RAG systems.

CaMML: Context-Aware Multimodal Learner for Large Models

In this work, we introduce Context-Aware MultiModal Learner (CaMML), for tuning large multimodal models (LMMs). CaMML, a lightweight module, is crafted to seamlessly integrate multimodal contextual samples into large models, thereby empowering the model to derive knowledge from analogous, domain-specific, up-to-date information and make grounded inferences. Importantly, CaMML is highly scalable and can efficiently handle lengthy multimodal context examples owing to its hierarchical design. Based on CaMML, we have developed two multimodal models, CaMML-7B and CaMML-13B, that have shown exceptional performance across an array of benchmark datasets for multimodal tasks. Remarkably, CaMML-13B achieves the state-of-the-art performance on over ten widely recognized multimodal benchmark datasets, surpassing LLaVA-1.5 (13B) with a noticeable margin, without integration of any external resources. Moreover, we have conducted extensive ablative studies to inspect the inner workings of CaMML and performed qualitative analyses to showcase its effectiveness in handling real-world challenging cases.

Lightweight In-Context Tuning for Multimodal Unified Models

In-context learning (ICL) involves reasoning from given contextual examples. As more modalities comes, this procedure is becoming more challenging as the interleaved input modalities convolutes the understanding process. This is exemplified by the observation that multimodal models often struggle to effectively extrapolate from contextual examples to perform ICL. To address these challenges, we introduce MultiModal In-conteXt Tuning (M$^2$IXT), a lightweight module to enhance the ICL capabilities of multimodal unified models. The proposed M$^2$IXT module perceives an expandable context window to incorporate various labeled examples of multiple modalities (e.g., text, image, and coordinates). It can be prepended to various multimodal unified models (e.g., OFA, Unival, LLaVA) of different architectures and trained via a mixed-tasks strategy to enable rapid few-shot adaption on multiple tasks and datasets. When tuned on as little as 50K multimodal data, M$^2$IXT can boost the few-shot ICL performance significantly (e.g., 18\% relative increase for OFA), and obtained state-of-the-art results across an array of tasks including visual question answering, image captioning, visual grounding, and visual entailment, while being considerably small in terms of model parameters (e.g., $\sim$$20\times$ smaller than Flamingo or MMICL), highlighting the flexibility and effectiveness of M$^2$IXT as a multimodal in-context learner.

PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models

Earth system forecasting has traditionally relied on complex physical models that are computationally expensive and require significant domain expertise. In the past decade, the unprecedented increase in spatiotemporal Earth observation data has enabled data-driven forecasting models using deep learning techniques. These models have shown promise for diverse Earth system forecasting tasks but either struggle with handling uncertainty or neglect domain-specific prior knowledge, resulting in averaging possible futures to blurred forecasts or generating physically implausible predictions. To address these limitations, we propose a two-stage pipeline for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting: 1) We develop PreDiff, a conditional latent diffusion model capable of probabilistic forecasts. 2) We incorporate an explicit knowledge control mechanism to align forecasts with domain-specific physical constraints. This is achieved by estimating the deviation from imposed constraints at each denoising step and adjusting the transition distribution accordingly. We conduct empirical studies on two datasets: N-body MNIST, a synthetic dataset with chaotic behavior, and SEVIR, a real-world precipitation nowcasting dataset. Specifically, we impose the law of conservation of energy in N-body MNIST and anticipated precipitation intensity in SEVIR. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of PreDiff in handling uncertainty, incorporating domain-specific prior knowledge, and generating forecasts that exhibit high operational utility.

Wrapped Cauchy Distributed Angular Softmax for Long-Tailed Visual Recognition

Addressing imbalanced or long-tailed data is a major challenge in visual recognition tasks due to disparities between training and testing distributions and issues with data noise. We propose the Wrapped Cauchy Distributed Angular Softmax (WCDAS), a novel softmax function that incorporates data-wise Gaussian-based kernels into the angular correlation between feature representations and classifier weights, effectively mitigating noise and sparse sampling concerns. The class-wise distribution of angular representation becomes a sum of these kernels. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the wrapped Cauchy distribution excels the Gaussian distribution in approximating mixed distributions. Additionally, WCDAS uses trainable concentration parameters to dynamically adjust the compactness and margin of each class. Empirical results confirm label-aware behavior in these parameters and demonstrate WCDAS's superiority over other state-of-the-art softmax-based methods in handling long-tailed visual recognition across multiple benchmark datasets. The code is public available.