Cost-Effective Incentive Allocation via Structured Counterfactual Inference

We address a practical problem ubiquitous in modern industry, in which a mediator tries to learn a policy for allocating strategic financial incentives for customers in a marketing campaign and observes only bandit feedback. In contrast to traditional policy optimization frameworks, we rely on a specific assumption for the reward structure and we incorporate budget constraints. We develop a new two-step method for solving this constrained counterfactual policy optimization problem. First, we cast the reward estimation problem as a domain adaptation problem with supplementary structure. Subsequently, the estimators are used for optimizing the policy with constraints. We establish theoretical error bounds for our estimation procedure and we empirically show that the approach leads to significant improvement on both synthetic and real datasets.

Value Propagation for Decentralized Networked Deep Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

We consider the networked multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problem in a fully decentralized setting, where agents learn to coordinate to achieve the joint success. This problem is widely encountered in many areas including traffic control, distributed control, and smart grids. We assume that the reward function for each agent can be different and observed only locally by the agent itself. Furthermore, each agent is located at a node of a communication network and can exchanges information only with its neighbors. Using softmax temporal consistency and a decentralized optimization method, we obtain a principled and data-efficient iterative algorithm. In the first step of each iteration, an agent computes its local policy and value gradients and then updates only policy parameters. In the second step, the agent propagates to its neighbors the messages based on its value function and then updates its own value function. Hence we name the algorithm value propagation. We prove a non-asymptotic convergence rate 1/T with the nonlinear function approximation. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first MARL algorithm with convergence guarantee in the control, off-policy and non-linear function approximation setting. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in experiments.

Neural Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Recommendation

There are great interests as well as many challenges in applying reinforcement learning (RL) to recommendation systems. In this setting, an online user is the environment; neither the reward function nor the environment dynamics are clearly defined, making the application of RL challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel model-based reinforcement learning framework for recommendation systems, where we develop a generative adversarial network to imitate user behavior dynamics and learn her reward function. Using this user model as the simulation environment, we develop a novel DQN algorithm to obtain a combinatorial recommendation policy which can handle a large number of candidate items efficiently. In our experiments with real data, we show this generative adversarial user model can better explain user behavior than alternatives, and the RL policy based on this model can lead to a better long-term reward for the user and higher click rate for the system.

Double Neural Counterfactual Regret Minimization

Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CRF) is a fundamental and effective technique for solving Imperfect Information Games (IIG). However, the original CRF algorithm only works for discrete state and action spaces, and the resulting strategy is maintained as a tabular representation. Such tabular representation limits the method from being directly applied to large games and continuing to improve from a poor strategy profile. In this paper, we propose a double neural representation for the imperfect information games, where one neural network represents the cumulative regret, and the other represents the average strategy. Furthermore, we adopt the counterfactual regret minimization algorithm to optimize this double neural representation. To make neural learning efficient, we also developed several novel techniques including a robust sampling method, mini-batch Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization (MCCFR) and Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization Plus (MCCFR+) which may be of independent interests. Experimentally, we demonstrate that the proposed double neural algorithm converges significantly better than the reinforcement learning counterpart.

A Policy Gradient Method with Variance Reduction for Uplift Modeling

Uplift modeling aims to directly model the incremental impact of a treatment on an individual response. It has been widely and successfully used in healthcare analytics and business operations, where one tries to measure the net effect of a new medicine on patients or to understand the impact of a marketing campaign on company revenue. In this work, we address the problem from a new angle and reformulate it as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). This new formulation allows us to handle the lack of explicit labels, to deal with any number of actions (in comparison to the normal two action uplift modeling), and to apply it to applications with responses of general types, which is a challenging task for previous methods. Furthermore, we also design an unbiased metric for more accurate offline evaluation of uplift effects, set up a better reward function for the policy gradient method to solve the problem and adopt some action-based baselines to reduce variance. We conducted extensive experiments on both a synthetic dataset and real-world scenarios, and showed that our method can achieve significant improvement over previous methods.

GeniePath: Graph Neural Networks with Adaptive Receptive Paths

We present, GeniePath, a scalable approach for learning adaptive receptive fields of neural networks defined on permutation invariant graph data. In GeniePath, we propose an adaptive path layer consists of two complementary functions designed for breadth and depth exploration respectively, where the former learns the importance of different sized neighborhoods, while the latter extracts and filters signals aggregated from neighbors of different hops away. Our method works in both transductive and inductive settings, and extensive experiments compared with competitive methods show that our approaches yield state-of-the-art results on large graphs.

Latent Dirichlet Allocation for Internet Price War

Internet market makers are always facing intense competitive environment, where personalized price reductions or discounted coupons are provided for attracting more customers. Participants in such a price war scenario have to invest a lot to catch up with other competitors. However, such a huge cost of money may not always lead to an improvement of market share. This is mainly due to a lack of information about others' strategies or customers' willingness when participants develop their strategies. In order to obtain this hidden information through observable data, we study the relationship between companies and customers in the Internet price war. Theoretically, we provide a formalization of the problem as a stochastic game with imperfect and incomplete information. Then we develop a variant of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to infer latent variables under the current market environment, which represents the preferences of customers and strategies of competitors. To our best knowledge, it is the first time that LDA is applied to game scenario. We conduct simulated experiments where our LDA model exhibits a significant improvement on finding strategies in the Internet price war by including all available market information of the market maker's competitors. And the model is applied to an open dataset for real business. Through comparisons on the likelihood of prediction for users' behavior and distribution distance between inferred opponent's strategy and the real one, our model is shown to be able to provide a better understanding for the market environment. Our work marks a successful learning method to infer latent information in the environment of price war by the LDA modeling, and sets an example for related competitive applications to follow.

Asynchronous Distributed Variational Gaussian Processes for Regression

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric function estimators. However, their applications are largely limited by the expensive computational cost of the inference procedures. Existing stochastic or distributed synchronous variational inferences, although have alleviated this issue by scaling up GPs to millions of samples, are still far from satisfactory for real-world large applications, where the data sizes are often orders of magnitudes larger, say, billions. To solve this problem, we propose ADVGP, the first Asynchronous Distributed Variational Gaussian Process inference for regression, on the recent large-scale machine learning platform, PARAMETERSERVER. ADVGP uses a novel, flexible variational framework based on a weight space augmentation, and implements the highly efficient, asynchronous proximal gradient optimization. While maintaining comparable or better predictive performance, ADVGP greatly improves upon the efficiency of the existing variational methods. With ADVGP, we effortlessly scale up GP regression to a real-world application with billions of samples and demonstrate an excellent, superior prediction accuracy to the popular linear models.

Distributed Flexible Nonlinear Tensor Factorization

Tensor factorization is a powerful tool to analyse multi-way data. Compared with traditional multi-linear methods, nonlinear tensor factorization models are capable of capturing more complex relationships in the data. However, they are computationally expensive and may suffer severe learning bias in case of extreme data sparsity. To overcome these limitations, in this paper we propose a distributed, flexible nonlinear tensor factorization model. Our model can effectively avoid the expensive computations and structural restrictions of the Kronecker-product in existing TGP formulations, allowing an arbitrary subset of tensorial entries to be selected to contribute to the training. At the same time, we derive a tractable and tight variational evidence lower bound (ELBO) that enables highly decoupled, parallel computations and high-quality inference. Based on the new bound, we develop a distributed inference algorithm in the MapReduce framework, which is key-value-free and can fully exploit the memory cache mechanism in fast MapReduce systems such as SPARK. Experimental results fully demonstrate the advantages of our method over several state-of-the-art approaches, in terms of both predictive performance and computational efficiency. Moreover, our approach shows a promising potential in the application of Click-Through-Rate (CTR) prediction for online advertising.

EigenGP: Gaussian Process Models with Adaptive Eigenfunctions

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a nonparametric representation of functions. However, classical GP inference suffers from high computational cost for big data. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian approach, EigenGP, that learns both basis dictionary elements--eigenfunctions of a GP prior--and prior precisions in a sparse finite model. It is well known that, among all orthogonal basis functions, eigenfunctions can provide the most compact representation. Unlike other sparse Bayesian finite models where the basis function has a fixed form, our eigenfunctions live in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space as a finite linear combination of kernel functions. We learn the dictionary elements--eigenfunctions--and the prior precisions over these elements as well as all the other hyperparameters from data by maximizing the model marginal likelihood. We explore computational linear algebra to simplify the gradient computation significantly. Our experimental results demonstrate improved predictive performance of EigenGP over alternative sparse GP methods as well as relevance vector machine.