Fuxi-DA: A Generalized Deep Learning Data Assimilation Framework for Assimilating Satellite Observations

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the development of an efficient DA system poses significant challenges, particularly in establishing intricate relationships between the background data and the vast amount of multi-source observation data within limited time windows in operational settings. To address these challenges, researchers design complex pre-processing methods for each observation type, leveraging approximate modeling and the power of super-computing clusters to expedite solutions. The emergence of deep learning (DL) models has been a game-changer, offering unified multi-modal modeling, enhanced nonlinear representation capabilities, and superior parallelization. These advantages have spurred efforts to integrate DL models into various domains of weather modeling. Remarkably, DL models have shown promise in matching, even surpassing, the forecast accuracy of leading operational NWP models worldwide. This success motivates the exploration of DL-based DA frameworks tailored for weather forecasting models. In this study, we introduces FuxiDA, a generalized DL-based DA framework for assimilating satellite observations. By assimilating data from Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) aboard Fengyun-4B, FuXi-DA consistently mitigates analysis errors and significantly improves forecast performance. Furthermore, through a series of single-observation experiments, Fuxi-DA has been validated against established atmospheric physics, demonstrating its consistency and reliability.

Is Artificial Intelligence Providing the Second Revolution for Weather Forecasting?

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in recent years, has led to the emergence of several large parameter artificial intelligence weather forecast models. These models represent a significant breakthrough, overcoming the limitations of traditional numerical weather prediction models and indicating a potential second revolution for weather forecast. This study explores the evolution of these advanced artificial intelligence forecast models, and based on the identified commonalities, proposes the "Three Large Rules" for their development. We discuss the potential of artificial intelligence in revolutionizing numerical weather prediction, briefly outlining the underlying reasons for this potential. Additionally, we explore key areas for future development prospects for large artificial intelligence weather forecast models, integrating the entire numerical prediction process. Through an example that combines a large artificial intelligence model with ocean wave forecasting, we illustrate how forecasters can adapt and leverage the advanced artificial intelligence model. While acknowledging the high accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of deployment of large artificial intelligence forecast models, we emphasize the irreplaceable values of traditional numerical forecasts. We believe that the optimal future of weather forecasting lies in achieving a seamless integration of artificial intelligence and traditional numerical models. Such a synthesis is anticipated to offer a more comprehensive and reliable approach for future weather forecasting.

FuXi-S2S: An accurate machine learning model for global subseasonal forecasts

Skillful subseasonal forecasts beyond 2 weeks are crucial for a wide range of applications across various sectors of society. Recently, state-of-the-art machine learning based weather forecasting models have made significant advancements, outperforming the high-resolution forecast (HRES) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, the full potential of machine learning models in subseasonal forecasts has yet to be fully explored. In this study, we introduce FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning based subseasonal forecasting model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, covering 5 upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S integrates an enhanced FuXi base model with a perturbation module for flow-dependent perturbations in hidden features, and incorporates Perlin noise to perturb initial conditions. The model is developed using 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. When compared to the ECMWF Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) reforecasts, the FuXi-S2S forecasts demonstrate superior deterministic and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation (TP), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and geopotential at 500 hPa (Z500). Although it shows slightly inferior performance in predicting 2-meter temperature (T2M), it has clear advantages over land area. Regarding the extreme forecasts, FuXi-S2S outperforms ECMWF S2S globally for TP. Furthermore, FuXi-S2S forecasts surpass the ECMWF S2S reforecasts in predicting the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key source of subseasonal predictability. They extend the skillful prediction of MJO from 30 days to 36 days.

Machine Learning Parameterization of the Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) Convection Scheme

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Few-shot Hybrid Domain Adaptation of Image Generators

Can a pre-trained generator be adapted to the hybrid of multiple target domains and generate images with integrated attributes of them? In this work, we introduce a new task -- Few-shot Hybrid Domain Adaptation (HDA). Given a source generator and several target domains, HDA aims to acquire an adapted generator that preserves the integrated attributes of all target domains, without overriding the source domain's characteristics. Compared with Domain Adaptation (DA), HDA offers greater flexibility and versatility to adapt generators to more composite and expansive domains. Simultaneously, HDA also presents more challenges than DA as we have access only to images from individual target domains and lack authentic images from the hybrid domain. To address this issue, we introduce a discriminator-free framework that directly encodes different domains' images into well-separable subspaces. To achieve HDA, we propose a novel directional subspace loss comprised of a distance loss and a direction loss. Concretely, the distance loss blends the attributes of all target domains by reducing the distances from generated images to all target subspaces. The direction loss preserves the characteristics from the source domain by guiding the adaptation along the perpendicular to subspaces. Experiments show that our method can obtain numerous domain-specific attributes in a single adapted generator, which surpasses the baseline methods in semantic similarity, image fidelity, and cross-domain consistency.

FuXi-Extreme: Improving extreme rainfall and wind forecasts with diffusion model

Significant advancements in the development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting have produced remarkable results. State-of-the-art ML-based weather forecast models, such as FuXi, have demonstrated superior statistical forecast performance in comparison to the high-resolution forecasts (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, ML models face a common challenge: as forecast lead times increase, they tend to generate increasingly smooth predictions, leading to an underestimation of the intensity of extreme weather events. To address this challenge, we developed the FuXi-Extreme model, which employs a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to restore finer-scale details in the surface forecast data generated by the FuXi model in 5-day forecasts. An evaluation of extreme total precipitation ($\textrm{TP}$), 10-meter wind speed ($\textrm{WS10}$), and 2-meter temperature ($\textrm{T2M}$) illustrates the superior performance of FuXi-Extreme over both FuXi and HRES. Moreover, when evaluating tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts based on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset, both FuXi and FuXi-Extreme shows superior performance in TC track forecasts compared to HRES, but they show inferior performance in TC intensity forecasts in comparison to HRES.

FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.