This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.
To ensure safe driving in dynamic environments, autonomous vehicles should possess the capability to accurately predict the lane change intentions of surrounding vehicles in advance and forecast their future trajectories. Existing motion prediction approaches have ample room for improvement, particularly in terms of long-term prediction accuracy and interpretability. In this paper, we address these challenges by proposing LC-LLM, an explainable lane change prediction model that leverages the strong reasoning capabilities and self-explanation abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Essentially, we reformulate the lane change prediction task as a language modeling problem, processing heterogeneous driving scenario information in natural language as prompts for input into the LLM and employing a supervised fine-tuning technique to tailor the LLM specifically for our lane change prediction task. This allows us to utilize the LLM's powerful common sense reasoning abilities to understand complex interactive information, thereby improving the accuracy of long-term predictions. Furthermore, we incorporate explanatory requirements into the prompts in the inference stage. Therefore, our LC-LLM model not only can predict lane change intentions and trajectories but also provides explanations for its predictions, enhancing the interpretability. Extensive experiments on the large-scale highD dataset demonstrate the superior performance and interpretability of our LC-LLM in lane change prediction task. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to utilize LLMs for predicting lane change behavior. Our study shows that LLMs can encode comprehensive interaction information for driving behavior understanding.
Human annotation of training samples is expensive, laborious, and sometimes challenging, especially for Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. To reduce the labeling cost and enhance the sample efficiency, Active Learning (AL) technique can be used to label as few samples as possible to reach a reasonable or similar results. To reduce even more costs and with the significant advances of Large Language Models (LLMs), LLMs can be a good candidate to annotate samples. This work investigates the accuracy and cost of using LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) to label samples on 3 different datasets. A consistency-based strategy is proposed to select samples that are potentially incorrectly labeled so that human annotations can be used for those samples in AL settings, and we call it mixed annotation strategy. Then we test performance of AL under two different settings: (1) using human annotations only; (2) using the proposed mixed annotation strategy. The accuracy of AL models under 3 AL query strategies are reported on 3 text classification datasets, i.e., AG's News, TREC-6, and Rotten Tomatoes. On AG's News and Rotten Tomatoes, the models trained with the mixed annotation strategy achieves similar or better results compared to that with human annotations. The method reveals great potentials of LLMs as annotators in terms of accuracy and cost efficiency in active learning settings.
Traffic accidents, being a significant contributor to both human casualties and property damage, have long been a focal point of research for many scholars in the field of traffic safety. However, previous studies, whether focusing on static environmental assessments or dynamic driving analyses, as well as pre-accident predictions or post-accident rule analyses, have typically been conducted in isolation. There has been a lack of an effective framework for developing a comprehensive understanding and application of traffic safety. To address this gap, this paper introduces AccidentGPT, a comprehensive accident analysis and prevention multi-modal large model. AccidentGPT establishes a multi-modal information interaction framework grounded in multi-sensor perception, thereby enabling a holistic approach to accident analysis and prevention in the field of traffic safety. Specifically, our capabilities can be categorized as follows: for autonomous driving vehicles, we provide comprehensive environmental perception and understanding to control the vehicle and avoid collisions. For human-driven vehicles, we offer proactive long-range safety warnings and blind-spot alerts while also providing safety driving recommendations and behavioral norms through human-machine dialogue and interaction. Additionally, for traffic police and management agencies, our framework supports intelligent and real-time analysis of traffic safety, encompassing pedestrian, vehicles, roads, and the environment through collaborative perception from multiple vehicles and road testing devices. The system is also capable of providing a thorough analysis of accident causes and liability after vehicle collisions. Our framework stands as the first large model to integrate comprehensive scene understanding into traffic safety studies. Project page: https://accidentgpt.github.io
Traffic accidents, being a significant contributor to both human casualties and property damage, have long been a focal point of research for many scholars in the field of traffic safety. However, previous studies, whether focusing on static environmental assessments or dynamic driving analyses, as well as pre-accident predictions or post-accident rule analyses, have typically been conducted in isolation. There has been a lack of an effective framework for developing a comprehensive understanding and application of traffic safety. To address this gap, this paper introduces AccidentGPT, a comprehensive accident analysis and prevention multi-modal large model. AccidentGPT establishes a multi-modal information interaction framework grounded in multi-sensor perception, thereby enabling a holistic approach to accident analysis and prevention in the field of traffic safety. Specifically, our capabilities can be categorized as follows: for autonomous driving vehicles, we provide comprehensive environmental perception and understanding to control the vehicle and avoid collisions. For human-driven vehicles, we offer proactive long-range safety warnings and blind-spot alerts while also providing safety driving recommendations and behavioral norms through human-machine dialogue and interaction. Additionally, for traffic police and management agencies, our framework supports intelligent and real-time analysis of traffic safety, encompassing pedestrian, vehicles, roads, and the environment through collaborative perception from multiple vehicles and road testing devices. The system is also capable of providing a thorough analysis of accident causes and liability after vehicle collisions. Our framework stands as the first large model to integrate comprehensive scene understanding into traffic safety studies.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to significantly revolutionize society by providing a secure and efficient mode of transportation. Recent years have witnessed notable advance-ments in autonomous driving perception and prediction, but the challenge of validating the performance of AVs remains largely unresolved. Data-driven microscopic traffic simulation has be-come an important tool for autonomous driving testing due to 1) availability of high-fidelity traffic data; 2) its advantages of ena-bling large-scale testing and scenario reproducibility; and 3) its potential in reactive and realistic traffic simulation. However, a comprehensive review of this topic is currently lacking. This pa-per aims to fill this gap by summarizing relevant studies. The primary objective of this paper is to review current research ef-forts and provide a futuristic perspective that will benefit future developments in the field. It introduces the general issues of data-driven traffic simulation and outlines key concepts and terms. After overviewing traffic simulation, various datasets and evalua-tion metrics commonly used are reviewed. The paper then offers a comprehensive evaluation of imitation learning, reinforcement learning, generative and deep learning methods, summarizing each and analyzing their advantages and disadvantages in detail. Moreover, it evaluates the state-of-the-art, existing challenges, and future research directions.
Prediction, decision-making, and motion planning are essential for autonomous driving. In most contemporary works, they are considered as individual modules or combined into a multi-task learning paradigm with a shared backbone but separate task heads. However, we argue that they should be integrated into a comprehensive framework. Although several recent approaches follow this scheme, they suffer from complicated input representations and redundant framework designs. More importantly, they can not make long-term predictions about future driving scenarios. To address these issues, we rethink the necessity of each module in an autonomous driving task and incorporate only the required modules into a minimalist autonomous driving framework. We propose BEVGPT, a generative pre-trained large model that integrates driving scenario prediction, decision-making, and motion planning. The model takes the bird's-eye-view (BEV) images as the only input source and makes driving decisions based on surrounding traffic scenarios. To ensure driving trajectory feasibility and smoothness, we develop an optimization-based motion planning method. We instantiate BEVGPT on Lyft Level 5 Dataset and use Woven Planet L5Kit for realistic driving simulation. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework are verified by the fact that it outperforms previous methods in 100% decision-making metrics and 66% motion planning metrics. Furthermore, the ability of our framework to accurately generate BEV images over the long term is demonstrated through the task of driving scenario prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first generative pre-trained large model for autonomous driving prediction, decision-making, and motion planning with only BEV images as input.
Interaction between the background vehicles (BVs) and automated vehicles (AVs) in scenario-based testing plays a critical role in evaluating the intelligence of the AVs. Current testing scenarios typically employ predefined or scripted BVs, which inadequately reflect the complexity of human-like social behaviors in real-world driving scenarios, and also lack a systematic metric for evaluating the comprehensive intelligence of AVs. Therefore, this paper proposes an evolving scenario generation method that utilizes deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to create human-like BVs for testing and intelligence evaluation of AVs. Firstly, a class of driver models with human-like competitive, cooperative, and mutual driving motivations is designed. Then, utilizing an improved "level-k" training procedure, the three distinct driver models acquire game-based interactive driving policies. And these models are assigned to BVs for generating evolving scenarios in which all BVs can interact continuously and evolve diverse contents. Next, a framework including safety, driving efficiency, and interaction utility are presented to evaluate and quantify the intelligence performance of 3 systems under test (SUTs), indicating the effectiveness of the evolving scenario for intelligence testing. Finally, the complexity and fidelity of the proposed evolving testing scenario are validated. The results demonstrate that the proposed evolving scenario exhibits the highest level of complexity compared to other baseline scenarios and has more than 85% similarity to naturalistic driving data. This highlights the potential of the proposed method to facilitate the development and evaluation of high-level AVs in a realistic and challenging environment.
With the rapid growth of software scale and complexity, a large number of bug reports are submitted to the bug tracking system. In order to speed up defect repair, these reports need to be accurately classified so that they can be sent to the appropriate developers. However, the existing classification methods only use the text information of the bug report, which leads to their low performance. To solve the above problems, this paper proposes a new automatic classification method for bug reports. The innovation is that when categorizing bug reports, in addition to using the text information of the report, the intention of the report (i.e. suggestion or explanation) is also considered, thereby improving the performance of the classification. First, we collect bug reports from four ecosystems (Apache, Eclipse, Gentoo, Mozilla) and manually annotate them to construct an experimental data set. Then, we use Natural Language Processing technology to preprocess the data. On this basis, BERT and TF-IDF are used to extract the features of the intention and the multiple text information. Finally, the features are used to train the classifiers. The experimental result on five classifiers (including K-Nearest Neighbor, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest) show that our proposed method achieves better performance and its F-Measure achieves from 87.3% to 95.5%.
As a randomized learner model, SCNs are remarkable that the random weights and biases are assigned employing a supervisory mechanism to ensure universal approximation and fast learning. However, the randomness makes SCNs more likely to generate approximate linear correlative nodes that are redundant and low quality, thereby resulting in non-compact network structure. In the light of a fundamental principle in machine learning, that is, a model with fewer parameters holds improved generalization. This paper proposes orthogonal SCN, termed OSCN, to filtrate out the low-quality hidden nodes for network structure reduction by incorporating Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization technology. The universal approximation property of OSCN and an adaptive setting for the key construction parameters have been presented in details. In addition, an incremental updating scheme is developed to dynamically determine the output weights, contributing to improved computational efficiency. Finally, experimental results on two numerical examples and several real-world regression and classification datasets substantiate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach.