Optimal Transport for Structure Learning Under Missing Data

Causal discovery in the presence of missing data introduces a chicken-and-egg dilemma. While the goal is to recover the true causal structure, robust imputation requires considering the dependencies or preferably causal relations among variables. Merely filling in missing values with existing imputation methods and subsequently applying structure learning on the complete data is empirical shown to be sub-optimal. To this end, we propose in this paper a score-based algorithm, based on optimal transport, for learning causal structure from missing data. This optimal transport viewpoint diverges from existing score-based approaches that are dominantly based on EM. We project structure learning as a density fitting problem, where the goal is to find the causal model that induces a distribution of minimum Wasserstein distance with the distribution over the observed data. Through extensive simulations and real-data experiments, our framework is shown to recover the true causal graphs more effectively than the baselines in various simulations and real-data experiments. Empirical evidences also demonstrate the superior scalability of our approach, along with the flexibility to incorporate any off-the-shelf causal discovery methods for complete data.

Bayesian Factorised Granger-Causal Graphs For Multivariate Time-series Data

We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more recent developments using deep neural networks. Most existing VAR methods for Granger causality use sparsity-inducing penalties/priors or post-hoc thresholds to interpret their coefficients as Granger causal graphs. Instead, we propose a new Bayesian VAR model with a hierarchical graph prior over binary Granger causal graphs, separately from the VAR coefficients. We develop an efficient algorithm to infer the posterior over binary Granger causal graphs. Our method provides better uncertainty quantification, has less hyperparameters, and achieves better performance than competing approaches, especially on sparse multivariate time-series data.

Variational DAG Estimation via State Augmentation With Stochastic Permutations

Estimating the structure of a Bayesian network, in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), from observational data is a statistically and computationally hard problem with essential applications in areas such as causal discovery. Bayesian approaches are a promising direction for solving this task, as they allow for uncertainty quantification and deal with well-known identifiability issues. From a probabilistic inference perspective, the main challenges are (i) representing distributions over graphs that satisfy the DAG constraint and (ii) estimating a posterior over the underlying combinatorial space. We propose an approach that addresses these challenges by formulating a joint distribution on an augmented space of DAGs and permutations. We carry out posterior estimation via variational inference, where we exploit continuous relaxations of discrete distributions. We show that our approach can outperform competitive Bayesian and non-Bayesian benchmarks on a range of synthetic and real datasets.

Contextual directed acyclic graphs

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data remains a significant challenge in machine learning. Most research in this area concentrates on learning a single DAG for the entire population. This paper considers an alternative setting where the graph structure varies across individuals based on available "contextual" features. We tackle this contextual DAG problem via a neural network that maps the contextual features to a DAG, represented as a weighted adjacency matrix. The neural network is equipped with a novel projection layer that ensures the output matrices are sparse and satisfy a recently developed characterization of acyclicity. We devise a scalable computational framework for learning contextual DAGs and provide a convergence guarantee and an analytical gradient for backpropagating through the projection layer. Our experiments suggest that the new approach can recover the true context-specific graph where existing approaches fail.

Free-Form Variational Inference for Gaussian Process State-Space Models

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Recurrent Neural Networks and Universal Approximation of Bayesian Filters

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and observation models. Instead, we formulate a generic recurrent neural network framework and seek to learn directly a recursive mapping from observational inputs to the desired estimator statistics. The main focus of this article is the approximation capabilities of this framework. We provide approximation error bounds for filtering in general non-compact domains. We also consider strong time-uniform approximation error bounds that guarantee good long-time performance. We discuss and illustrate a number of practical concerns and implications of these results.

Addressing Over-Smoothing in Graph Neural Networks via Deep Supervision

Learning useful node and graph representations with graph neural networks (GNNs) is a challenging task. It is known that deep GNNs suffer from over-smoothing where, as the number of layers increases, node representations become nearly indistinguishable and model performance on the downstream task degrades significantly. To address this problem, we propose deeply-supervised GNNs (DSGNNs), i.e., GNNs enhanced with deep supervision where representations learned at all layers are used for training. We show empirically that DSGNNs are resilient to over-smoothing and can outperform competitive benchmarks on node and graph property prediction problems.

Learning ODEs via Diffeomorphisms for Fast and Robust Integration

Advances in differentiable numerical integrators have enabled the use of gradient descent techniques to learn ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In the context of machine learning, differentiable solvers are central for Neural ODEs (NODEs), a class of deep learning models with continuous depth, rather than discrete layers. However, these integrators can be unsatisfactorily slow and inaccurate when learning systems of ODEs from long sequences, or when solutions of the system vary at widely different timescales in each dimension. In this paper we propose an alternative approach to learning ODEs from data: we represent the underlying ODE as a vector field that is related to another base vector field by a differentiable bijection, modelled by an invertible neural network. By restricting the base ODE to be amenable to integration, we can drastically speed up and improve the robustness of integration. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method in training and evaluating continuous neural networks models, as well as in learning benchmark ODE systems. We observe improvements of up to two orders of magnitude when integrating learned ODEs with GPUs computation.

Model Selection for Bayesian Autoencoders

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, we propose to optimize the distributional sliced-Wasserstein distance (DSWD) between the output of the autoencoder and the empirical data distribution. The advantages of this formulation are that we can estimate the DSWD based on samples and handle high-dimensional problems. We carry out posterior estimation of the BAE parameters via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and turn our BAE into a generative model by fitting a flexible Dirichlet mixture model in the latent space. Consequently, we obtain a powerful alternative to variational autoencoders, which are the preferred choice in modern applications of autoencoders for representation learning with uncertainty. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and quantitatively using a vast experimental campaign on a number of unsupervised learning tasks and show that, in small-data regimes where priors matter, our approach provides state-of-the-art results, outperforming multiple competitive baselines.

SigGPDE: Scaling Sparse Gaussian Processes on Sequential Data

Making predictions and quantifying their uncertainty when the input data is sequential is a fundamental learning challenge, recently attracting increasing attention. We develop SigGPDE, a new scalable sparse variational inference framework for Gaussian Processes (GPs) on sequential data. Our contribution is twofold. First, we construct inducing variables underpinning the sparse approximation so that the resulting evidence lower bound (ELBO) does not require any matrix inversion. Second, we show that the gradients of the GP signature kernel are solutions of a hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE). This theoretical insight allows us to build an efficient back-propagation algorithm to optimize the ELBO. We showcase the significant computational gains of SigGPDE compared to existing methods, while achieving state-of-the-art performance for classification tasks on large datasets of up to 1 million multivariate time series.