Do AI chatbots find what experts would? Effects of model, user role, and sample size on study retrieval for medical questions

Large language model (LLM) chatbots are increasingly used to answer clinical questions with citations to relevant clinical studies. Prior research has largely focused on citation fabrication, leaving a gap in evaluating the quality of retrieved studies and the factors driving their selection. In this study, we evaluated three general-purpose LLM chatbots: Claude Sonnet 5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and ChatGPT GPT-5.5. We prompted the models with clinical questions adapted from 20 review questions in Issues 6 and 7 of the 2026 Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, simulating patient, clinician, and evidence-synthesis researcher roles. Each chatbot was queried under each user role with four independent repetitions, yielding 720 responses. Each chatbot was asked to support its answers with primary clinical citations, which we benchmarked against the included and excluded study sets of the Cochrane reviews. On average, a chatbot response retrieved 39.2% $\pm$ 29.8% of Cochrane included studies, while citing 5.0% $\pm$ 9.4% of excluded studies. Recall of Cochrane included studies varied significantly by model and user role. ChatGPT achieved higher recall than Claude or Gemini (63.1% $\pm$ 29.5% vs. 37.0% $\pm$ 23.8% vs. 17.3% $\pm$ 13.1%; $p=2.0\times10^{-5}$). The researcher role yielded higher recall than the clinician or patient roles (42.8% $\pm$ 30.8% vs. 38.6% $\pm$ 28.9% vs. 36.1% $\pm$ 29.3%; $p=2.0\times10^{-5}$). Controlling for publication year, citations per year, and open-access status, sample size was the only independently significant predictor of retrieval (odds ratio 1.80 per 1-unit increase in log sample size, 95% CI 1.37-2.36, $p=2.34\times10^{-5}$). These findings suggest that while LLM chatbots can retrieve some studies identified by expert reviewers, their performance varies by model and user role, and they exhibit a bias toward clinical trials with larger sample sizes.

Agents' Last Exam

Recent AI systems have achieved strong results on a wide range of benchmarks, yet these gains have not translated into economically meaningful deployment across many professional domains. We argue that this gap is largely an evaluation problem: widely used benchmarks lack sustained performance measurement on real and economically valuable workflows. This paper introduces Agents' Last Exam (ALE), a benchmark designed to evaluate AI agents on long-horizon, economically valuable, real-world tasks with verifiable outcomes. Developed in collaboration with 250+ industry experts, ALE covers non-physical industries defined with reference to O*NET / SOC 2018 (the U.S. federal occupational taxonomy). It is organized around a task taxonomy with 55 subfields grouped into 13 industry clusters covering 1K+ tasks. Current results show that the hardest tier remains far from saturated: across mainstream harness and backbone configurations, the average full pass rate is 2.6%. ALE is designed as a living benchmark: its task pool grows continuously as new workflows and industries are onboarded. More broadly, ALE is intended not merely as another leaderboard, but as an instrument for closing the gap between benchmark success and GDP-relevant impact.

Rethinking Visual Attribution for Chest X-ray Reasoning in Large Vision Language Models

Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) show promise in medical applications, but their inability to faithfully ground responses in visual evidence raises serious concerns about clinical trustworthiness. While visual attribution methods are widely used to explain LVLM predictions, whether these explanations actually reflect the visual evidence underlying the model's decision is largely unverified, since ground-truth annotations for internal model reasoning are typically unavailable. We address this question for chest X-ray (CXR) reasoning by developing a causal evaluation framework that retains only CXR-VQA samples for which the expert-annotated region is verified, via counterfactual editing, to be causally responsible for the model's prediction. Using this framework across 11 attribution methods, six open-source LVLMs, and two output modes (direct answer and step-by-step reasoning), we find that existing attribution methods often fail to identify the evidence used by LVLMs. To address this failure, we propose MedFocus, a concept-based attribution method that localizes clinically meaningful anatomical regions via unbalanced optimal transport and measures their causal effect on model outputs through targeted interventions. MedFocus produces spatial, concept-level, and token-level attributions and substantially outperforms prior methods, taking a step toward more trustworthy attribution for medical LVLMs. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/gzxiong/medfocus/.

Large Language Models Lack Temporal Awareness of Medical Knowledge

The existing methods for evaluating the medical knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) are largely based on atemporal examination-style benchmarks, while in reality, medical knowledge is inherently dynamic and continuously evolves as new evidence emerges and treatments are approved. Consequently, evaluating medical knowledge without a temporal context may provide an incomplete assessment of whether LLMs can accurately reason about time-specific medical knowledge. Moreover, most medical data are historical, requiring the models not only to recall the correct knowledge, but also to know when that knowledge is correct. To bridge the gap, we built TempoMed-Bench, the first-of-its-kind benchmark for evaluating the temporal awareness of the LLMs in the medical domain through evolving guideline knowledge. Based on the TempoMed-Bench, our evaluation analysis first reveals that LLMs lack temporal awareness in medical knowledge through the key findings: (1) model performance on up-to-date medical knowledge exhibits a gradual linear decline over time rather than a sharp knowledge-cutoff behavior, suggesting that parametric medical knowledge is not strictly bounded by knowledge cutoffs; (2) LLMs consistently struggle more with recalling outdated historical medical knowledge than with up-to-date recommendations: accuracy of historical knowledge is only 25.37%-53.89% of up-to-date knowledge, indicating potential knowledge forgetting effects during training; and (3) LLMs often exhibit temporally inconsistent behaviors, where predictions fluctuate irregularly across neighboring years. We also show that the temporal awareness problem is a challenge that cannot be easily solved when integrated with agentic search tools (-3.15%-14.14%). This work highlights an important yet underexplored challenge and motivates future research on developing LLMs that can better encode time-specific medical knowledge.

MedHopQA: A Disease-Centered Multi-Hop Reasoning Benchmark and Evaluation Framework for LLM-Based Biomedical Question Answering

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) in the biomedical domain requires benchmarks that can distinguish reasoning from pattern matching and remain discriminative as model capabilities improve. Existing biomedical question answering (QA) benchmarks are limited in this respect. Multiple-choice formats can allow models to succeed through answer elimination rather than inference, while widely circulated exam-style datasets are increasingly vulnerable to performance saturation and training data contamination. Multi-hop reasoning, defined as the ability to integrate information across multiple sources to derive an answer, is central to clinically meaningful tasks such as diagnostic support, literature-based discovery, and hypothesis generation, yet remains underrepresented in current biomedical QA benchmarks. MedHopQA is a disease-centered multi-hop reasoning benchmark consisting of 1,000 expert-curated question-answer pairs introduced as a shared task at BioCreative IX. Each question requires synthesis of information across two distinct Wikipedia articles, and answers are provided in an open-ended free-text format. Gold annotations are augmented with ontology-grounded synonym sets from MONDO, NCBI Gene, and NCBI Taxonomy to support both lexical and concept-level evaluation. MedHopQA was constructed through a structured process combining human annotation, triage, iterative verification, and LLM-as-a-judge validation. To reduce leaderboard gaming and contamination risk, the 1,000 scored questions are embedded within a publicly downloadable set of 10,000 questions, with answers withheld, on a CodaBench leaderboard. MedHopQA provides both a benchmark and a reusable framework for constructing future biomedical QA datasets that prioritize compositional reasoning, saturation resistance, and contamination resistance as core design constraints.

Med-V1: Small Language Models for Zero-shot and Scalable Biomedical Evidence Attribution

Assessing whether an article supports an assertion is essential for hallucination detection and claim verification. While large language models (LLMs) have the potential to automate this task, achieving strong performance requires frontier models such as GPT-5 that are prohibitively expensive to deploy at scale. To efficiently perform biomedical evidence attribution, we present Med-V1, a family of small language models with only three billion parameters. Trained on high-quality synthetic data newly developed in this study, Med-V1 substantially outperforms (+27.0% to +71.3%) its base models on five biomedical benchmarks unified into a verification format. Despite its smaller size, Med-V1 performs comparably to frontier LLMs such as GPT-5, along with high-quality explanations for its predictions. We use Med-V1 to conduct a first-of-its-kind use case study that quantifies hallucinations in LLM-generated answers under different citation instructions. Results show that the format instruction strongly affects citation validity and hallucination, with GPT-5 generating more claims but exhibiting hallucination rates similar to GPT-4o. Additionally, we present a second use case showing that Med-V1 can automatically identify high-stakes evidence misattributions in clinical practice guidelines, revealing potentially negative public health impacts that are otherwise challenging to identify at scale. Overall, Med-V1 provides an efficient and accurate lightweight alternative to frontier LLMs for practical and real-world applications in biomedical evidence attribution and verification tasks. Med-V1 is available at https://github.com/ncbi-nlp/Med-V1.

CT-Bench: A Benchmark for Multimodal Lesion Understanding in Computed Tomography

Artificial intelligence (AI) can automatically delineate lesions on computed tomography (CT) and generate radiology report content, yet progress is limited by the scarcity of publicly available CT datasets with lesion-level annotations. To bridge this gap, we introduce CT-Bench, a first-of-its-kind benchmark dataset comprising two components: a Lesion Image and Metadata Set containing 20,335 lesions from 7,795 CT studies with bounding boxes, descriptions, and size information, and a multitask visual question answering benchmark with 2,850 QA pairs covering lesion localization, description, size estimation, and attribute categorization. Hard negative examples are included to reflect real-world diagnostic challenges. We evaluate multiple state-of-the-art multimodal models, including vision-language and medical CLIP variants, by comparing their performance to radiologist assessments, demonstrating the value of CT-Bench as a comprehensive benchmark for lesion analysis. Moreover, fine-tuning models on the Lesion Image and Metadata Set yields significant performance gains across both components, underscoring the clinical utility of CT-Bench.

MedCite: Can Language Models Generate Verifiable Text for Medicine?

Existing LLM-based medical question-answering systems lack citation generation and evaluation capabilities, raising concerns about their adoption in practice. In this work, we introduce \name, the first end-to-end framework that facilitates the design and evaluation of citation generation with LLMs for medical tasks. Meanwhile, we introduce a novel multi-pass retrieval-citation method that generates high-quality citations. Our evaluation highlights the challenges and opportunities of citation generation for medical tasks, while identifying important design choices that have a significant impact on the final citation quality. Our proposed method achieves superior citation precision and recall improvements compared to strong baseline methods, and we show that evaluation results correlate well with annotation results from professional experts.

Knowledge-guided Contextual Gene Set Analysis Using Large Language Models

Gene set analysis (GSA) is a foundational approach for interpreting genomic data of diseases by linking genes to biological processes. However, conventional GSA methods overlook clinical context of the analyses, often generating long lists of enriched pathways with redundant, nonspecific, or irrelevant results. Interpreting these requires extensive, ad-hoc manual effort, reducing both reliability and reproducibility. To address this limitation, we introduce cGSA, a novel AI-driven framework that enhances GSA by incorporating context-aware pathway prioritization. cGSA integrates gene cluster detection, enrichment analysis, and large language models to identify pathways that are not only statistically significant but also biologically meaningful. Benchmarking on 102 manually curated gene sets across 19 diseases and ten disease-related biological mechanisms shows that cGSA outperforms baseline methods by over 30%, with expert validation confirming its increased precision and interpretability. Two independent case studies in melanoma and breast cancer further demonstrate its potential to uncover context-specific insights and support targeted hypothesis generation.

TrialPanorama: Database and Benchmark for Systematic Review and Design of Clinical Trials

Developing artificial intelligence (AI) for vertical domains requires a solid data foundation for both training and evaluation. In this work, we introduce TrialPanorama, a large-scale, structured database comprising 1,657,476 clinical trial records aggregated from 15 global sources. The database captures key aspects of trial design and execution, including trial setups, interventions, conditions, biomarkers, and outcomes, and links them to standard biomedical ontologies such as DrugBank and MedDRA. This structured and ontology-grounded design enables TrialPanorama to serve as a unified, extensible resource for a wide range of clinical trial tasks, including trial planning, design, and summarization. To demonstrate its utility, we derive a suite of benchmark tasks directly from the TrialPanorama database. The benchmark spans eight tasks across two categories: three for systematic review (study search, study screening, and evidence summarization) and five for trial design (arm design, eligibility criteria, endpoint selection, sample size estimation, and trial completion assessment). The experiments using five state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) show that while general-purpose LLMs exhibit some zero-shot capability, their performance is still inadequate for high-stakes clinical trial workflows. We release TrialPanorama database and the benchmark to facilitate further research on AI for clinical trials.