Diversified Scaling Inference in Time Series Foundation Models

The advancement of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has been driven primarily by large-scale pre-training, but inference-time compute potential remains largely untapped. This work systematically investigates two questions: how do TSFMs behave under standard sampling-based inference scaling, and can controlled sampling diversity enhance performance? We first examine the properties of TSFMs under standard sampling often fail to adhere to scaling laws due to insufficient exploration of the solution space. Building on this, we then delve into diversified inference scaling via tailored time series perturbations to expand the generative distribution's support. We theoretically analyze the diversity-fidelity trade-off and derive a critical sample threshold for diversified sampling to outperform standard sampling. Extensive experiments across various TSFMs and datasets show proper diversified inference scaling yields substantial performance gains without parameter updates, establishing inference design as a critical, compute-efficient dimension of TSFM optimization. As an application, we propose RobustMSE, a rigorous metric to quantify the headroom performance of TSFM under a fixed budget. Overall, our findings clarify these factor interactions, enabling reliable performance via diverse large-scale inference time series in parallel environments without re-training TSFMs.

Mirage2Matter: A Physically Grounded Gaussian World Model from Video

The scalability of embodied intelligence is fundamentally constrained by the scarcity of real-world interaction data. While simulation platforms provide a promising alternative, existing approaches often suffer from a substantial visual and physical gap to real environments and rely on expensive sensors, precise robot calibration, or depth measurements, limiting their practicality at scale. We present Simulate Anything, a graphics-driven world modeling and simulation framework that enables efficient generation of high-fidelity embodied training data using only multi-view environment videos and off-the-shelf assets. Our approach reconstructs real-world environments into a photorealistic scene representation using 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), seamlessly capturing fine-grained geometry and appearance from video. We then leverage generative models to recover a physically realistic representation and integrate it into a simulation environment via a precision calibration target, enabling accurate scale alignment between the reconstructed scene and the real world. Together, these components provide a unified, editable, and physically grounded world model. Vision Language Action (VLA) models trained on our simulated data achieve strong zero-shot performance on downstream tasks, matching or even surpassing results obtained with real-world data, highlighting the potential of reconstruction-driven world modeling for scalable and practical embodied intelligence training.

SimLLM: Fine-Tuning Code LLMs for SimPy-Based Queueing System Simulation

The Python package SimPy is widely used for modeling queueing systems due to its flexibility, simplicity, and smooth integration with modern data analysis and optimization frameworks. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have shown strong ability in generating clear and executable code, making them powerful and suitable tools for writing SimPy queueing simulation code. However, directly employing closed-source models like GPT-4o to generate such code may lead to high computational costs and raise data privacy concerns. To address this, we fine-tune two open-source LLMs, Qwen-Coder-7B and DeepSeek-Coder-6.7B, on curated SimPy queueing data, which enhances their code-generating performance in executability, output-format compliance, and instruction-code consistency. Particularly, we proposed a multi-stage fine-tuning framework comprising two stages of supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and one stage of direct preference optimization (DPO), progressively enhancing the model's ability in SimPy-based queueing simulation code generation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that both fine-tuned models achieve substantial improvements in executability, output-format compliance, and instruct consistency. These results confirm that domain-specific fine-tuning can effectively transform compact open-source code models into reliable SimPy simulation generators which provide a practical alternative to closed-source LLMs for education, research, and operational decision support.

Latent Variable Causal Discovery under Selection Bias

Addressing selection bias in latent variable causal discovery is important yet underexplored, largely due to a lack of suitable statistical tools: While various tools beyond basic conditional independencies have been developed to handle latent variables, none have been adapted for selection bias. We make an attempt by studying rank constraints, which, as a generalization to conditional independence constraints, exploits the ranks of covariance submatrices in linear Gaussian models. We show that although selection can significantly complicate the joint distribution, interestingly, the ranks in the biased covariance matrices still preserve meaningful information about both causal structures and selection mechanisms. We provide a graph-theoretic characterization of such rank constraints. Using this tool, we demonstrate that the one-factor model, a classical latent variable model, can be identified under selection bias. Simulations and real-world experiments confirm the effectiveness of using our rank constraints.

Learning by Analogy: A Causal Framework for Composition Generalization

Compositional generalization -- the ability to understand and generate novel combinations of learned concepts -- enables models to extend their capabilities beyond limited experiences. While effective, the data structures and principles that enable this crucial capability remain poorly understood. We propose that compositional generalization fundamentally requires decomposing high-level concepts into basic, low-level concepts that can be recombined across similar contexts, similar to how humans draw analogies between concepts. For example, someone who has never seen a peacock eating rice can envision this scene by relating it to their previous observations of a chicken eating rice. In this work, we formalize these intuitive processes using principles of causal modularity and minimal changes. We introduce a hierarchical data-generating process that naturally encodes different levels of concepts and their interaction mechanisms. Theoretically, we demonstrate that this approach enables compositional generalization supporting complex relations between composed concepts, advancing beyond prior work that assumes simpler interactions like additive effects. Critically, we also prove that this latent hierarchical structure is provably recoverable (identifiable) from observable data like text-image pairs, a necessary step for learning such a generative process. To validate our theory, we apply insights from our theoretical framework and achieve significant improvements on benchmark datasets.

Beyond the Black Box: Identifiable Interpretation and Control in Generative Models via Causal Minimality

Deep generative models, while revolutionizing fields like image and text generation, largely operate as opaque black boxes, hindering human understanding, control, and alignment. While methods like sparse autoencoders (SAEs) show remarkable empirical success, they often lack theoretical guarantees, risking subjective insights. Our primary objective is to establish a principled foundation for interpretable generative models. We demonstrate that the principle of causal minimality -- favoring the simplest causal explanation -- can endow the latent representations of diffusion vision and autoregressive language models with clear causal interpretation and robust, component-wise identifiable control. We introduce a novel theoretical framework for hierarchical selection models, where higher-level concepts emerge from the constrained composition of lower-level variables, better capturing the complex dependencies in data generation. Under theoretically derived minimality conditions (manifesting as sparsity or compression constraints), we show that learned representations can be equivalent to the true latent variables of the data-generating process. Empirically, applying these constraints to leading generative models allows us to extract their innate hierarchical concept graphs, offering fresh insights into their internal knowledge organization. Furthermore, these causally grounded concepts serve as levers for fine-grained model steering, paving the way for transparent, reliable systems.

Towards Effective and Efficient Long Video Understanding of Multimodal Large Language Models via One-shot Clip Retrieval

Due to excessive memory overhead, most Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) can only process videos of limited frames. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient paradigm to remedy this shortcoming, termed One-shot video-Clip based Retrieval AuGmentation (OneClip-RAG). Compared with existing video RAG methods, OneClip-RAG makes full use of the merits of video clips for augmented video understanding in terms of both knowledge integrity and semantic coherence. Besides, it is also equipped with a novel query-guided video chunking algorithm that can unify clip chunking and cross-modal retrieval in one processing step, avoiding redundant computations. To improve instruction following, we further propose a new dataset called SynLongVideo and design a progressive training regime for OneClip-RAG. OneClip-RAG is plugged into five recent MLLMs and validated on a set of long-video benchmarks. Experimental results not only show the obvious performance gains by OneClip-RAG over MLLMs, e.g., boosting InternLV2 8B and Qwen2-VL 7B to the level of GPT-4o on MLVU, but also show its superior efficiency in handling long videos. e.g., enabling LLaVA-Video understand up to an hour of videos in less than 2.2 minutes on a single 4090 GPU.

Selective Mixup for Debiasing Question Selection in Computerized Adaptive Testing

Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) is a widely used technology for evaluating learners' proficiency in online education platforms. By leveraging prior estimates of proficiency to select questions and updating the estimates iteratively based on responses, CAT enables personalized learner modeling and has attracted substantial attention. Despite this progress, most existing works focus primarily on improving diagnostic accuracy, while overlooking the selection bias inherent in the adaptive process. Selection Bias arises because the question selection is strongly influenced by the estimated proficiency, such as assigning easier questions to learners with lower proficiency and harder ones to learners with higher proficiency. Since the selection depends on prior estimation, this bias propagates into the diagnosis model, which is further amplified during iterative updates, leading to misalignment and biased predictions. Moreover, the imbalanced nature of learners' historical interactions often exacerbates the bias in diagnosis models. To address this issue, we propose a debiasing framework consisting of two key modules: Cross-Attribute Examinee Retrieval and Selective Mixup-based Regularization. First, we retrieve balanced examinees with relatively even distributions of correct and incorrect responses and use them as neutral references for biased examinees. Then, mixup is applied between each biased examinee and its matched balanced counterpart under label consistency. This augmentation enriches the diversity of bias-conflicting samples and smooths selection boundaries. Finally, extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets with multiple advanced diagnosis models demonstrate that our method substantially improves both the generalization ability and fairness of question selection in CAT.

MixAR: Mixture Autoregressive Image Generation

Autoregressive (AR) approaches, which represent images as sequences of discrete tokens from a finite codebook, have achieved remarkable success in image generation. However, the quantization process and the limited codebook size inevitably discard fine-grained information, placing bottlenecks on fidelity. Motivated by this limitation, recent studies have explored autoregressive modeling in continuous latent spaces, which offers higher generation quality. Yet, unlike discrete tokens constrained by a fixed codebook, continuous representations lie in a vast and unstructured space, posing significant challenges for efficient autoregressive modeling. To address these challenges, we introduce MixAR, a novel framework that leverages mixture training paradigms to inject discrete tokens as prior guidance for continuous AR modeling. MixAR is a factorized formulation that leverages discrete tokens as prior guidance for continuous autoregressive prediction. We investigate several discrete-continuous mixture strategies, including self-attention (DC-SA), cross-attention (DC-CA), and a simple approach (DC-Mix) that replaces homogeneous mask tokens with informative discrete counterparts. Moreover, to bridge the gap between ground-truth training tokens and inference tokens produced by the pre-trained AR model, we propose Training-Inference Mixture (TI-Mix) to achieve consistent training and generation distributions. In our experiments, we demonstrate a favorable balance of the DC-Mix strategy between computational efficiency and generation fidelity, and consistent improvement of TI-Mix.

Optimizing Sensor Placement in Urban Storm Sewers: A Data-Driven Sparse Sensing Approach

Urban surface water flooding, triggered by intense rainfall overwhelming drainage systems, is increasingly frequent and widespread. While flood prediction and monitoring in high spatial-temporal resolution are desired, practical constraints in time, budget, and technology hinder its full implementation. How to monitor urban drainage networks and predict flow conditions under constrained resource is a major challenge. This study presents a data-driven sparse sensing (DSS) framework, integrated with EPA-SWMM, to optimize sensor placement and reconstruct peak flowrates in a stormwater system, using the Woodland Avenue catchment in Duluth, Minnesota, as a case study. We utilized a SWMM model to generate a training dataset of peak flowrate profiles across the stormwater network. Furthermore, we applied DSS - leveraging singular value decomposition for dimensionality reduction and QR factorization for sensor allocation - to identify the optimal monitoring nodes based on the simulated training dataset. We then validated the representativeness of these identified monitoring nodes by comparing the DSS-reconstructed peak flowrate profiles with those obtained from SWMM. Three optimally placed sensors among 77 nodes achieved satisfactory reconstruction performance with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.92-0.95 (25th to 75th percentiles). In addition, the model showed good robustness to uncertainty in measurements. Its robustness to sensor failures is location-dependent and improves with the number of sensors deployed. The framework balances computational efficiency and physical interpretability, enabling high-accuracy flow reconstruction with minimal sensors. This DSS framework can be further integrated with predictive models to realize flood early warning and real-time control under limited sensing and monitoring resource.